Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Formation in Environments with Cool SST and High Wind Shear Over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean 1975 2005 written by Rachel Grant Mauk and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This work analyzes the environment conditions in which tropical cyclones have formed during the months of October, November, and December in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. The study period begins in 1975, the year of publication for the Hebert-Poteat and Dvorak techniques for satellite classification of tropical and subtropical systems, respectively. The northeastern Atlantic Ocean is defined as the portion of the Atlantic basin north of 20°N and east of 60°W. Purely subtropical storms were excluded from the study to focus on the conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis was defined as the time in the official HURDAT record when the cyclone 1) had been classified as tropical, and 2) had maximum sustained winds of at least tropical storm force (greater than or equal to 34 kt). NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data were used for atmospheric variables, and Reynolds SST and NOAA ERSST data were used for sea surface temperatures. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters were analyzed to determine the environmental conditions during the period prior to genesis. Wind shear (magnitude and spatial orientation), vertical temperature profiles and stability indices were computed on 6-h intervals for the thirty hours prior to genesis. Synoptic geopotential height patterns were analyzed on 12-h intervals for the thirty-six hours prior to genesis.
Download or read book Late Season Tropical Cyclone Formation Over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean written by Rachel Grant Mauk and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the past thirty years, twenty named tropical cyclones formed in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean during the months of October, November, and December. By the accepted definition of a favorable environment for tropical cyclogenesis, most of them should not have developed. The past seven seasons produced ten of the twenty, with 2001 and 2005 spawning three and four systems, respectively. The study period begins in 1975, the year in which the Hebert-Poteat technique for satellite identification of subtropical systems was published. The northeastern Atlantic is defined as the portion of the Atlantic north of 20°N and east of 60°W. Purely subtropical storms are excluded from the study to focus on the conditions for tropical transformation. The climatology of the twenty late-season tropical cyclones (LSTCs) is discussed including the peak development periods, location, maximum strength, and type of non-tropical origin. LSTCs in this region arise from four unique origins, providing a method for classification. Type I storms originate as pre-existing, non-frontal and non-tropical cyclones. Type II systems develop along dissipating frontal systems. Type III LSTCs develop directly from an occluded frontal cyclone, while Type IV developments begin with tropical origins. Thirteen of the twenty systems are Types I and II, and the remaining systems are split relatively evenly between Types III and IV. The environment of each LSTC is examined over the 24 hours prior to attainment of tropical storm status. Wind fields and temperature profiles are calculated on a 13x13 point Lagrangian grid. Wind shear is calculated for the 850-200 hPa, 850-300 hPa, and 850-500 hPa layers. The shear values are averaged on 3x3 point and 1x1 point grids for quantitative comparison of systems. Each system's synoptic environment is visualized on a 41x21 point Eulerian grid centered on (30°N, 50°W) over the 36 hours before genesis; of particular interest are the locations of upper-level troughs, ridges, and upper-level cold lows. With these data the conditions conducive to the formation of LSTCs are analyzed.
