Download or read book An Introduction to Error Analysis written by John Robert Taylor and published by Univ Science Books. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Problems after each chapter

Download or read book Proustian Uncertainties written by Saul Friedländer and published by Other Press, LLC. This book was released on 2020-12-01 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Named a Times Literary Supplement Best Book of the Year A Pulitzer Prize–winning historian revisits Marcel Proust’s masterpiece in this essay on literature and memory, exploring the question of identity—that of the novel’s narrator and Proust’s own. This engaging reexamination of In Search of Lost Time considers how the narrator defines himself, how this compares to what we know of Proust himself, and what the significance is of these various points of commonality and divergence. We know, for example, that the author did not hide his homosexuality, but the narrator did. Why the difference? We know that the narrator tried to marginalize his part-Jewish background. Does this reflect the author’s position, and how does the narrator handle what he tries, but does not manage, to dismiss? These are major questions raised by the text and reflected in the text, to which the author’s life doesn’t give obvious answers. The narrator’s reflections on time, on death, on memory, and on love are as many paths leading to the image of self that he projects. In Proustian Uncertainties, Saul Friedländer draws on his personal experience from a life spent investigating the ties between history and memory to offer a fresh perspective on the seminal work.

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Download or read book Measurements and their Uncertainties written by Ifan Hughes and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-07-02 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This hands-on guide is primarily intended to be used in undergraduate laboratories in the physical sciences and engineering. It assumes no prior knowledge of statistics. It introduces the necessary concepts where needed, with key points illustrated with worked examples and graphic illustrations. In contrast to traditional mathematical treatments it uses a combination of spreadsheet and calculus-based approaches, suitable as a quick and easy on-the-spot reference. The emphasis throughout is on practical strategies to be adopted in the laboratory. Error analysis is introduced at a level accessible to school leavers, and carried through to research level. Error calculation and propagation is presented though a series of rules-of-thumb, look-up tables and approaches amenable to computer analysis. The general approach uses the chi-square statistic extensively. Particular attention is given to hypothesis testing and extraction of parameters and their uncertainties by fitting mathematical models to experimental data. Routines implemented by most contemporary data analysis packages are analysed and explained. The book finishes with a discussion of advanced fitting strategies and an introduction to Bayesian analysis.

Download or read book Measurement Uncertainties written by S. V. Gupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-13 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book fulfills the global need to evaluate measurement results along with the associated uncertainty. In the book, together with the details of uncertainty calculations for many physical parameters, probability distributions and their properties are discussed. Definitions of various terms are given and will help the practicing metrologists to grasp the subject. The book helps to establish international standards for the evaluation of the quality of raw data obtained from various laboratories for interpreting the results of various national metrology institutes in an international inter-comparisons. For the routine calibration of instruments, a new idea for the use of pooled variance is introduced. The uncertainty calculations are explained for (i) independent linear inputs, (ii) non-linear inputs and (iii) correlated inputs. The merits and limitations of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) are discussed. Monte Carlo methods for the derivation of the output distribution from the input distributions are introduced. The Bayesian alternative for calculation of expanded uncertainty is included. A large number of numerical examples is included.

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Download or read book Uncertainties in Modern Power Systems written by Ahmed F. Zobaa and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2020-10-26 with total page 718 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in Modern Power Systems combines several aspects of uncertainty management in power systems at the planning and operation stages within an integrated framework. This book provides the state-of-the-art in electric network planning, including time-scales, reliability, quality, optimal allocation of compensators and distributed generators, mathematical formulation, and search algorithms. The book introduces innovative research outcomes, programs, algorithms, and approaches that consolidate the present status and future opportunities and challenges of power systems. The book also offers a comprehensive description of the overall process in terms of understanding, creating, data gathering, and managing complex electrical engineering applications with uncertainties. This reference is useful for researchers, engineers, and operators in power distribution systems. Includes innovative research outcomes, programs, algorithms, and approaches that consolidate current status and future of modern power systems Discusses how uncertainties will impact on the performance of power systems Offers solutions to significant challenges in power systems planning to achieve the best operational performance of the different electric power sectors

Download or read book Measurement Errors and Uncertainties written by Semyon G. Rabinovich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-12-26 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical reference on theory and methods of estimating measurement errors and uncertainty for both scientists and engineers in industry and experimental research. Building on the fundamentals of measurement theory, this book offers a wealth of practial recommendations and procedures. It differs from the majority of books in that it balances coverage of probabilistic methods with detailed information on the characterization, calibration, standardization and limitations of measuring instruments, with specific examples from both electrical and mechanical systems. In addition to a general updating to reflect current research, new material in this edition includes increased coverage of indirect measurements, with a new, simpler, more efficient method for this class of measurements.

