Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Sea state Probability Model Development and Application written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conditions of sea state around severe storms, especially tropical cyclones, are of major concern to ships. An encounter with a tropical cyclone has the potential for causing structural damage and perhaps even personnel casualties, thus accurate assessment of significant and possibly hazardous sea-state events is highly important. Two models that predict sea state based on operationally available input are examined and compared in this report. While it is concluded that both models provide reasonable forecasts of sea height, a preference for one model over the other is shown. This preferred model is coupled with elements of tropical cyclone wind and strike probability models to create sea state probabilities. These sea state probabilities, when tested on independent data, are found to be in good agreement with observational data. The preferred model developed in the first section of the report then is applied in subsequent sections to form a tropical cyclone threat anlaysis and display aid called TCASS (Tropical Cyclone Applications Software System). The TCASS is designed primarily for shipboard applications and may be used by environmentalists as a briefing aid, for analysis of tropical cyclone threat, and as a tool for formulating a recommended course of action.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Simulations Of Tropical Cyclone In Regional Climate Models written by Zhong Zhong and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-02-01 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
Download or read book Surface Gravity Wave Modeling in Tropical Cyclones written by Yalin Fan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are among the deadliest geophysical phenomena on earth. Tropical cyclone-generated wave fields are of interest both scientifically for understanding wind,Äìwave-ocean interaction physics and operationally for predicting potentially hazardous conditions for ship navigation and coastal regions. This chapter briefly reviews the development of third generation wave models, the improvements of their input/dissipation source functions, and their applications in tropical cyclone generated surface wave predictions. Discussion on the status of coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling in tropical cyclone predictions are given at the end of the chapter prompted by the growing scientific evidence on the importance of sea state on air-sea fluxes under extreme wind conditions.
Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).
Download or read book Coastal Extension of CMEMS Products Models Data and Applications written by Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-05-06 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Science the Departments of State Justice and Commerce and Related Agencies Appropriations for 2007 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Science, State, Justice, and Commerce, and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 2148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics Prediction and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.
Download or read book Ships and Offshore Structures XIX written by Carlos Guedes Soares and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 976 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This three-volume work presents the proceedings from the 19th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress held in Cascais, Portugal on 7th to 10th September 2015. The International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC) is a forum for the exchange of information by experts undertaking and applying marine structural research.The aim of
Download or read book Government Reports Annual Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering written by Michael Faber and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-07-15 with total page 938 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the pressure of harsh environmental conditions and natural hazards, large parts of the world population are struggling to maintain their livelihoods. Population growth, increasing land utilization and shrinking natural resources have led to an increasing demand of improved efficiency of existing technologies and the development of new ones. A
Download or read book The United States Department of Commerce Publications Catalog and Index Supplement written by United States. Dept. of Commerce and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 964 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Government Reports Announcements Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
