Download or read book Time Varying Risk Premiums and Term Premiums in Commodity Futures written by Denis B. Chaves and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Term premiums, defined as the excess return of long-dated contracts over short-dated contracts, in commodity futures are strongly predictable, both in the time series and in the cross section, by roll yield spreads. Strategies that exploit this predictability show sizable Sharpe ratios and are uncorrelated with strategies that exploit predictability in risk premiums using the basis in futures prices, that is, use contango and backwardation conditions in futures market to develop their strategies.
Download or read book Time Varying Risk Premia in Futures Markets written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-12-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the presence of risk premium in commodity futures markets. The statistical tests are derived from a formal model of asset pricing and are applied to futures prices in a variety of commodity markets. The results suggest that for several commodities there is evidence of a time varying risk premium, particularly in futures contracts maturing six months ahead. The implications of the study for the efficiency of the futures markets and the costs of using these markets for hedging are also noted.
Download or read book Time Varying Risk Premia in Futures Markets written by Graciela Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the presence of risk premium in commodity futures markets. The statistical tests are derived from a formal model of asset pricing and are applied to futures prices in a variety of commodity markets. The results suggest that for several commodities there is evidence of a time varying risk premium, particularly in futures contracts maturing six months ahead. The implications of the study for the efficiency of the futures markets and the costs of using these markets for hedging are also noted.
Download or read book Re examining the Futures Market Efficiency Using a New Approach in the Presence of a Time Varying Risk Premium written by Duminda Kuruppuarachchi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine the market efficiency of commodity futures using a new approach that accounts for both time-varying risk premium and conditional heteroscedasticity of spot prices. The conventional market efficiency tests so far in the literature are based on either risk neutral or constant risk premium assumptions as such they are biased towards the rejection of the market efficiency hypothesis especially for commodity futures. The time varying risk premium is estimated using a state space model with a modified Kalman filter. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we show that the proposed test produces robust and superior results under varying market conditions compared to the conventional approaches. By employing the proposed test we analyse the efficiency of crude oil, corn, copper and gold futures and find that gold futures is inefficient throughout the sample period 2000-2011 while others are efficient especially after the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008. We also find significant changes in the underlying risk premiums due to the GFC. We extend the analysis to a comprehensive sample of 85 commodities traded on 16 exchanges worldwide and find that efficiency and risk premiums vary across the four market sectors while GFC has caused to increase both efficiency and risk premiums in all markets other than precious metals.
Download or read book Commodity Futures Forecast Returns and Not Prices written by Davidson Heath and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the forecastability of prices and returns in commodity futures markets. To examine the implications for models of commodity prices we derive a new canonical affine form that lends itself to model evaluation and comparison. Both regressions and model estimates imply that effectively all variation in the term structure of futures prices is due to time varying risk premiums and none to price forecasts. The model estimates further suggest that the economic quantity that links futures prices to storage -- the cost of carry -- is pinned down unambiguously by the data.
Download or read book Economic Forces and Commodity Futures Prices written by Warren Bernard Bailey and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in the Commodities Futures Markets Theory and Evidence written by S. E. Beck and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Commodity Futures Risk Premium written by Nemanja [Verfasser] Bacinac and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity futures, as derived instruments from the larger commodity asset class, are playing a very important role in todays globalised economy, with their main task - insuring companies future values of their inputs and/or outputs. From mid-2000s investments in various commodity futures have grown significantly, along with the inherent commodity prices. A great deal of individuals as well as institutional investors have embraced this type of alternative investment instruments for their presupposed equity-like returns, risk premiums, diversification and positive inflation correlation benefits. A commodity futures investor can consistently earn his risk premium in this specific market only if the commodity futures prices are on average determined at a lower level than the expected future spot prices of underlying commodities. Models presented in this paper are in favour of the view that commodity futures investors can be, depending on a time-frame, looking forward to positive risk premiums in commodity futures markets.*****Commodity futures, as derived instruments from the larger commodity asset class, are playing a very important role in todays globalised economy, with their main task - insuring companies future values of their inputs and/or outputs. From mid-2000s investments in various commodity futures have grown significantly, along with the inherent commodity prices. A great deal of individuals as well as institutional investors have embraced this type of alternative investment instruments for their presupposed equity-like returns, risk premiums, diversification and positive inflation correlation benefits. A commodity futures investor can consistently earn his risk premium in this specific market only if the commodity futures prices are on average determined at a lower level than the expected future spot prices of underlying commodities. Models presented in this paper are in favour of the view that commodity futures investors can be, depending on a time-frame, looking forward to positive risk premiums in commodity futures markets.