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Download or read book Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Inventories written by Jean P. Ometto and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-23 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based on the 2014 Special Issue 124(3) of Climatic Change. It brings together 16 key papers presented at, or produced, subsequent to the 2010 (3rd) International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. The Workshop was jointly organized by the Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine; the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences; and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria. This book has been written to enhance understanding of the uncertainty encountered in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in dealing with the challenges resulting from those estimates. Such challenges include, but are not limited to i) monitoring emissions; ii) adhering to emission commitments; iii) securing the proper functioning of emission trading markets; and iv) meeting low-carbon or low-GHG futures in the long term. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed by all authors attempt to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective that seeks to strengthen their usefulness under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches show the challenges and benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analysis and where advances are being made.

Download or read book The Usual Uncertainties written by Jonathan Blum and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Jonathan Blum's highly anticipated first collection--is storytelling at its finest. In precise, elegant prose, these stories follow characters and communities often consigned to the edge of the frame: a community college dropout, a geriatric care manager, a square dance bar mitzvah, a Scrabble club, an entrepreneurial Thai immigrant, and a South Florida country club. With echoes of Leonard Michaels, Mavis Gallant, and Lore Segal, Blum explores the ways our divergent histories tether us together and at times push us completely apart. The Usual Uncertainties: Stories revels in the persistent human struggle to love with abandon and marks a dynamic voice in American short fiction."--Publisher's description.

Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Ian Scoones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-07-14 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why is uncertainty so important to politics today? To explore the underlying reasons, issues and challenges, this book’s chapters address finance and banking, insurance, technology regulation and critical infrastructures, as well as climate change, infectious disease responses, natural disasters, migration, crime and security and spirituality and religion. The book argues that uncertainties must be understood as complex constructions of knowledge, materiality, experience, embodiment and practice. Examining in particular how uncertainties are experienced in contexts of marginalisation and precarity, this book shows how sustainability and development are not just technical issues, but depend deeply on political values and choices. What burgeoning uncertainties require lies less in escalating efforts at control, but more in a new – more collective, mutualistic and convivial – politics of responsibility and care. If hopes of much-needed progressive transformation are to be realised, then currently blinkered understandings of uncertainty need to be met with renewed democratic struggle. Written in an accessible style and illustrated by multiple case studies from across the world, this book will appeal to a wide cross-disciplinary audience in fields ranging from economics to law to science studies to sociology to anthropology and geography, as well as professionals working in risk management, disaster risk reduction, emergencies and wider public policy fields.

Download or read book Mobilizing in Uncertainty written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Different individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors as civil war begins. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Anastasia Shesterinina explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Her fresh approach underscores the uncertain nature of the first days of the war when Georgian forces had a preponderance of manpower and arms. Mobilizing in Uncertainty demonstrates, in contrast to explanations that assume individuals know the risk involved in mobilization and make decisions based on that knowledge, that the Abkhaz anticipated risk in ways that were affected by their earlier experiences and by social networks at the time of mobilization. What Shesterinina uncovers is that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. As appeals traveled across society, people consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded and how people continued to mobilize during and after the war. Through this detailed analysis of Abkhaz mobilization from prewar to postwar, Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Dealing with Uncertainties written by Manfred Drosg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-30 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dealing with Uncertainties is an innovative monograph that lays special emphasis on the deductive approach to uncertainties and on the shape of uncertainty distributions. This perspective has the potential for dealing with the uncertainty of a single data point and with sets of data that have different weights. It is shown that the inductive approach that is commonly used to estimate uncertainties is in fact not suitable for these two cases. The approach that is used to understand the nature of uncertainties is novel in that it is completely decoupled from measurements. Uncertainties which are the consequence of modern science provide a measure of confidence both in scientific data and in information in everyday life. Uncorrelated uncertainties and correlated uncertainties are fully covered and the weakness of using statistical weights in regression analysis is discussed. The text is abundantly illustrated with examples and includes more than 150 problems to help the reader master the subject.

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty in Engineering written by Louis J. M. Aslett and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.