Download or read book Tracking the German Business Cycle written by Tino Berger and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the Germany output gap up to three months prior to a gross domestic product data release. To this end, we elicit a mixed-frequency vector-autoregressive model in the spirit of Berger, Morley, and Wong (forthcoming) who propose to use monthly information to form an expectation about the current-quarter output gap. The mean absolute error of our nowcast is very small (0.25 percentage points) after only one month of observed data. Moreover, we show that international trade and labour market aggregates consistently explain large shares of variation in the German output gap.
Download or read book Tracking Down the Business Cycle written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that Germany's industrial sector developed earlier than stated in the literature, since after the 1860s agricultural time series do not comove with the business cycle anymore. Also, the bulk of comovement between 1820 and 1913 can be traced back to five out of 18 series representing industrial production, investment and demand for industrial inputs. Our factor is impressingly confirmed by a stock price index, leading the factor by 1-2 years. We also find evidence for early market integration in the 1820s and 1830s. Our business cycle dating aims to resolve the debate on German business cycle history. Given the often unsatisfactory quality of national accounting data for the 19th century we show the advantage of dynamic factor models in making efficient use of rare historical time series. -- Business Cycle Chronology ; Imperial Germany ; Dynamic Factor Models ; Industrialization
Download or read book German Business Cycles 1924 1933 written by Carl Theodore Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 1934 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Data Analysis and Decision Support written by Daniel Baier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-06 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a great privilege and pleasure to write a foreword for a book honor ing Wolfgang Gaul on the occasion of his sixtieth birthday. Wolfgang Gaul is currently Professor of Business Administration and Management Science and the Head of the Institute of Decision Theory and Management Science, Faculty of Economics, University of Karlsruhe (TH), Germany. He is, by any measure, one of the most distinguished and eminent scholars in the world today. Wolfgang Gaul has been instrumental in numerous leading research initia tives and has achieved an unprecedented level of success in facilitating com munication among researchers in diverse disciplines from around the world. A particularly remarkable and unique aspect of his work is that he has been a leading scholar in such diverse areas of research as graph theory and net work models, reliability theory, stochastic optimization, operations research, probability theory, sampling theory, cluster analysis, scaling and multivariate data analysis. His activities have been directed not only at these and other theoretical topics, but also at applications of statistical and mathematical tools to a multitude of important problems in computer science (e.g., w- mining), business research (e.g., market segmentation), management science (e.g., decision support systems) and behavioral sciences (e.g., preference mea surement and data mining). All of his endeavors have been accomplished at the highest level of professional excellence.
Download or read book Econometric Business Cycle Research written by Jan Jacobs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
Download or read book Doing Business 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-21 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.
Download or read book Wilhelm R pke 1899 1966 written by Patricia Commun and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-15 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a comprehensive account of Wilhelm Röpke as a liberal political economist and social philosopher. Wilhelm Röpke (1899-1966) was a key protagonist of transatlantic neoliberalism, a prominent public intellectual and a gifted international networker. As an original thinker, he always positioned himself at the interface between political economy and social philosophy, as well as between liberalism and conservatism. Röpke’s endeavors to combine these elements into a coherent whole, as well as his embeddedness in European and American intellectual networks of liberal and conservative thinkers, are a central theme throughout the book. The volume includes papers by international experts from a conference in Geneva on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Röpke’s passing. The first part focuses on new biographical insights into his exile years in Istanbul and Geneva, while the second part discusses his business cycle theory in the context of the Great Depression, and the third part elaborates on his multifaceted social philosophy. Wilhelm Röpke was among the most important thinkers within the classical liberal revival post-WWII, with intriguing tensions between liberalism and conservatism. A highly recommended volume. –– Peter J. Boettke, 2016-2018 President of the Mont Pèlerin Society and Professor of Economics and Philosophy, George Mason University This important collection of papers provides an in-depth assessment of Wilhelm Röpke’s contributions, placing him in the context of his time. A fine contribution. –– Bruce J. Caldwell, Director of the Center for the History of Political Economy and Research Professor of Economics, Duke University
Download or read book The Eurosceptical Reader 2 written by M. Holmes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-30 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Europe is the biggest political issue in contemporary Britain. The contributions to this volume all express disapproval and doubt about the integration process. Some favour EU membership while rejecting the single currency; others favour renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU; others recommend withdrawal. But different preferred solutions do not obscure a commonality of belief that the status quo of EU membership, leading inexorably to a monetary and fiscal euroland, is undesirable and should be democratically resisted. Similarly Tony Blair's advocacy of a 'superpower' Europe is conceptually repudiated.
