Download or read book Global Sensitivity Analysis written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Download or read book State and Environment written by Andreas Duit and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-06-06 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of environmental governance that show the relevance of the state's role in environmental politics and the analytical power of the comparative approach. Many recent studies on environmental governance focus on either the micro-level (the local and the individual) or the macro-level (the global) while neglecting governance at the nation-state level. State environmental governance is often perceived as inadequate, insufficient, or constrained by considerations of economic growth. And yet the impact of state environmental governance dwarfs that of the market or international organizations. This book of comparative studies documents the continuing relevance of the state in environmental politics and policy. The book also demonstrates the analytical power of the comparative approach to the study of environmental politics and policy, offering cross-national comparisons of environmental governance in both developed and developing countries. Some chapters are based on qualitative studies from a small number of countries; others offer statistical analyses of quantitative data from many more countries over a longer time period. Topics discussed include alternative approaches to estimating comparative environmental performance; citizens' shifting perceptions of their environmental responsibilities; U.S. and German wind policies; fisheries management in several African countries; and forestry conservation in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Peru. The studies illuminate such key issues as the effect of different political systems on the evolution of environmental policy regimes; why some countries seem to perform better than others in environmental matters; and the sociopolitical context of resource management.

Download or read book Composite Indices written by James Eric Foster and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the robustness of rankings obtained from composite indices that combine information from two or more components via a weighted sum. It examines the empirical prevalence of robust comparisons using the method proposed by Foster, McGillivray and Seth (2010). Indices examined are the Human Development Index, the Index of Economic Freedom and the Environmental Performance Index. Key theoretical results demonstrate links between the prevalence of robust comparisons, Kendall's correlation coefficient, and statistical association across components. Implications for redundancy among index components are also examined.

Download or read book The Quality of European Societies written by Eduardo Bericat and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-10 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a compilation of composite indicators created in order to measure important aspects of the quality of European societies. It examines three main questions: do Europeans live in good societies and enjoy good lives; are European societies becoming better as time passes, or is their quality slowly deteriorating; is the quality of life of Europe’s citizens improving over time or is it gradually and irrecoverably getting worse. The volume uses a precise and rigorous system of information to answer these questions and to assess the current situation and monitor the quality of European societies. It describes and discusses fourteen key domains, and per chapter, presents five rankings of EU countries based on composite indicators, which are used as one of the best instruments social science has to synthesize a large amount of information, and they are especially well suited to measure multidimensional social phenomena. The new System of Indices on the Quality of European Societies (SIQES) presented in this volume offers a very broad and rich empirical overview of more than 70 social composite indicators and their nearly 300 dimensions. One of the key findings coming out from the SIQES is that, according to the societal quality of European countries, there exist five different “Europes” inside Europe.

Download or read book Sustainability Assessment written by Alan James Bond and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currently the writing on the subject is limited and comprises, for the most part, guidance documents and completed assessments.

Download or read book Development and Quantification of Sustainability Indicators written by Subramanian Senthilkannan Muthu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-12 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights various methods for quantifying sustainability indicators using different indices. To date, numerous sustainability indicators encompassing either all three pillars (economic, environmental and social) or individual or joint indicators (e.g. environmental and social) have been developed and quantified. In addition to commonly developed indicators, which can be utilized for any industrial sector, sector-specific sustainability indicators are frequently used. Behind each indicator developed, there is a unique scientific model, method or assessment technique. This book explores and elaborates on such indicators, and on associated details such as the concept, development methodology, assessment technique, and applications of each indicator.

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis in Practice written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-07-16 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.

Download or read book The World Bank Research Observer written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Download or read book Sustainability and the U S EPA written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-09-08 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainability is based on a simple and long-recognized factual premise: Everything that humans require for their survival and well-being depends, directly or indirectly, on the natural environment. The environment provides the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the food we eat. Recognizing the importance of sustainability to its work, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been working to create programs and applications in a variety of areas to better incorporate sustainability into decision-making at the agency. To further strengthen the scientific basis for sustainability as it applies to human health and environmental protection, the EPA asked the National Research Council (NRC) to provide a framework for incorporating sustainability into the EPA's principles and decision-making. This framework, Sustainability and the U.S. EPA, provides recommendations for a sustainability approach that both incorporates and goes beyond an approach based on assessing and managing the risks posed by pollutants that has largely shaped environmental policy since the 1980s. Although risk-based methods have led to many successes and remain important tools, the report concludes that they are not adequate to address many of the complex problems that put current and future generations at risk, such as depletion of natural resources, climate change, and loss of biodiversity. Moreover, sophisticated tools are increasingly available to address cross-cutting, complex, and challenging issues that go beyond risk management. The report recommends that EPA formally adopt as its sustainability paradigm the widely used "three pillars" approach, which means considering the environmental, social, and economic impacts of an action or decision. Health should be expressly included in the "social" pillar. EPA should also articulate its vision for sustainability and develop a set of sustainability principles that would underlie all agency policies and programs.

