Download or read book Uncertainty Estimation of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change written by Tarana Aftab Solaiman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates (a) downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and (b) assessment of future hydrologic extremes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are designed to simulate time series of future climate responses accounting for human induced greenhouse gas emissions. The present study addresses the following limitations of climate change impact research: (i) limited availability of observed historical information; (ii) limited research on the detection of changes in hydrologic extremes; and (iii) coarse spatio-temporal resolution of AOGCMs for use at regional or local scale. Downscaled output from a single AOGCM with a single emission scenario represents only a single trajectory of all possible future climate realizations and cannot be representative of the full extent of climate change. Present research, therefore addresses the following questions: (i) how should the AOGCM outputs be selected to assess the severity of extreme climate events?; (ii) should climate research adopt equal weights from AOGCM outputs to generate future climate?; and (iii) what is the probability of the future extreme events to be more severe? Assessment of regional reanalysis hydroclimatic data has shown promising potential as an addition to the observed data in data scarce regions. A new approach using statistical downscaling based nonparametric datadriven kernel estimator is developed for quantifying uncertainties from multiple AOGCMs and emission scenarios. The results are compared with a Bayesian reliability ensemble average method. The generated future climate scenarios represent the nature and progression of uncertainties from several global climate models and their emission scenarios. Treating the extreme precipitation indices as independent realization at every time step, the kernel estimator provides variable weights to the multi-model quantification of uncertainties. The probabilities of the extreme indices have added useful insight into future climate conditions. Finally, the current method of developing future rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves is extended by introducing a probabilistic weighted curve to include AOGCM and emission scenario uncertainties using the plug-in kernel. Present research has thus expanded the existing knowledge of dealing with the uncertainties of extreme events.

Download or read book Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems written by Patrick Willems and published by IWA Publishing. This book was released on 2012-09-14 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. Authors: Patrick Willems, University of Leuven, Hydraulics division; Jonas Olsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Simon Beecham, University of South Australia, School of Natural and Built Environments; Assela Pathirana, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Ida Bulow Gregersen, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering; Henrik Madsen, DHI Water & Environment, Water Resources Department; Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, McGill University, Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics

Download or read book Extremes in a Changing Climate written by Amir AghaKouchak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a collection of the state-of-the-art methodologies and approaches suggested for detecting extremes, trend analysis, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties associated with extreme value analysis in a changing climate. This volume is designed so that it can be used as the primary reference on the available methodologies for analysis of climate extremes. Furthermore, the book addresses current hydrometeorologic global data sets and their applications for global scale analysis of extremes. While the main objective is to deliver recent theoretical concepts, several case studies on extreme climate conditions are provided. Audience The book is suitable for teaching in graduate courses in the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth System Science, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.

Download or read book Floods in a Changing Climate written by Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-22 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides measurement, analysis and modeling methods for assessment of trends in extreme precipitation events, for academic researchers and professionals.

Download or read book Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research written by Douglas Maraun and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.

Download or read book Regional Frequency Analysis Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events Under Climate Change written by Zhe Yang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme rainfall events have a long history of causing large economic damages in urban areas and even loss of human life. Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall intensities for different rainfall durations are essential for the effective planning of drainage systems under climate change to balance the construction costs and potential damages caused by future extreme rainfall events. The information required for design rainfall events can be obtained through frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. However, extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from the traditional approach of frequency analysis have become increasingly unreliable under climate change. With increasing global temperatures and the uneven distribution of atmosphere moisture, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events can experience accelerated changes. Thus, urban drainage systems designed based on extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from historical records are becoming increasingly ineffective. Under the impacts of climate change, extreme rainfall events are becoming one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Frequency analysis of the extreme rainfall events used to estimate the probability of exceedance of extreme rainfall events of a given magnitude in the future context can generate unreliable estimates under climate change because of two issues. Firstly, there are often insufficient data records available for the quantification of extreme rainfall events of interest from a design perspective. Since extreme rainfall events are rare, there is large uncertainty in quantile estimates obtained from using only the information from the site of interest. Thus, regional frequency analysis, which expands the data records through gathering information from sites sharing similar rainfall patterns, is widely used and is applied in this research. Secondly, the traditional assumption that there is a repetitive pattern in the occurrences of extreme rainfall events has become invalid in a nonstationary environment. Since extreme rainfall patterns can be altered in the future, estimates for rainfall quantiles obtained from using frequency analysis in a historical stationary environment can be unreliable when applied for future conditions. Further research is required into applying the regional frequency analysis approach for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles under climate change. To provide reliable regional estimates of rainfall quantiles for different rainfall durations under climate change, this research improves regional frequency analysis through exploring the following issues: 1) An improved procedure for homogeneous group formation for historical stationary periods. Extreme rainfall events have been affected by climate change. A three-layer searching algorithm is proposed for homogeneous group formation in a stationary environment for the consideration of climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events. 2) An adjustment procedure for homogeneous group formation in the future stationary environment. Under the assumption that extreme rainfall patterns remain stationary within a 30-year period, a procedure is proposed to adjust the optimal homogeneous group formation from the previous temporal periods to reflect conditions in future 30-year periods. 3) A procedure used for rainfall quantile estimation in a future nonstationary environment. Under the assumption that the extreme rainfall series exhibit nonstationary behavior during the whole future period, a one-step forward procedure is constructed based on the unscented Kalman filter to consider the potential non-monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall events at different return periods. In this approach, the homogeneous groups are formed using a trend centered pooling approach. The proposed methodology fills the gaps of considering climate change impacts on homogeneous group formation in both historical and future stationary environments and challenges the assumption of monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall quantiles used in the traditional regional frequency analysis for stations exhibiting nonstationary behavior. The proposed procedures have been extensively tested using large sets of climate data in both historical and future contexts and have been shown to improve the extreme rainfall quantile estimates in both historical and future contexts.

