Download or read book Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management written by Keith J Beven and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.

Download or read book Index to Theses with Abstracts Accepted for Higher Degrees by the Universities of Great Britain and Ireland and the Council for National Academic Awards written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flooding is the natural hazard with the greatest economic and social impact in the United States, and these impacts are becoming more severe over time. Catastrophic flooding from recent hurricanes, including Superstorm Sandy in New York (2012) and Hurricane Harvey in Houston (2017), caused billions of dollars in property damage, adversely affected millions of people, and damaged the economic well-being of major metropolitan areas. Flooding takes a heavy toll even in years without a named storm or event. Major freshwater flood events from 2004 to 2014 cost an average of $9 billion in direct damage and 71 lives annually. These figures do not include the cumulative costs of frequent, small floods, which can be similar to those of infrequent extreme floods. Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States contributes to existing knowledge by examining real-world examples in specific metropolitan areas. This report identifies commonalities and variances among the case study metropolitan areas in terms of causes, adverse impacts, unexpected problems in recovery, or effective mitigation strategies, as well as key themes of urban flooding. It also relates, as appropriate, causes and actions of urban flooding to existing federal resources or policies.

Download or read book Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.

Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.

Download or read book Flood Risk Assessment and Management written by Andreas H. Schumann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flood catastrophes which happened world-wide have shown that it is not sufficient to characterize the hazard caused by the natural phenomenon "flood" with the well-known 3M-approach (measuring, mapping and modelling). Due to the recent shift in paradigms from a safety oriented approach to risk based planning it became necessary to consider the harmful impacts of hazards. The planning tasks changed from attempts to minimise hazards towards interventions to reduce exposure or susceptibility and nowadays to enhance the capacities to increase resilience. Scientific interest shifts more and more towards interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to avoid disaster. This book deals with many aspects of flood risk management in a comprehensive way. As risks depend on hazard and vulnerabilities, not only geophysical tools for flood forecasting and planning are presented, but also socio-economic problems of flood management are discussed. Starting with precipitation and meteorological tools to its forecasting, hydrological models are described in their applications for operational flood forecasts, considering model uncertainties and their interactions with hydraulic and groundwater models. With regard to flood risk planning, regionalization aspects and the options to utilize historic floods are discussed. New hydrological tools for flood risk assessments for dams and reservoirs are presented. Problems and options to quantify socio-economic risks and how to consider them in multi-criteria assessments of flood risk planning are discussed. This book contributes to the contemporary efforts to reduce flood risk at the European scale. Using many real-world examples, it is useful for scientists and practitioners at different levels and with different interests.

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Download or read book The Nordic Seas written by Burton G. Hurdle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " ... as soon as one has traversed the greater part of the wild sea, one comes upon such a huge quantity of ice that nowhere in the whole world has the like been known." "This ice is of a wonderful nature. It lies at times quite still, as one would expect, with openings or large fjords in it; but sometimes its movement is so strong and rapid as to equal that of a ship running before the wind, and it drifts against the wind as often as with it." Kongespeilet - 1250 A.D. ("The Mirror of Kings") Modern societies require increasing amounts influence on the water mass and on the resulting of scientific information about the environment total environment of the region; therefore, cer tain of its characteristics will necessarily be in whieh they live and work. For the seas this information must describe the air above the sea, included.

Download or read book Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar written by V. N. Bringi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-08-30 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2001 book provides a detailed introduction to the principles of Doppler and polarimetric radar, focusing in particular on their use in the analysis of weather systems. The design features and operation of practical radar systems are highlighted throughout the book in order to illustrate important theoretical foundations. The authors begin by discussing background topics such as electromagnetic scattering, polarization, and wave propagation. They then deal in detail with the engineering aspects of pulsed Doppler polarimetric radar, including the relevant signal theory, spectral estimation techniques, and noise considerations. They close by examining a range of key applications in meteorology and remote sensing. The book will be of great use to graduate students of electrical engineering and atmospheric science as well as to practitioners involved in the applications of polarimetric radar systems.

Download or read book Aviation Turbulence written by Robert Sharman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.

Download or read book Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

Download or read book Global Flood Hazard written by Guy J-P. Schumann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-07-18 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Flood Hazard Subject Category Winner, PROSE Awards 2019, Earth Science Selected from more than 500 entries, demonstrating exceptional scholarship and making a significant contribution to the field of study. Flooding is a costly natural disaster in terms of damage to land, property and infrastructure. This volume describes the latest tools and technologies for modeling, mapping, and predicting large-scale flood risk. It also presents readers with a range of remote sensing data sets successfully used for predicting and mapping floods at different scales. These resources can enable policymakers, public planners, and developers to plan for, and respond to, flooding with greater accuracy and effectiveness. Describes the latest large-scale modeling approaches, including hydrological models, 2-D flood inundation models, and global flood forecasting models Showcases new tools and technologies such as Aqueduct, a new web-based tool used for global assessment and projection of future flood risk under climate change scenarios Features case studies describing best-practice uses of modeling techniques, tools, and technologies Global Flood Hazard is an indispensable resource for researchers, consultants, practitioners, and policy makers dealing with flood risk, flood disaster response, flood management, and flood mitigation.

Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Download or read book Mathematical Models of Large Watershed Hydrology written by Vijay P. Singh and published by Water Resources Publication. This book was released on 2002 with total page 930 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive account of some of the most popular models of large watershed hydrology ~~ of interest to all hydrologic modelers and model users and a welcome and timely edition to any modeling library

Download or read book Rainfall runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments written by Thorsten Wagener and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004-09-09 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important monograph is based on the results of a study on the identification of conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff models for gauged and ungauged catchments. The task of model identification remains difficult despite decades of research. A detailed problem analysis and an extensive review form the basis for the development of a Matlab® modelling toolkit consisting of two components: a Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Toolbox (RRMT) and a Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT). These are subsequently applied to study the tasks of model identification and evaluation. A novel dynamic identifiability approach has been developed for the gauged catchment case. The theory underlying the application of rainfall-runoff models for predictions in ungauged catchments is studied, problems are highlighted and promising ways to move forward are investigated. Modelling frameworks for both gauged and ungauged cases are developed. This book presents the first extensive treatment of rainfall-runoff model identification in gauged and ungauged catchments.

Download or read book Cities and Flooding written by Abhas K. Jha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 639 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Urban flooding is an increasing challenge today to the expanding cities and towns of developing countries. This Handbook is a state-of-the art, user-friendly operational guide that shows decision makers and specialists how to effectively manage the risk of floods in rapidly urbanizing settings--and within the context of a changing climate.