Download or read book Urban Environmental Indicators written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; [Washington, D.C. : sold by OECD Publications Center]. This book was released on 1978 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology written by Hal Caswell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.

Download or read book The Politics of Modelling written by Andrea Saltelli and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-08-25 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 2, 'Pay no attention to the model behind the curtain', Chapter 4, 'Mind the hubris: Complexity can misfire', and Chapter 8, ' Sensitivity auditing: A practical checklist for auditing decision-relevant models' are published open access and free to read or download from Oxford Academic The widespread use of mathematical models for policy-making and its social and political impact are at the core of this book. While the discussion of mathematical modelling generally centres around technical features, use, and type of model, the literature is increasingly acknowledging that the social nature of modelling, its biases and responsibilities, are equally worth investigating. This book tackles these emerging questions by adopting a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how current modelling practices address contemporary challenges, and fills a gap in the field, which has historically focused on statistical and algorithmic modes of producing numbers. Thanks to its multidisciplinary appeal, this book will be essential reading for modellers, public officials, policymakers, and scholars alike.

Download or read book Climate Impacts on Energy Systems written by Jane O. Ebinger and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."

Download or read book Sustainability as a Multi criteria Concept written by Luis Diaz-Balteiro and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-11-23 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainability is a fairly old concept, born in the 18th century in the field of forestry, within a mono-functionality perspective. The concept has considerably evolved in the last few years towards a multi-functionality context, with applications reported in practically all areas of economic interest. On the other hand, modern sustainability is a complex problem, for two reasons: a) The multiplicity of functions of a very different nature involved in the process and b) The manner in which different segments of the society or stakeholders perceive the relative importance of these functions. For the above reasons, a realistic approach for dealing with the sustainability issue requires taking into consideration multiple criteria of different nature (economic, environmental and social), and in many cases within a participatory decision making framework. This book presents a collection of papers, dealing with different theoretical and applied issues of sustainability, with the help of a modern multi-criteria decision-making theory, with a single as well as several stakeholders involved in the decision-making process. Hopefully, this material will encourage academics and practitioners to alter their research in this hot and vital topic. After all, the sustainable management of the environment and its embedded resources is one of the most important, if not the major challenge of the 21st century.

Download or read book Building Performance Analysis written by Pieter de Wilde and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores and brings together the existent body of knowledge on building performance analysis Shortlisted in the CIBSE 2020 Building Performance Awards Building performance is an important yet surprisingly complex concept. This book presents a comprehensive and systematic overview of the subject. It provides a working definition of building performance, and an in-depth discussion of the role building performance plays throughout the building life cycle. The book also explores the perspectives of various stakeholders, the functions of buildings, performance requirements, performance quantification (both predicted and measured), criteria for success, and the challenges of using performance analysis in practice. Building Performance Analysis starts by introducing the subject of building performance: its key terms, definitions, history, and challenges. It then develops a theoretical foundation for the subject, explores the complexity of performance assessment, and the way that performance analysis impacts on actual buildings. In doing so, it attempts to answer the following questions: What is building performance? How can building performance be measured and analyzed? How does the analysis of building performance guide the improvement of buildings? And what can the building domain learn from the way performance is handled in other disciplines? Assembles the current body of knowledge on building performance analysis in one unique resource Offers deep insights into the complexity of using building performance analysis throughout the entire building life cycle, including design, operation and management Contributes an emergent theory of building performance and its analysis Building Performance Analysis will appeal to the building science community, both from industry and academia. It specifically targets advanced students in architectural engineering, building services design, building performance simulation and similar fields who hold an interest in ensuring that buildings meet the needs of their stakeholders.

Download or read book Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification written by Roger Ghanem and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.