Download or read book Uncertainty in Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.

Download or read book Managing Risk and Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-11-13 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Download or read book Uncertainty Management for Robust Industrial Design in Aeronautics written by Charles Hirsch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 819 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations.

Download or read book Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-12 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.

Download or read book Impact of Design Research on Industrial Practice written by Amaresh Chakrabarti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-11 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Showcasing exemplars of how various aspects of design research were successfully transitioned into and influenced, design practice, this book features chapters written by eminent international researchers and practitioners from industry on the Impact of Design Research on Industrial Practice. Chapters written by internationally acclaimed researchers of design analyse the findings (guidelines, methods and tools), technologies/products and educational approaches that have been transferred as tools, technologies and people to transform industrial practice of engineering design, whilst the chapters that are written by industrial practitioners describe their experience of how various tools, technologies and training impacted design practice. The main benefit of this book, for educators, researchers and practitioners in (engineering) design, will be access to a comprehensive coverage of case studies of successful transfer of outcomes of design research into practice; as well as guidelines and platforms for successful transfer of research into practice.

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing written by Andrew Dienstfrey and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-08-11 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed post-proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 2.5 Working Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, WoCoUQ 2011, held in Boulder, CO, USA, in August 2011. The 24 revised papers were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: UQ need: risk, policy, and decision making, UQ theory, UQ tools, UQ practice, and hot topics. The papers are followed by the records of the discussions between the participants and the speaker.

Download or read book Uncertainty Calibration and Probability written by C.F Dietrich and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All measurements are subject to error because no quantity can be known exactly; hence, any measurement has a probability of lying within a certain range. The more precise the measurement, the smaller the range of uncertainty. Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is a comprehensive treatment of the statistics and methods of estimating these calibration uncertainties. The book features the general theory of uncertainty involving the combination (convolution) of non-Gaussian, student t, and Gaussian distributions; the use of rectangular distributions to represent systematic uncertainties; and measurable and nonmeasurable uncertainties that require estimation. The author also discusses sources of measurement errors and curve fitting with numerous examples of uncertainty case studies. Many useful tables and computational formulae are included as well. All formulations are discussed and demonstrated with the minimum of mathematical knowledge assumed. This second edition offers additional examples in each chapter, and detailed additions and alterations made to the text. New chapters consist of the general theory of uncertainty and applications to industry and a new section discusses the use of orthogonal polynomials in curve fitting. Focusing on practical problems of measurement, Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is an invaluable reference tool for R&D laboratories in the engineering/manufacturing industries and for undergraduate and graduate students in physics, engineering, and metrology.

Download or read book Dependability Modelling under Uncertainty written by Philipp Limbourg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mechatronic design processes have become shorter and more parallelized, induced by growing time-to-market pressure. Methods that enable quantitative analysis in early design stages are required, should dependability analyses aim to influence the design. Due to the limited amount of data in this phase, the level of uncertainty is high and explicit modeling of these uncertainties becomes necessary. This work introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability methods for early design stages. These include the propagation of uncertainty through dependability models, the activation of data from similar components for analyses and the integration of uncertain dependability predictions into an optimization framework. It is shown that Dempster-Shafer theory can be an alternative to probability theory in early design stage dependability predictions. Expert estimates can be represented, input uncertainty is propagated through the system and prediction uncertainty can be measured and interpreted. The resulting coherent methodology can be applied to represent the uncertainty in dependability models.

Download or read book Cellular Manufacturing written by John X. Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's business world, competitiveness defines the industrial leading edge. Organizations and businesses of all sizes are adopting Lean manufacturing practices to increase efficiency and address worries about their bottom lines. In a detailed review of this staple of Lean manufacturing, Cellular Manufacturing: Mitigating Risk and Uncertainty ou

Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Download or read book Mechanics and Uncertainty written by Maurice Lemaire and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-16 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

