Download or read book Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe written by Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-02 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009–12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greece’s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany’s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each other’s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.
Download or read book Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe written by Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-02 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009–12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greece’s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany’s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each other’s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.
Download or read book Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A financial stress index for the United States is introduced -an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly parameterized Markov-switching VAR model, estimated using Bayesian methods. A "stress event" is defined as a period where the latent Markov states for both shock variances and model coefficients are adverse. Results show that allowing for time variation is economically and statistically important, with solid (quasi) real-time properties. Stress events line up well with financial events in history. A shift to a stress event is highly detrimental to the outlook for the real economy, and conventional monetary policy is relatively weak during such periods.
Download or read book International Transmission of Financial Stress written by Jonas Dovern and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The European Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Phoebus Athanassiou and published by . This book was released on 2021-08 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction -- The sovereign-banks Nexus : an economic analysis -- The European sovereign debt crisis as a source of case studies -- An economic analysis of policy options -- Closing the first channel of contagion from banks to sovereigns : Hitherto European actions and their critique -- Closing the second channel of contagion from sovereigns to banks : legal assessment of policy options.
Download or read book Determinants of Financial Stress in Emerging Market Economies written by Cyn-Young Park and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/09 illustrates how financial turmoil in advanced economies triggered severe financial stress in emerging markets. Previous studies showed the conditions and linkages through which financial stress is transmitted from advanced to emerging markets. This paper extends the existing literature on the use of financial stress index (FSI) in understanding this transmission. The computed financial stress index for twenty-five emerging markets captures key episodes of financial stress in emerging economies and appears to follow financial stress in advanced economies. Using panel regression, we find that advanced and emerging market FSI (excluding the country) significantly increases domestic emerging market FSI; global and domestic factors are both significant; and common regional factor appears significant for emerging Asia and emerging Europe, implying the vulnerability of both regions to regional financial contagion. (Results for the vector autoregression with blocked exogeneity to be included).
Download or read book Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises written by Ms.Camelia Minoiu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises. Our results indicate that increases in a country's financial interconnectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals.
Download or read book Economic Crisis in Europe written by Paul van den Noord and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe is a much-anticipated volume which shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives.
Download or read book The Financial Connectedness Between Eurozone Core and Periphery written by Georgios Magkonis and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the financial stress interconnectedness among GIIPS economies and Germany. Based on market level financial stress indices, it examines the stress transmission process as well as the causal network relationships in banking sector, bond, money and stock markets. The period under investigation, 2001-2013, allows to test the effects of financial crisis of 2008 as well as the subsequent European sovereign crisis. Using two alternative techniques for connectedness analysis, our evidence suggests that the peripheral economies of Italy and Spain play a highly significant role in the stress transmission in all markets, especially in the cases of banks and equity markets. Moreover, we visualize our results using network analysis. Contrary to common wisdom, Portugal, Ireland, and mainly Greece, do not seem to have an important role in amplifying stress levels.
Download or read book International Banking and Transmission of the 1931 Financial Crisis written by Olivier Accominotti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In May-July 1931, a series of financial panics shook Central Europe before spreading to the rest of the world. This paper explores how the 1931 Central European crisis propagated to the London and New York financial centers; it also examines the role of cross-border banking linkages in international crisis transmission. Using archival bank-level data, I document US and British banks' asset-side exposure to the crisis region. The Continental crisis disturbed few US banks but endangered several British financial institutions and triggered severe stress in the London money market. Central European credits were mostly held by large and diversified commercial banks in the United States and by small and geographically specialized financial institutions in Britain. Differences in the market structure of the trade finance industry explain why the 1931 Central European crisis infected London banks but not New York banks.
Download or read book The Determinants of Cross border Bank Flows to Emerging Markets written by Sabine Herrmann and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28 emerging market economies in Asia, Latin America and central and eastern Europe from 1993 to 2008. The empirical analysis suggests that global as well as country specific factors are significant determinants of cross-border bank flows. Greater global risk aversion and expected financial market volatility seem to have been the most important factors behind the decrease in cross-border bank flows during the crisis of 2007-08. The decrease in cross-border loans to central and eastern Europe was more limited compared to Asia and Latin America, in large measure because of the higher degree of financial and monetary integration in Europe, and relatively sound banking systems in the region. These results are robust to various specification, sub-samples and econometric methodologies.
Download or read book Impact of the Global Crisis on Neighbouring Countries of the EU written by European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global crisis that originated in developed economies has increasingly spread to emerging and developing countries via several transmission channels with negative spillovers. As a consequence EU neighbouring countries, being emerging and developing economies, face severe strains. The economies of the eastern EU neighbouring countries are expected to contract by 4% in 2009, being a 10 percentage point reduction in economic growth in comparison with 2008. Also, the economies at the southern Mediterranean rim see their economic growth halved. While having a similar set of policy instruments at their disposal as developed countries, challenges of mitigating or reversing the impact of the global crisis are quite different. This review analyzes the crisisœ impact on the economic outlook in-depth for the CIS region, for the Mediterranean region, and for the individual economies (including the GCC). Although financial indicators lead us to the conclusion that the CIS region is more exposed than the Mediterranean region, the latter is not sheltered and as vulnerable. The review points at combinations of vulnerabilities in both regions, which compound the risk of fiscal unsustainability and financial stress, relatively weak private sectors, high unemployment rates and weak automatic stabilisers, a shallow financial sector which hampered the rise of economic activity and thus welfare levels in the past, and a lack of buffers.
Download or read book Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Based on a Markov Switching model, high financial stress regimes are identified and a simple algorithm is used to select those episodes of financial stress that are associated with a substantial negative impact on the real economy. By applying this framework to 27 EU countries, the paper is a first attempt to provide a chronology of systemic financial stress episodes in addition to the expert-detected events available so far.
Download or read book The Transformation of the European Financial System written by Vitor Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Stress Banking Stress and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area written by Oliver Holtemöller and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we investigate to what extent sovereign stress and banking stress have contributed to the increase in the level and in the heterogeneity of non-financial firms' refinancing costs in the Euro area during the European debt crisis and how they did affect the monetary transmission mechanism. We identify the increasing effect of government bond yield spreads (sovereign stress) and the share of non-performing loans (banking stress) on firms' financing costs using an instrumental-variable approach. Moreover, we estimate both sources of stress to have significantly impaired the monetary transmission mechanism during the European debt crisis.
Download or read book State space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
