Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the North Indian Ocean WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 kt and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the topical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The present model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere WINDPSH written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a tropical cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of earlier strike and wind probability models, is tested on independent data. Test results show good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book A Verification of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Jaclyn Ashley Shafer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability Forecasting WINDPA written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability (WINDPA) program is documented. WINDPA provides the probability of selected Navy and Air Force bases either being struck by an Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone or receiving winds of at least 30 or 50 kt. The basis for WINDPA estimates is discussed in comparison to a similar western Pacific program (WINDP). WINDPA estimates were subjected to independent reliability testing, the results of which are discussed.
Download or read book Statistical Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Denis Nikolayevich Botambekov and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Technical Abstract Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions Setting Aids written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A procedure to set tropical cyclone readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. Where possible, threshold values for 90% and/or 95% confidence are given for 50 kt tropical cyclone and typhoon (hurricane) readiness conditions. The method used a large of computer-simulated forecasts for actual typhoons (hurricanes) that passed near Yokosuka, Buckner Bay, Apra Harbor, Cubi Point, or Pearl Harbor. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day forecast error characteristics, and were compared to estimates of actural winds. These data were used to establish tropical cyclone condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Keywords: Weather forecasting; Tropical cyclone strike probability; Guam; Japan; CHARM(Cyclone-Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model); Threat probability.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Tropical cyclone intensity and structure changes Theories observations numerical modeling and forecasting written by Eric Hendricks and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Download or read book Terrain Adjusted Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A problem involving overestimates of tropical cyclone wind probabilities for locations that are heavily terrain-influenced is described. Previous studies on this topic are reviewed. A method is described to adjust wind probabilities for terrain, and it is applied for the two Navy ports of Cubi Point, RP, and Yokosuka, JA. Probabilities with and without terrain modifications are tested, and the results are analyzed and compared. The study concludes that the resulting lower wind probabilities are a substantial improvement over the unmodified probabilities. (Author).
Download or read book NAVENVPREDRSCHFAC Contractor Report CR written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating the Probability of Operationally Critical Wind Speeds Affecting an Air Base During the Passage of a Tropical Cyclone written by Herbert S. Appleman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTEA forecast of a tr pical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base requir certain decisions to be made, such as whether t tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, removn. issiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to bal-ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTEA forecast of a tr pical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base requir certain decisions to be made, such as whether t tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, remove missiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to bal-ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTECTED BASE, THE COMMANDER MUST KNOW THE PROBABILITY OF HIS INSTALLATION BEING STRUCK BY ABOVE-CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM. In June 1958, Air Weather Service published a technical report (AD 218 559) which outlined a method for computing the total probability of above-critical wind speeds affecting an airbase at some time during the passage of a hurricane or typhoon. A technique was developed for obtaining the instantaneous probability of strong winds affecting a base at each hour during the storm's passage, and a somewhat different approach was used to obtain the hour-by-hour instantaneous probability. Since an estimate of both the total and hourly probabthe en ire problem. (Author).
Download or read book Evaluating Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Error Distributions for Use in Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Distribution written by Jay M. Neese and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates whether the National Hurricane Center (NHC) operational product for producing probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) wind distributions could be further improved by examining the distributions of track errors it draws upon to calculate probabilities. The track spread/skill relationship for several global ensemble prediction system forecasts is examined as a condition for a description of a full probability distribution function. The 2007, 2008, and 2009 NHC official track forecasts are compared to the ensemble prediction system model along-, cross-, and forecast-track errors. Significant differences in statistical properties were then identified among the groups to determine whether conditioning based on geographic location was warranted. Examination of each regional distribution interval suggests that differences in distributions existed for along-track and cross-track errors. Because errors for ensemble mean and deterministic forecasts typically have larger mean errors and larger variance than official forecast errors, it is unlikely that independent error distributions based on these models would refine the PDFs used in the probabilistic model. However, this should be tested with a sensitivity analysis and verified with the probability swath. Overall, conditional formatting suggests that the NHC probability product may be improved if the Monte Carlo (MC) model would draw from refined distributions of track errors based on TC location.