Download or read book Commodities and the Market Price of Risk written by Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on detailed regulatory intervention data among German banks during 1994-2008, we test if supervisory measures affect the likelihood and the timing of bank recovery. Severe regulatory measures increase both the likelihood of recovery and its duration while weak measures are insignificant. With the benefit of hindsight, we exclude banks that eventually exit the market due to restructuring mergers. Our results remain intact, thus providing no evidence of "bad" bank selection for intervention purposes on the side of regulators. More transparent publication requirements of public incorporation that indicate more exposure to market discipline are barely or not at all significant. Increasing earnings and cleaning credit portfolios are consistently of importance to increase recovery likelihood, whereas earnings growth accelerates the timing of recovery. Macroeconomic conditions also matter for bank recovery. Hence, concerted micro- and macro-prudential policies are key to facilitate distressed bank recovery.
Download or read book The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns written by Gary Gorton and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity futures risk premiums vary across commodities and over time depending on the level of physical inventories, as predicted by the Theory of Storage. Using a comprehensive dataset on 31 commodity futures and physical inventories between 1969 and 2006, we show that the convenience yield is a decreasing, non-linear relationship of inventories. Price measures, such as the futures basis, prior futures returns, and spot returns reflect the state of inventories and are informative about commodity futures risk premiums. The excess returns to Spot and Futures Momentum and Backwardation strategies stem in part from the selection of commodities when inventories are low. Positions of futures markets participants are correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian "hedging pressure" hypothesis that these positions are an important determinant of risk premiums.
Download or read book Risk Premia in Futures Markets written by Jisoo Yoo and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Capturing the Risk Premium of Commodity Futures written by Devraj Basu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct long-short factor mimicking portfolios that capture the hedging pressure risk premium of commodity futures. We consider single sorts based on the open interests of either hedgers or speculators, as well as double sorts based on both positions. The long-short hedging pressure portfolios are priced cross-sectionally and offer Sharpe ratios that systematically exceed those of long-only benchmarks. Further tests show that the hedging pressure risk premiums rise with the volatility of commodity futures markets and that the predictive power of hedging pressure over cross-sectional commodity futures returns is different from the previously documented forecasting power of past returns and the slope of the term structure.
Download or read book An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia written by Marta Szymanowska and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We identify two types of risk premia in commodity futures returns: spot premia related to the risk in the underlying commodity, and term premia related to changes in the basis. Sorting on forecasting variables such as the futures basis, return momentum, volatility, inflation, hedging pressure, and liquidity, results in sizable spot premia in the high-minus-low sorted portfolios between 5% and 14% per annum and term premia between 1% and 3% per annum. We show that a single factor, the high-minus-low portfolio from basis sorts, explains the cross-section of spot premia. Two additional basis factors are needed to explain the term premia.
Download or read book The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns written by Gary B. Gorton and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity futures risk premiums vary across commodities and over time depending on the level of physical inventories, as predicted by the Theory of Storage. Using a comprehensive dataset on 31 commodity futures and physical inventories between 1969 and 2006, we show that the convenience yield is a decreasing, non-linear relationship of inventories. Price measures, such as the futures basis, prior futures returns, and spot returns reflect the state of inventories and are informative about commodity futures risk premiums. The excess returns to Spot and Futures Momentum and Backwardation strategies stem in part from the selection of commodities when inventories are low. Positions of futures markets participants are correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian quot;hedging pressurequot; hypothesis that these positions are an important determinant of risk premiums.
Download or read book The Handbook of Commodity Investing written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-02 with total page 986 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Filled with a comprehensive collection of information from experts in the commodity investment industry, this detailed guide shows readers how to successfully incorporate commodities into their portfolios. Created with both the professional and individual investor in mind, The Handbook of Commodity Investments covers a wide range of issues, including the risk and return of commodities, diversification benefits, risk management, macroeconomic determinants of commodity investments, and commodity trading advisors. Starting with the basics of commodity investments and moving to more complex topics, such as performance measurement, asset pricing, and value at risk, The Handbook of Commodity Investments is a reliable resource for anyone who needs to understand this dynamic market.
Download or read book Pricing Metal Futures The Two Regime Pricing Model revisited written by Matthias Lassak and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2017-11-01 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Two-Regime-Pricing (TRP) model developed by Bühler, Korn and Schöbel (2004) is an important bridge between two strands of the literature of commodity futures pricing. It incorporates both the notion of a “convenience yield” and the idea of pricing based on the underlying spot price process. This work uses the TRP model and applies the findings to the pricing of industrial metal futures. In detail, the purpose of this study is to price a variety of futures contracts written on the traded industrial metals Aluminium, Aluminium Alloy, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Zinc using the TRP model and to analyze ist strengths and weaknesses in doing so. Given the spot price specification, a bootstrap maximum likelihood estimation is performed to determine the model parameters. Given the estimation results, the out-of-sample performance of the TRP model is compared to two benchmark models in the literature. In addition, the behavior of the theoretical futures prices is matched to metal futures properties observed in the market. By outlining the statistical challenges in estimation and forecasting in much detail, this work is valuable for researchers and academics in the field of derivatives pricing.
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
