Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the North Indian Ocean WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 kt and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the topical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The present model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean written by M. Mohapatra and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-24 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with understanding, monitoring and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). There is special emphasis on TC genesis, intensification, movement and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall and gale winds. It highlights the current state of research on TCs over the NIO and recent improvements in early warning systems due to advances in observational, analytical and numerical weather prediction techniques. The chapters in the book are authored by leading experts from research and operational environments.The chapters presented in the book intend to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs, especially over the NIO region. They provide high quality reference material for all experts working in the field of TC related disaster management. This book is relevant to TC forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students.
Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-19 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones and Their Forecasting Systems in the North Indian Ocean written by G. S. Mandal and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book South Indian Tropical Cyclone Vector Mean Charts written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents resultant directions and distances for tropical cyclone movements in the South Indian Ocean. Charts present the movements for separate five-degree latitude-longitude areas, for five seasons and for six time intervals. In addition, the charts provide sufficient information to allow the user to construct 0.90 probability ellipses. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South West Indian Ocean written by World Meteorological Organization. Tropical Cyclone Programme and published by World Meteorological Organization. This book was released on 1990 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Download or read book A Verification of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Jaclyn Ashley Shafer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Meteorological and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones written by Rachael A. Spollen and published by . This book was released on 2002-09-01 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These tropical cyclone Meteorology and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for the North Indian Ocean (NI0) complete the global coverage required for application of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting introduced by Carr and Elsberry (1994). The database for the NIO Meteorological Knowledge Base includes 64 storms during 1991-2001, All of the 656 cases could be classified in three common synoptic patterns that have been found to apply in other basins, with no unique patterns. About 75% of the cases are in the standard pattern. This preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base includes only eight tropical cyclones during 2000-2001, The model forecast track errors are relatively small, and only 33%, 62%, and 70% of the Navy global, regional, and UK Meteorological Office models, respectively, exceed 150 n mi at 72 h. Only 12 cases of large (>225 n mi at 72 h) track forecast errors occur. Half of these large-error cases are associated with erroneous model predictions in the midlatitudes. One third of the large errors originate from improper model treatments of the tropical circulations, and the remaining two cases originate from erroneous initial cyclone positions. Since these are the same error sources as in other basins, the Systematic Approach has global application.
Download or read book Statistical Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Denis Nikolayevich Botambekov and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability Forecasting WINDPA written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability (WINDPA) program is documented. WINDPA provides the probability of selected Navy and Air Force bases either being struck by an Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone or receiving winds of at least 30 or 50 kt. The basis for WINDPA estimates is discussed in comparison to a similar western Pacific program (WINDP). WINDPA estimates were subjected to independent reliability testing, the results of which are discussed.
Download or read book A Compilation of Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data written by Gail M. Brown and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
