Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting in the Australian Region written by Jenelle I. Templeton and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A system to infer the probability of a tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The results of a sequence of tests are presented, which indicate the system reasonably specifies the desired probability. Some envisioned operational applications of tropical cyclone strike probability information are described; some are illustrated. (Author).
Download or read book Southwest Pacific and Australian Area Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Australian Region written by Angelika Werner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The hazard of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a very relevant topic to the Australian economy and to the welfare of its northern population. Australia's climate and the interannual variability of Australian region TC formation (genesis; TCG) is strongly dominated by the ocean-atmosphere interannual climate pattern El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to a lesser extent by other climate modes of variability. This thesis investigates new ways of seasonal forecasting Australian region TCG counts and distribution by identifying potentially skilful climatological predictors and applying more advanced statistical modelling methods than previous models for the region. ENSO is known to be the most important predictor of seasonal variations in TCG for the Australian region. To investigate the ENSO-independent effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian TCG, a simple, but effective method has been developed to separate the IOD from ENSO. Results demonstrate, that there is reasonable individual forecast skill afforded by the influence of the isolated IOD. In combination with common ENSO metrics, however, the IOD does not significantly improve seasonal forecasting of seasonal TCG counts in the Australian region or subregions. A Poisson regression model using Bayesian inference and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was developed to forecast seasonal TCG counts in the Australian region. The final three-predictor model based on derived indices of subtropical Central Pacific June-July-August average convective available potential energy (CAPE), the tropical northeast Pacific May-June-July average meridional winds at 850 hPa (v850) and subtropical central South Pacific June-July-August geopotential height at 500 hPa performs best with the corresponding correlation coefficient between observed annual TCG totals and cross-validated model hindcasts of r = 0.73 over the 40-year record between 1968/89-2007/08. The model is adaptable for hindcasting seasonal TCG totals in Australia's Eastern (Coral Sea) TC subregion, while it lacks skill in the Western (eastern Indian Ocean) TC subregion (r = 0.79 and r = 0.38 respectively). To improve forecasts of annual TCG counts in the Western region (90°-135°E), a separate model was developed with correlations between cross-validated hindcasts and observed annual TCG count of r = 0.67 using the June-July-August tropical Central Pacific sea level pressure (SLP) and the above used index of v850 as predictors. A logistic regression approach applied in the Bayesian seasonal forecast model was found to be successful in forecasting spatial probabilities of Australian region TCG on a 2.5° x 2.5° grid for the upcoming season. The most skilful model is based on the SLP, NINO4 and v850 indices, combined with spatial information from CAPE and shows an average improvement over the climatological average of 25%. The average distribution of TCG probabilities over the study period, as well as the hindcasted strong variations of probabilities and distribution of TCG during ENSO events match remarkably well against observations over most of the study domain. Results demonstrate that the combination of dynamic with synoptic and/or thermodynamic features is most useful to identify climatic influences on the seasonal frequency and spatial distribution of TC development in the Australian region. Independent forecasts using the three introduced models and comparisons with current operational models demonstrate the relatively high skill of the models presented in this thesis.
Download or read book Southwest Pacific and Australian Area Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities Volume I 24 Hour Movement Volume II 48 Hour Movement Volume III 72 Hour Movement written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilities relating to the future movement of Southwest Pacific and Australian area tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positions of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons: December - January, February, March, April and May-November. Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probabilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 72 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book The Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Program EPSTRKP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A system to infer the probability of an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The probabilities are based on analysis of tropical cyclone forecast errors in the eastern North Pacific. (Author).
Download or read book Australian Meteorological Magazine written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Sea state Probability Model Development and Application written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS (Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System). The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.
Download or read book Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities Volume II 48 Hour Movement written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilities relating to the future movement of North Pacific tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positons of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons (June-July, August, September, October, November-May). For the Western North Pacific, the period from NOvember-May was sub-divided into three additional seasons (November, December-January, February-May). Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 48 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract).
Download or read book North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities Volume III 72 Hour Movement written by Harold L. Crutcher and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilities relating to the future movement of North Pacific tropical cyclones are presented. The probabilities are based on observational data of successive 12-hour positions of the centers of these storms. The data are stratified into five seasons (June-July, August, September, October, November-May). For the Western North Pacific, the period from November-May was sub-divided into three additional seasons (November, December-January, February-May). Geographical areas are defined by five-degree latitude-longitude squares. The probabilities are computed assuming the initial storm position or 'origin' is always at the center of the square and the target areas are always circular areas with radii of one, two and three degrees latitude which are also located at the center of the squares. These probabilities indicate the chance of the storm center being within the target areas at the end of specified time intervals. Two sets of probabilities are presented for each square: one set for the case when the origin is at the center of the master square, and a second set for the case where the target areas are centered on this square. Values for time intervals of 72 hours are presented. (Modified author abstract).
Download or read book Book Catalog of the Library and Information Services Division Shelf List catalog written by Environmental Science Information Center. Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 920 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Book catalog of the Library and Information Services Division written by Environmental Science Information Center. Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