Download or read book Analysis and Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work begins with the development of a statistical prediction model of numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes per year in several regions of the Atlantic: the entire Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as landfalling storms along the US Gulf of Mexico, Southeast and Northeast coasts. The methodology involves of cross-correlating variables against Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the Hurricane Track Density Function (HTDF) to select predictors. The model performs well in the basin-wide predictions over the entire Atlantic and Caribbean, with the predictions showing an improvement over climatology and random chance at a 95% confidence level. Over the Gulf of Mexico, only named storms showed that level of predictability. Predicting landfalls proves more difficult, and only the prediction of named storms along the US Southeastern and Gulf Coasts shows an improvement over random chance at the 95% confidence level. Tropical cyclone activity along the U.S. Northeastern Coast is found to be unpredictable in this model; with the rarity of events, the model is unstable. In order to provide some physical basis for many of the connections found statistically, the second section is a case study of the 2004-07 Atlantic hurricane seasons. It is found that 2005 had the most favorable SST and vertical wind shear conditions over the main development region. 2004 and 2006 had intermediate levels of SST and wind shear and, outside of the month of August, similar levels of activity. Activity in 2007 was generally suppressed: although more tropical storms formed than in 2006, they were very short-lived. On average, tropical storms in 2007 survived less than 2.5 days. The strength of the subtropical anticyclone is a very important factor: in 2005, a weak subtropical high allowed for unusually high SST in the main development region, while in 2007 a strong subtropical high over the east Atlantic cooled SST and increased vertical wind.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Origin Movement and Intensity Characteristics Based on Data Compositing Techniques written by W. M. Gray and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-date results of recent tropical cyclone research at Colorado State University are presented. Particular attention is paid to new findings which impact on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting efforts. Observational studies using large amounts of composited rawinsonde, satellite, and aircraft flight data have been performed to analyze global aspects of tropical cyclone occurrences, physical processes of tropical cyclone genesis, tropical cyclone intensity change, environmental factors influencing tropical cyclone turning motion 24-36 hours before the turn takes place, tropical cyclone intensity determination from upper tropospheric reconnaissance, and the diurnal variations of vertical motion in tropical weather systems. (Author).
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones written by Richard Anthes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics Prediction and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean written by George W. Cry and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones written by Isaac Monroe Cline and published by . This book was released on 1926 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes written by Mikhail Abdul-Rahim Alaka and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1851 2006 written by Colin McAdie and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Experiment in Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change written by Robert T. Merrill and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Causes of Tropical Cyclone Motion and Propagation written by Carl Alan McElroy and published by . This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The physics of tropical cyclone (TC) motion and propagation are examined using both climatological and composite rawinsonde data. Propagation is defined as TC motion relative to its surrounding steering flow. Tropical cyclones are observed to move 1-2 ms to the minus first power faster and usually 10-20 deg to the left of the surrounding deep layer steering current(850- 300mb deep layer flow averaged through a 5-7 deg radial band). Tropical cyclones move in response to a deep tropospheric current which advects them after they form. The primary factor causing TCs to propagate faster than their steering flow is their formation and continued residence within a baroclinic environment. This baroclinic environment is evidenced by positive and negative tropospheric wind shears on opposite sides of the storm track. The presence of this wind shear on each side of the storm track causes a deep layer wind profile with the weakest flow away from the storm center. Hence, the TC center is embedded in the strongest tropospheric mean flow. The deep layer parallel wind flow to each side of the TC in the (MOT) frame of reference must, as a consequence of the temperature gradient induced wind shears, be weaker than the deep layer flow over the TC center. Tropical cyclones are situated in the warmest part of the environment with a cooler deep layer current to both right and left sides. These deep layer flow properties are applicable to the vicinity of the TC regardless of latitude or direction of motion. Most TCs propagate to the left of their steering flow because they move from a relatively warm environment to a relatively cool environment. Westward moving TCs in the Atlantic are the exception. These are a special class of TCs which move from a relatively cool to a relatively warm environment. In this case, rear (cold) to front (warm) relative environmil>h--i-(i1>Æ>H16HD2H9,H((H)"
Download or read book Atlantic Tropical and Subtropical Cyclone Classifications for 1976 written by Donald C. Gaby and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Im Expl Tropical Cyclones written by Hall-Wallace and published by Thomson. This book was released on 2002-05 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Using the Navy Global Model written by Caroline A. Bower and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tracking Program is used to identify vortices in the western North Pacific from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecasts during May - October 2002 and 2003. Based on the NOGAPS analyses, several parameters are different between the 23 vortices that developed into storms% during 2002 according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the 231 vortices that did not develop. After eliminating 127 vortices that did not persist at least 24 h, this left 104 non developing cases. For the developing circulations, the average 850- mb relative vorticity value at the first JTWC-warning time was 5.0 x 10(-5) s(-1), with an easterly deep layer wind shear of-1.8 m s(-1).