Download or read book Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability written by Assefa Melesse and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. - Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research - Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work - Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology - Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation

Download or read book Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios written by Momcilo Markus and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydroclimatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, affect aspects of our lives and the environment including energy, hydropower, agriculture, transportation, urban life, and human health and safety. Climate studies indicate that the risk of increased flooding and/or more severe droughts will be higher in the future than today, causing increased fatalities, environmental degradation, and economic losses. Using a suite of innovative approaches this book quantifies the changes in projected hydroclimatic extremes and illustrates their impacts in several locations in North America, Asia, and Europe.

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Download or read book The Mediterranean region under climate change written by Collectif and published by IRD Éditions. This book was released on 2018-11-19 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has been published by Allenvi (French National Alliance for Environmental Research) to coincide with the 22nd Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP22) in Marrakesh. It is the outcome of work by academic researchers on both sides of the Mediterranean and provides a remarkable scientific review of the mechanisms of climate change and its impacts on the environment, the economy, health and Mediterranean societies. It will also be valuable in developing responses that draw on “scientific evidence” to address the issues of adaptation, resource conservation, solutions and risk prevention. Reflecting the full complexity of the Mediterranean environment, the book is a major scientific contribution to the climate issue, where various scientific considerations converge to break down the boundaries between disciplines.

Download or read book Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment written by Jana Sillmann and published by . This book was released on 2019-11 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. Provides an overview about past, present and future changes in climate and weather extremes and how to connect that knowledge to impact and risk assessment under global warming Presents different approaches to assess societal-relevant impacts and risk of climate and weather extremes, including compound events, and the complexity of risk cascades and the interconnectedness of societal risk Features applications across a diversity of sectors, including agriculture, health, ecosystem services and urban transport

Download or read book Understanding Hydrological Extremes and their Impact in a Changing Climate Observations Modeling and Attribution written by Xingcai Liu and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Change and Extreme Hydrology written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-11-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate theory dictates that core elements of the climate system, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, and reservoirs of atmospheric and soil moisture, should change as the climate warms, both in their means and extremes. A major challenge that faces the climate and hydrologic science communities is understanding the nature of these ongoing changes in climate and hydrology and the apparent anomalies that exist in reconciling their extreme manifestations. The National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) held a workshop on January 5-6, 2010, that examined how climate warming translates into hydrologic extremes like floods and droughts. The workshop brought together three groups of experts. The first two groups consisted of atmospheric scientists and hydrologists focused on the scientific underpinnings and empirical evidence linking climate variability to hydrologic extremes. The third group consisted of water managers and decision-makers charged with the design and operation of water systems that in the future must be made resilient in light of a changing climate and an environment of hydrologic extremes. Global Change and Extreme Hydrology summarizes the proceedings of this workshop. This report presents an overview of the current state of the science in terms of climate change and extreme hydrologic events. It examines the "conventional wisdom" that climate change will "accelerate" the hydrologic cycle, fuel more evaporation, and generate more precipitation, based on an increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold more water vapor. The report also includes descriptions of the changes in frequency and severity of extremes, the ability (or inability) to model these changes, and the problem of communicating the best science to water resources practitioners in useful forums.

Download or read book Climatic Change Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management written by Martin Beniston and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: year simulations in order to separate noise in the system from the climate change signal. Several contributing papers focused on case studies using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) linked to hydrological models, applied to the analysis of runoff under conditions of convective activity and extreme precipitation, in regions of complex topography, or stakeholder-driven investigations such as water runoff simulations in Quebec undertaken for a major utility. Thorough analyses of GCM results for the Century were reported at the Workshop, in order to illustrate the improvements in model results which have taken place in recent years, and the increasing confidence with which the models can be used for projecting climatic change in coming decades. However, there is still much room for improvement; there is also a need to address more fully the manner in which climate and impacts models (e. g. , hydrological models) can be linked, in terms of consistency and the overlap between different scales, the underlying physical assumptions, and the parameterizations used. Session 2 was devoted to the two extremes of water resources, namely floods and droughts, the focus here being to identify the climate change component in river floods. These have significant economic implications, as was shown by several scientists from Western and Central Europe. Many long time series have been studied worldwide with the aim of detection of nonstationarities, yet there is no conclusive evidence of climate-related changes in flow records, in general.

Download or read book Future Climate Scenarios Regional Climate Modelling and Data Analysis written by Xander Wang and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Over the Continental United States written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An extreme precipitation categorization scheme, developed to temporally and spatially visualize and track the multi-scale variability of extreme precipitation climatology, is introduced over the continental United States and used as the basis for an observational dataset intercomparison. The categorization scheme groups three-day precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm into five precipitation categories, or "P-Cats". To assess observational uncertainty across a range of precipitation measurement approaches, we compare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D), satellite derived data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded station data from the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). While all datasets capture the principal spatial patterns of extreme precipitation climatology, results show considerable variability across the five-platform suite in P-Cat frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude. Higher resolution datasets, PRISM and TRMM, most closely resemble GHCN-D and capture a greater frequency of high-end totals relative to lower resolution products, NARR and MERRA-2. When all datasets are regridded to a common coarser grid, differences persist with datasets originally constructed at a high resolution maintaining the highest frequency and magnitude of P-Cats. Potential future applications of this scheme include tracking change in P-Cats over space and time, climate model evaluation, and assessment of model projected change.

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.