Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics Volatility and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

Download or read book Limited Attention Uncertainty and Asset Price Dynamics written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard neoclassical models in finance assume that individuals form expectations and make decisions using all available information. While these theories dictate that new information is instantaneously incorporated into asset prices, our minds and cognitive resources are finite and we allocate our attention selectively. Moreover, the amount of information relevant to the valuation of an asset is far from trivial in the current information society. This has important implications for asset pricing because attention is a prerequisite for distilling and processing information into prices. The underlying motivation of the empirical essays in this dissertation is to better understand the implications of boundedly rational market participants and to examine the role of limited attention. Using innovative datasets to measure attention, it provides new insights into how limited attention affects the expectation formation and behavior of financial agents, such as investors and analysts, and how this ultimately feeds into asset price dynamics. In this way, this dissertation contributes to a further development of the finance discipline from its neoclassical foundations towards a more realistic approach that integrates behavioral phenomena. In the first chapter we empirically test the rational inattention model for exchange rates. Rational inattention theory provides a framework of how cognitively limited agents might simplify and summarize available information. The framework is particularly suitable to study the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals, because exchange rates are largely determined by expectations of market participants. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of the rational inattention theory of exchange rates.

Download or read book Uncertainty Expectations and Financial Instability written by Eric Barthalon and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2014-11-18 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.

Download or read book Asset Pricing for Dynamic Economies written by Sumru Altug and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-09-11 with total page 686 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to general equilibrium modelling takes an integrated approach to the analysis of macroeconomics and finance. It provides students, practitioners, and policymakers with an easily accessible set of tools that can be used to analyze a wide range of economic phenomena. Key features: • Provides a consistent framework for understanding dynamic economic models • Introduces key concepts in finance in a discrete time setting • Develops simple recursive approach for analyzing a variety of problems in a dynamic, stochastic environment • Sequentially builds up the analysis of consumption, production, and investment models to study their implications for allocations and asset prices • Reviews business cycle analysis and the business cycle implications of monetary and international models • Covers latest research on asset pricing in overlapping generations models and on models with borrowing constraints and transaction costs • Includes end-of-chapter exercises allowing readers to monitor their understanding of each topic Online resources are available at www.cambridge.org/altug_labadie

Download or read book Economic Uncertainty Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays written by Anastasios G Malliaris and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.

Download or read book Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-09-09 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Download or read book Investment Under Uncertainty written by Avinash K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Download or read book Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices written by Giovanni Cespa and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We show that prices are farther away from (closer to) fundamentals compared with average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in turn, occur whenever traders speculate on short-run price movements. For a given, positive level of residual payoff uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a "Keynesian" region; the complementary region is "Hayekian" in that prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which traders abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset "long term prospects and those only." The analysis explains accommodation and trend chasing strategies as well as momentum and reversal.

Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Download or read book Natural expectations macroeconomic dynamics and asset pricing written by Andreas Fuster and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does an economy behave if (1) fundamentals are truly hump-shaped, exhibiting momentum in the short run and partial mean reversion in the long run, and (2) agents do not know that fundamentals are hump-shaped and base their beliefs on parsimonious models that they fit to the available data? A class of parsimonious models leads to qualitatively similar biases and generates empirically observed patterns in asset prices and macroeconomic dynamics. First, parsimonious models will robustly pick up the short-term momentum in fundamentals but will generally fail to fully capture the long-run mean reversion. Beliefs will therefore be characterized by endogenous extrapolation bias and pro-cyclical excess optimism. Second, asset prices will be highly volatile and exhibit partial mean reversion-i.e., overreaction. Excess returns will be negatively predicted by lagged excess returns, P/E ratios, and consumption growth. Third, real economic activity will have amplified cycles. For example, consumption growth will be negatively auto-correlated in the medium run. Fourth, the equity premium will be large. Agents will perceive that equities are very risky when in fact long-run equity returns will co-vary only weakly with long-run consumption growth. If agents had rational expectations, the equity premium would be close to zero. Fifth, sophisticated agents-i.e., those who are assumed to know the true model-will hold far more equity than investors who use parsimonious models. Moreover, sophisticated agents will follow a counter-cyclical asset allocation policy. These predicted effects are qualitatively confirmed in U.S. data.

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Expectations Data in Asset Pricing written by Klaus Adam and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asset prices reflect investors' subjective beliefs about future cash flows and prices. In this chapter, we review recent research on the formation of these beliefs and their role in asset pricing. Return expectations of individual and professional investors in surveys differ markedly from those implied by rational expectations models. Variation in subjective expectations of future cash flows and price levels appear to account for much of aggregate stock market volatility. Mapping the survey evidence into agent expectations in asset pricing models is complicated by measurement errors and belief heterogeneity. Recent efforts to build asset pricing models that match the survey evidence on subjective belief dynamics include various forms of learning about payout or price dynamics, extrapolative expectations, and diagnostic expectations. Challenges for future research include the exploration of subjective risk perceptions, aggregation of measured beliefs, and links between asset market expectations and the macroeconomy.

Download or read book The Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Christian Gollier and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compilation of ground-breaking papers contained in this collection offers a complete description of the evolution of knowledge in the economics of risk and time, from its early twentieth-century explorations to its current diversity of approaches. The papers focus first on the basic decisions under uncertainty, and then on asset pricing. They cover both classical expected utility approach and its non-expected utility generalizations, with applications to dynamic portfolio choices, insurance, risk sharing, and risk prevention. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, this collection will be valuable for scholars in finance and macroeconomics, particularly those with an interest in the modeling foundations of consumer and investor decisions under uncertainty.

Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics written by Roman Frydman and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: