Download or read book Deterrence Under Uncertainty written by Edward Geist and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-08-31 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades? Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.
Download or read book Assessing the Uncertainty of Nuclear Deterrence written by Robert M. Steward and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Nuclear deterrence theory in its many forms arose as a theoretical architecture with the goal of preventing rather than winning a nuclear war. Although evidence exists that nuclear weapons do deter full out war between nuclear armed rivals, the extent of this deterrent capability is much less clear. This paper analyzes the uncertainty of nuclear deterrence from the standpoint of both classic theoretical arguments and more recent empirical attempts. From both qualitative and quantitative perspectives, this paper finds cause to question the certainty that nuclear deterrence will inevitably hold in the future. Although nuclear war between nuclear rivals has never occurred, this lack of data is largely what makes predicting the continued success of nuclear deterrence in the future so difficult. In fact, from a certain probabilistic point of view, historical empirical evidence is not inconsistent from nuclear war between nuclear rivals being an event that occurs on average once every 100 years. Finally, this paper offers an alternative vantage point to view nuclear deterrence as a risk model rather than strictly as analyzing the probability of a nuclear war event. From this model point of view, risk of nuclear war may be reduced with higher certainty by measures which limit the impact of a nuclear strike rather than relying on inherently uncertain calculations about a rival's intentions"--Abstract.
Download or read book Post Cold War Conflict Deterrence written by Naval Studies Board and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-04-16 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centers--the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.
Download or read book Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-30 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world of increasing dependence on information technology, the prevention of cyberattacks on a nation's important computer and communications systems and networks is a problem that looms large. Given the demonstrated limitations of passive cybersecurity defense measures, it is natural to consider the possibility that deterrence might play a useful role in preventing cyberattacks against the United States and its vital interests. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Research Council undertook a two-phase project aimed to foster a broad, multidisciplinary examination of strategies for deterring cyberattacks on the United States and of the possible utility of these strategies for the U.S. government. The first phase produced a letter report providing basic information needed to understand the nature of the problem and to articulate important questions that can drive research regarding ways of more effectively preventing, discouraging, and inhibiting hostile activity against important U.S. information systems and networks. The second phase of the project entailed selecting appropriate experts to write papers on questions raised in the letter report. A number of experts, identified by the committee, were commissioned to write these papers under contract with the National Academy of Sciences. Commissioned papers were discussed at a public workshop held June 10-11, 2010, in Washington, D.C., and authors revised their papers after the workshop. Although the authors were selected and the papers reviewed and discussed by the committee, the individually authored papers do not reflect consensus views of the committee, and the reader should view these papers as offering points of departure that can stimulate further work on the topics discussed. The papers presented in this volume are published essentially as received from the authors, with some proofreading corrections made as limited time allowed.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Deterrence written by Gary Charness and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We conduct laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of deterrence mechanisms under controlled conditions. The effect of the expected cost of punishment of an individual's decision to engage in a proscribed activity and the effect of uncertainty on an individual's decision to commit a violation are very difficult to observe in field data. We use a roadway speeding framing and find that (a) individuals respond considerably to increases in the expected cost of speeding, (b) uncertainty about the enforcement regime yields a large reduction in violations committed, and (c) people are much more likely to speed when the punishment regime for which they voted is implemented. Our results have important implications for a behavioral theory of deterrence under uncertainty.
Download or read book Nuclear Deterrence Theory written by Robert Powell and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-03-30 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applying advances in game theory to the study of nuclear deterrence, Robert Powell examines the foundations of deterrence theory. Game-theoretic analysis allows the author to explore some of the most complex and problematic issues in deterrence theory, including the effects of first-strike advantages, limited retaliation, and the number of nuclear powers in the international system on the dynamics of escalation.
Download or read book Tailored Deterrence written by Barry R. Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.
Download or read book Conventional Deterrence written by Richard K. Betts and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Compliance written by Benjamin van Rooij and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-05-20 with total page 1559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Compliance has become key to our contemporary markets, societies, and modes of governance across a variety of public and private domains. While this has stimulated a rich body of empirical and practical expertise on compliance, thus far, there has been no comprehensive understanding of what compliance is or how it influences various fields and sectors. The academic knowledge of compliance has remained siloed along different disciplinary domains, regulatory and legal spheres, and mechanisms and interventions. This handbook bridges these divides to provide the first one-stop overview of what compliance is, how we can best study it, and the core mechanisms that shape it. Written by leading experts, chapters offer perspectives from across law, regulatory studies, management science, criminology, economics, sociology, and psychology. This volume is the definitive and comprehensive account of compliance.
Download or read book Perfect Deterrence written by Frank C. Zagare and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-09-21 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first general analysis of deterrence since the Cold War, using game theory and containing numerous historical examples.
Download or read book Conventional Deterrence written by John J. Mearsheimer and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 1985-08-21 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional Deterrence is a book about the origins of war. Why do nations faced with the prospect of large-scale conventional war opt for or against an offensive strategy? John J. Mearsheimer examines a number of crises that led to major conventional wars to explain why deterrence failed. He focuses first on Allied and German decision making in the years 1939–1940, analyzing why the Allies did not strike first against Germany after declaring war and, conversely, why the Germans did attack the West. Turning to the Middle East, he examines the differences in Israeli and Egyptian strategic doctrines prior to the start of the major conventional conflicts in that region. Mearsheimer then critically assays the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact to determine the prospects for conventional deterrence in any future crisis. He is also concerned with examining such relatively technical issues as the impact of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on conventional deterrence and the debate over maneuver versus attrition warfare.Mearsheimer pays considerable attention to questions of military strategy and tactics. Challenging the claim that conventional detrrence is largely a function of the numerical balance of forces, he also takes issue with the school of thought that ascribes deterrence failures to the dominance of "offensive" weaponry. In addition to examining the military consideration underlying deterrence, he also analyzes the interaction between those military factors and the broader political considerations that move a nation to war.
Download or read book The Dynamics of Deterrence written by Frank C. Zagare and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The value of a theory of deterrence lies in its ability to reconstruct and predict strategic behavior accurately and consistently. Contemporary scholarship on deterrence has drawn upon decision models and classical game theory, with some success, to explain how deterrence works. But the field is marked by unconnected and sometimes contradictory hypotheses that may explain one type of situation while being inapplicable to another. The Dynamics of Deterrence is the first comprehensive treatment of deterrence theory since the mid-1960s. Frank C. Zagare introduces a new theoretical framework for deterrence that is rigorous, consistent, and illuminating. By placing the deterrence relationship in a "theory of moves" framework, Zagare is able to remedy the defects of other models. His approach is illustrated by and applied to a number of complex deterrence situations: the Berlin crisis of 1948, the Middle East crises of 1967 and 1973, and The Falkland/Malvinas crisis of 1980. He also examines the strategic relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1945 to the present. Zagare studies the dynamics of both mutual and unilateral deterrence games in nuclear and non-nuclear situations, and the impact of credibility, capability, and power asymmetries on deterrence stability. He shows that his theory is applicable for analyzing deterrence situations between allies as well as between hostile states. One of the additional strengths of his model, however, is its general usefulness for other levels and settings, such as deterrence games played by husband and wife, parent and child, employer and employee, and the state and its citizens. With its lucid prose and illustrative examples, The Dynamics of Deterrence will be of interest to a wide audience in international relations, peace studies, and political science.
Download or read book Deterrence written by Patrick M. Morgan and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Thinking about Deterrence written by Air Univeristy Press and published by Military Bookshop. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With many scholars and analysts questioning the relevance of deterrence as a valid strategic concept, this volume moves beyond Cold War nuclear deterrence to show the many ways in which deterrence is applicable to contemporary security. It examines the possibility of applying deterrence theory and practice to space, to cyberspace, and against non-state actors. It also examines the role of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century and reaches surprising conclusions.
Download or read book Increasing Uncertainty the Dangers of Relying on Conventional Forces for Nuclear Deterrence Critique of the Nuclear Posture Review Global Zero Risk of Conventional Prompt Global Strike Missiles written by U. S. Military and published by . This book was released on 2017-03-23 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his now-famous Prague speech in 2009 shortly after taking office, President Obama laid out his vision for a world without nuclear weapons. Although he had no timeline for reaching this goal, noting that it might not even occur in his lifetime, part of the pathway to that objective involved reducing the role of nuclear weapons in US national security strategy. The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released one year later, further defined and codified his vision for the security of the United States and its allies. Five years later, some of the implications of how this decision affects the US deterrent relationship with both Russia and China are becoming apparent.Arguably, these two are the United States' most important relationships and should serve as the cornerstone of US nuclear deterrence policy. Although Russia and China are not identified as adversaries of the United States, neither are they considered allies. Potential always exists for the relationship to sour, and in the case of Russia, that is exactly what has happened over the past year. The US decision to meet the needs of deterrence by relying less on nuclear weapons and instead developing conventional weapons that can have strategic effects may not have had the intended deterrent effect on Russia and China. Far from encouraging them to reduce the importance of nuclear weapons in their national security strategy, it may have inspired them to rely more on nuclear weapons to meet their security needs. Doing so could create dangerous instability in deterrence relationships.According to the Global Zero US Nuclear Policy Commission, the increased lethality and precision of advanced conventional weapons allow the United States to hold at risk enemy targets that, at one time, were susceptible only to nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the commission observed that these weapons would have a greater deterrent effect because they were more "usable" than nuclear weapons. Moreover, the commission's research showed that a significant number of targets in Russia and China, once vulnerable only to US nuclear weapons, would be threatened by precision conventional forces. Additionally, as US capabilities and investments improve, more targets would become vulnerable to conventional capabilities, enabling the administration to reduce the role of nuclear weapons even further.
Download or read book Uncertainty Entry Deterrence and Excess Capacity written by Sougata Poddar and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
