Download or read book Understanding and Overcoming Biases in Judgment and Decision Making With Real Life Consequences written by Yasmina Okan and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-12-01 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.

Download or read book Thinking Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Download or read book Reducing Underage Drinking written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2004-03-26 with total page 761 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alcohol use by young people is extremely dangerous - both to themselves and society at large. Underage alcohol use is associated with traffic fatalities, violence, unsafe sex, suicide, educational failure, and other problem behaviors that diminish the prospects of future success, as well as health risks â€" and the earlier teens start drinking, the greater the danger. Despite these serious concerns, the media continues to make drinking look attractive to youth, and it remains possible and even easy for teenagers to get access to alcohol. Why is this dangerous behavior so pervasive? What can be done to prevent it? What will work and who is responsible for making sure it happens? Reducing Underage Drinking addresses these questions and proposes a new way to combat underage alcohol use. It explores the ways in which may different individuals and groups contribute to the problem and how they can be enlisted to prevent it. Reducing Underage Drinking will serve as both a game plan and a call to arms for anyone with an investment in youth health and safety.

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Download or read book Cognitive Biases written by Victor Bell and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2021-09-22 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Powerful Hidden Forces (Cognitive Biases) Impair Our Decisions. Here is a Comprehensive Collection of these Biases to Help You Understand How They Work and How to Overcome Them Are you a manager in the financial services sector, and wish to avoid a situation like the recent financial crisis? Do you know that all of us have mental blind spots which prevent us from being rational? If you have seen or read about the recent financial crisis that straddled across the globe and brought down some of the oldest and most venerated financial institutions in the world, then you need this book! In this book, I share authentic research findings on cognitive biases and how they impact our judgment. These are powerful biases that you must avoid in order to succeed. Improve Your Judgment by Knowing How Biases Work This book is a comprehensive guide on cognitive biases, with inputs from real academic research with full references. If you are a financial sector executive and want to learn how to improve decisions, then this book is for you. In this book you will: - Identify the most powerful cognitive biases that impair business and financial decisions - Understand how cognitive biases work - Learn techniques to overcome them Here are the answers to some questions you might have about this book: Q: What is this book about? A: This book is a guide on how to identify cognitive biases. In this book, you learn about powerful biases which afflict the world of business and banking. Understanding how biases work (Bias-in-Action) can help avoid these biases, and at times even use the presence of biases in our competitors to our advantage. Q: What kind of techniques will I get to learn in this book? A: This is a comprehensive collection of all empirically proven cognitive biases that impair our decisions. In this book, I bring out the most powerful cognitive biases that impair judgment. You will also get to learn about more biases that impair decisions in business and banking. Q: Do I need to have prior qualifications before I read this book? A: The only thing that is required is your keenness to learn. Some experience in the financial sector or knowledge of basic economics can make the grasping faster, but it is not a prerequisite. Every day that you delay is another day that you stagnate in your growth as a professional. Take action now and buy this book by clicking the 'Buy now with 1-click' button

Download or read book Judgment in Managerial Decision Making written by Max H. Bazerman and published by Wiley Global Education. This book was released on 2012-10-16 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral decision research provides many important insights into managerial behavior. From negotiation to investment decisions, the authors weave behavioral decision research into the organizational realm by examining judgment in a variety of managerial contexts. Embedded with the latest research and theories, Managerial Decision Making 8th Edition gives students the opportunity to understand their own decision-making tendencies, learn strategies for overcoming cognitive biases, and become better decision makers.

Download or read book Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Download or read book The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making written by Gideon Keren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-12-14 with total page 1064 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

Download or read book Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making written by Derek J. Koehler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

Download or read book Beating Biases written by Henry Priest and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-20 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Biased BrainMan is a 'Rational Animal'. Right? Wrong! Research in economics and psychology has shown that human beings are systematically biased. They misjudge situations in fairly regular patterns. In the urgency of the existential pursuit we often deploy shortcuts and fall prey to errors of judgment.Stronger Biases and Weaker Biases?These shortcuts and errors of judgment, known as heuristics and biases, affect all of us. Some of them occur frequently and better known. Others occur less frequently and are lesser known. But their effect is the same - to impair our judgment when they occur.Knowing is Half the Battle WonThe financial crisis of the 2000s brought cognitive biases to common knowledge. Many of us know the most frequently occurring cognitive biases. But what about the less frequently occurring ones? Knowing them can prime us to identify them faster and plan an intervention. As they say 'know thy enemy'. Know Thy EnemyThis compilation presents 101 less frequently occurring biases and heuristics. Understanding how they work (Bias-in-Action) can help avoid these biases, and at times even use their presence in our competitors to our advantage.Read on....

Download or read book Judgment in Managerial Decision Making written by Max H. Bazerman and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2001-07-27 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Author is a leading theorist in negotiation and decision-making.

Download or read book Beyond the Horizon A Young Adult s Guide to Thriving in Life Career and Beyond written by Andrew Lim and published by Andrew Lim Mao Tung. This book was released on with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Unlock the door to your limitless potential with 'Beyond the Horizon: A Young Adult's Guide to Thriving in Life - Career and Beyond.' In this transformative guidebook, author [Author's Name] offers a roadmap to success and fulfillment, empowering young adults to navigate the complexities of the modern world with confidence and clarity. Through a captivating blend of personal anecdotes, practical advice, and expert insights, 'Beyond the Horizon' equips readers with the tools they need to overcome obstacles, seize opportunities, and create a life of purpose and passion. From setting ambitious goals to cultivating resilience, from building meaningful relationships to pursuing a fulfilling career, this book covers all aspects of young adulthood with wisdom and wit. Whether you're a recent graduate embarking on your professional journey or a young adult seeking direction and inspiration, 'Beyond the Horizon' is your indispensable guide to unlocking your full potential and reaching new heights of success and fulfillment. Get ready to embark on a journey of self-discovery, growth, and transformation—it's time to go beyond the horizon and claim the life you've always dreamed of."

Download or read book The Optimism Bias written by Tali Sharot and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2011-06-14 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.

Download or read book The Myth of Experience written by Emre Soyer and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experience is a great teacher . . . except when it isn't. In this groundbreaking guide, learn how the past can deceive and limit us -- and how healthy skepticism can build a better world. Our personal experience is key to who we are and what we do. We judge others by their experience and are judged by ours. Society venerates experience. From doctors to teachers to managers to presidents, the more experience the better. It's not surprising then, that we often fall back on experience when making decisions, an easy way to make judgements about the future, a constant teacher that provides clear lessons. Yet, this intuitive reliance on experience is misplaced. In The Myth of Experience, behavioral scientists Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth take a transformative look at experience and the many ways it deceives and misleads us. From distorting the past to limiting creativity to reducing happiness, experience can cause misperceptions and then reinforce them without our awareness. Instead, the authors argue for a nuanced approach, where a healthy skepticism toward the lessons of experience results in more reliable decisions and sustainable growth. Soyer and Hogarth illustrate the flaws of experience -- with real-life examples from bloodletting to personal computers to pandemics -- and distill cutting-edge research as a guide to decision-making, as well as provide the remedies needed to improve our judgments and choices in the workplace and beyond.

Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.