Download or read book Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Download or read book Handbook of Survey Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies - on the consequence of the survey results - is presented. The significance of the surveys applies equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations. This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.
Download or read book Germany written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-10-28 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes Germany’s past fiscal policy behavior and assesses the likely adjustments that would be necessary to bring future fiscal policy behavior in line with European Monetary Union and the Stability and Growth Pact requirements. Using estimated fiscal policy reaction functions that take account Germany’s decentralized fiscal decision-making structure, the statistical results suggest that discretionary fiscal policy at the general government level has maintained a procyclical stance since the end of the 1970s. The paper also examines disaggregated labor market developments in Germany.
Download or read book EMU Financial Markets and the World Economy written by Thomas Moser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an event of historic proportions with far-reaching implications in the years to come. The essays in this collection provide an analysis of several theoretical and policy issues associated with these implications. They are organized under four broad issues. Firstly, the likely consequences of the euro for the international monetary system is analyzed, and its role as an international currency and the level and long-run volatility of its rate of exchange against other major currencies is explored. Secondly, the potential long-run impact of the EMU on European capital markets, diversification opportunities, and the analytical framework for equity and fixed income analysts are explored. Thirdly, macroeconomic policy issues resulting from the institutional design of EMU are investigated. Finally, the possible impact of EMU on countries outside the euro area is discussed, particularly on countries in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Mediterranean basin, in Africa, and in the Middle East.
Download or read book Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity written by Alfred Kleinknecht and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Investment Timing and the Business Cycle written by Jon Gregory Taylor and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-11-25 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ein übersichtlicher Leitfaden für eine nützliche Technik! Der Autor, Experte der Zeitplanung im Investmentgeschäft, erklärt dem Finanz- und Investmentprofi in diesem Buch, wie er seinen Ertrag in verschiedenen Stadien des Geschäftszyklus abschätzen kann. Dabei wird auf alle Facetten des Investments wie Aktien-, Wertpapier- und Fondsgeschäft eingegangen. (11/97)
Download or read book Handbook of Survey Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. - Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies on the consequence of the survey results is presented. The significance of the surveys applied equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
Download or read book Selected Cliometric Studies on German Economic History written by John Komlos and published by Franz Steiner Verlag. This book was released on 1997 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wirtschaftsgeschichtliche Forschung kann nur interdisziplin�r betrieben werden und ihre Aufgabe der Vertiefung unseres Verst�ndnisses von sozio-�konomischen Prozessen und deren Interaktion mit politischen Entwicklungen erfuellen, wenn �konomische Theorie vernuenftig angewendet wird. Zwei amerikanische Wissenschaftler, Douglas North und Robert Fogel, wurden 1993 mit dem Nobelpreis fuer Wirtschaftswissenschaften fuer ihre Pionierarbeit in Kliometrie, der Verbindung von �konomie und Geschichte, ausgezeichnet. In Nordamerika ist der Paradigmenwechsel vollst�ndig vollzogen: Kliometrie ist bereits eine �normale Wissenschaft�. Der vorliegende Band, vornehmlich von amerikanischen Gelehrten mit wirtschaftswissenschaftlichem Sachverstand geschrieben, liefert der deutschen akademischen Gemeinschaft wenig bekannte, jedoch bahnbrechende Artikel. .
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