Download or read book System Dependability Evaluation Including S dependency and Uncertainty written by Hans-Dieter Kochs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-14 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on system dependability modeling and calculation, considering the impact of s-dependency and uncertainty. The best suited approaches for practical system dependability modeling and calculation, (1) the minimal cut approach, (2) the Markov process approach, and (3) the Markov minimal cut approach as a combination of (1) and (2) are described in detail and applied to several examples. The stringently used Boolean logic during the whole development process of the approaches is the key for the combination of the approaches on a common basis. For large and complex systems, efficient approximation approaches, e.g. the probable Markov path approach, have been developed, which can take into account s-dependencies be-tween components of complex system structures. A comprehensive analysis of aleatory uncertainty (due to randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (due to lack of knowledge), and their combination, developed on the basis of basic reliability indices and evaluated with the Monte Carlo simulation method, has been carried out. The uncertainty impact on system dependability is investigated and discussed using several examples with different levels of difficulty. The applications cover a wide variety of large and complex (real-world) systems. Actual state-of-the-art definitions of terms of the IEC 60050-192:2015 standard, as well as the dependability indices, are used uniformly in all six chapters of the book.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Systems Practice How to Act written by Ray Ison and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-10 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how to do systems thinking and translate that thinking into praxis (theory informed practical action). It will be welcomed by those managing or governing in situations of complexity and uncertainty across all domains of professional and personal life. The development of capabilities to think and act systemically is an urgent priority. Humans are now a force of nature, affecting whole-earth dynamics including the earth's climate - we live in an Anthropocene or Capitalocene and are confronted by the emergence of a ‘post-truth’, ‘big data’ world. What we have developed, organisationally and institutionally, seems very fragile. An imperative exists to recover whatever systemic sensibilities we still retain, to foster systems literacy and to invest in systems thinking in practice capability. This will be needed in future at personal, group, community, regional, national and international levels, all at the same time. Systems Practice: How to Act is structured into four parts. Part I introduces the societal need to invest in systems thinking in practice, in contexts of uncertainty and complexity epitomised by the challenges of responding to human-induced climate change. Part II unpacks what is involved in systems practice by means of a juggler isophor; examining situations where systems thinking offers useful understanding and opportunities for change. Part III identifies the main factors that constrain the uptake of systems practice and makes the case for innovation in practice by means of systemic inquiry, systemic action research and systemic intervention. The book concludes with Part IV, which critically examines how systems practice is, or might be, utilised at different levels from the personal to the societal./div

Download or read book Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

Download or read book Advances in Uncertainty Quantification and Optimization Under Uncertainty with Aerospace Applications written by Massimiliano Vasile and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-27 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2020 International Conference on Uncertainty Quantification & Optimization gathered together internationally renowned researchers in the fields of optimization and uncertainty quantification. The resulting proceedings cover all related aspects of computational uncertainty management and optimization, with particular emphasis on aerospace engineering problems. The book contributions are organized under four major themes: Applications of Uncertainty in Aerospace & Engineering Imprecise Probability, Theory and Applications Robust and Reliability-Based Design Optimisation in Aerospace Engineering Uncertainty Quantification, Identification and Calibration in Aerospace Models This proceedings volume is useful across disciplines, as it brings the expertise of theoretical and application researchers together in a unified framework.

Download or read book Software Project Effort Estimation written by Adam Trendowicz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-07 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Software effort estimation is one of the oldest and most important problems in software project management, and thus today there are a large number of models, each with its own unique strengths and weaknesses in general, and even more importantly, in relation to the environment and context in which it is to be applied. Trendowicz and Jeffery present a comprehensive look at the principles of software effort estimation and support software practitioners in systematically selecting and applying the most suitable effort estimation approach. Their book not only presents what approach to take and how to apply and improve it, but also explains why certain approaches should be used in specific project situations. Moreover, it explains popular estimation methods, summarizes estimation best-practices, and provides guidelines for continuously improving estimation capability. Additionally, the book offers invaluable insights into project management in general, discussing issues including project trade-offs, risk assessment, and organizational learning. Overall, the authors deliver an essential reference work for software practitioners responsible for software effort estimation and planning in their daily work and who want to improve their estimation skills. At the same time, for lecturers and students the book can serve as the basis of a course in software processes, software estimation, or project management.