Download or read book Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book Data and Error Analysis written by William Lichten and published by Addison-Wesley. This book was released on 1999 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the lab/experimentation course in physics depts. and/or any course in physics, chemistry, geology, etc. with a lab component focusing on data and error analysis. Designed to help science students process data without lengthy and boring computations, this text/disk package provides useful algorithms and programs that allow students to do analysis more quickly than was previously possible. Using a "learn by doing" approach, it provides simple, handy rules for handling data and estimating errors both by graphical and analytic methods without long discussions and involved theoretical derivations.
Download or read book Particle Image Velocimetry written by Ronald J. Adrian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Particle image velocimetry, or PIV, refers to a class of methods used in experimental fluid mechanics to determine instantaneous fields of the vector velocity by measuring the displacements of numerous fine particles that accurately follow the motion of the fluid. Although the concept of measuring particle displacements is simple in essence, the factors that need to be addressed to design and implement PIV systems that achieve reliable, accurate, and fast measurements and to interpret the results are surprisingly numerous. The aim of this book is to analyze and explain them comprehensively.
Download or read book Risk Science written by Terje Aven and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-09-12 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk science is becoming increasingly important as businesses, policymakers and public sector leaders are tasked with decision-making and investment using varying levels of knowledge and information. Risk Science: An Introduction explores the theory and practice of risk science, providing concepts and tools for understanding and acting under conditions of uncertainty. The chapters in this book cover the fundamental concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models for how to understand, assess, communicate, manage and govern risk. These topics are presented and examined in a way which details how they relate, for example, how to characterize and communicate risk with particular emphasis on reflecting uncertainties; how to distinguish risk perception and professional risk judgments; how to assess risk and guide decision-makers, especially for cases involving large uncertainties and value differences; and how to integrate risk assessment with resilience-based strategies. The text provides a variety of examples and case studies that relate to highly visible and relevant issues facing risk academics, practitioners and non-risk leaders who must make risk-related decisions. This revised and updated second edition features an entirely new chapter on the integrity and quality of risk studies, and dealing with misinformation in the context of risk. Presenting both the foundational and most recent advancements in the subject matter, this work particularly suits students of risk science courses at college and university level. The book also provides broader key reading for students and scholars in other domains, including business, engineering and public health.
Download or read book Quantitative Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-03 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
Download or read book Data Uncertainty and Important Measures written by Christophe Simon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-03-13 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.
Download or read book Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease written by Alan L Buchman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 3428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This evidence-based book serves as a clinical manual as well as a reference guide for the diagnosis and management of common nutritional issues in relation to gastrointestinal disease. Chapters cover nutrition assessment; macro- and micronutrient absorption; malabsorption; food allergies; prebiotics and dietary fiber; probiotics and intestinal microflora; nutrition and GI cancer; nutritional management of reflux; nutrition in IBS and IBD; nutrition in acute and chronic pancreatitis; enteral nutrition; parenteral nutrition; medical and endoscopic therapy of obesity; surgical therapy of obesity; pharmacologic nutrition, and nutritional counseling.
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Download or read book Advances in Safety Reliability and Risk Management written by Christophe Berenguer and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering a wide range of topics on safety, reliability and risk management, the present publication will be of interest to academics and professionals working in a wide range of scientific, industrial and governmental sectors, including: Aeronautics and Aerospace; Chemical and Process Industry; Civil Engineering; Critical Infrastructures; Energy; Information Technology and Telecommunications; Land Transportation; Manufacturing; Maritime Transportation; Mechanical Engineering; Natural Hazards; Nuclear Industry; Offshore Industry; Policy Making and Public Planning.
Download or read book Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems written by Luca Podofillini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and
Download or read book Reliability and Safety Engineering written by Ajit Kumar Verma and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-08-09 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz., • electronics engineering, • software engineering, • mechanical engineering, • structural engineering, and • power systems engineering. They describe the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Case studies from typical nuclear power plants, as well as from structural, software, and electronic systems are also discussed. Reliability and Safety Engineering combines discussions of the existing literature on basic concepts and applications with state-of-the-art methods used in reliability and risk assessment of engineering systems. It is designed to assist practicing engineers, students and researchers in the areas of reliability engineering and risk analysis.
Download or read book Engineering Optimization 2014 written by Hélder Rodrigues and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-09-26 with total page 1078 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimization methodologies are fundamental instruments to tackle the complexity of today's engineering processes. Engineering Optimization 2014 is dedicated to optimization methods in engineering, and contains the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Engineering Optimization (ENGOPT2014, Lisbon, Portugal, 8-11 September 2014). The book will be of interest to engineers, applied mathematicians, and computer scientists working on research, development and practical applications of optimization methods in engineering.
Download or read book Understanding and Managing Threats to the Environment in South Eastern Europe written by Gorazd Mesko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-09 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents reflections on a variety of environmental issues in South-Eastern Europe from diverse contemporary scientific disciplines. The contributions address many crucial issues including national environmental policies, economic instruments for preventing crimes against the environment, international waste trafficking, threats to air, water and soil due to mining, management of dump areas, environment protection and food safety from a perspective of public health. The book will be a useful resource for researchers, developers and decision makers interested in the stability and sustainable development of the South-Eastern European countries.
Download or read book Dependability Modelling under Uncertainty written by Philipp Limbourg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-20 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mechatronic design processes have become shorter and more parallelized, induced by growing time-to-market pressure. Methods that enable quantitative analysis in early design stages are required, should dependability analyses aim to influence the design. Due to the limited amount of data in this phase, the level of uncertainty is high and explicit modeling of these uncertainties becomes necessary. This work introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability methods for early design stages. These include the propagation of uncertainty through dependability models, the activation of data from similar components for analyses and the integration of uncertain dependability predictions into an optimization framework. It is shown that Dempster-Shafer theory can be an alternative to probability theory in early design stage dependability predictions. Expert estimates can be represented, input uncertainty is propagated through the system and prediction uncertainty can be measured and interpreted. The resulting coherent methodology can be applied to represent the uncertainty in dependability models.
