Download or read book Three Essays in Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis written by Devalina Chatterjee and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this dissertation is to verify and explain the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign exchange market. Since in most of the cases the unbiasedness hypothesis fails to hold, we try to provide three different explanations of this puzzling behavior in the three essays. The first essay tries to resolve the forward premium puzzle by addressing the model misspecification issue and thereby adding a time-varying risk premium term in the percentage change specification. The risk premium term is modeled using the GARCH-M representation and the model is estimated by applying a GARCH (1, 1) specification. The second essay attributes the failure of the unbiasedness hypothesis to hold to the nonstationarity of the spot and forward exchange rate. It verifies the existence of a cointegrating relationship between the spot and the forward exchange rates and thus specifies an Error Correction Model to better capture the relation between the spot and the forward rates. Further, a cointegrating or the existence of a long run relationship between the spot and forward exchange rates and the domestic and foreign interest rates is tested. It can be viewed as a robustness check where we ensure whether the cointegrated exchange rates are still related in the long run with the inclusion of the interest rates. The objective of the third essay is to apply the generalized method of moments (GMM) to test the unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign exchange market. Empirical evidence suggests that the spot and forward rates are nonstationary with unit roots and are cointegrated. Cointegration further suggests that the changes in the spot rate can be modeled by an Error Correction Model. The third essay explicitly derives an ECM from the levels specification and uses the GMM estimation technique to test the unbiasedness hypothesis.
Download or read book Three Essays on Spot and Forward Foreign Exchange Rates written by Peter L. Bossaerts and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on China s Foreign Exchange Markets written by Yi David Wang and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is a compilation of three essays I wrote during my investigation of China's foreign exchange markets. I list the abstract of each in the following paragraphs. Essay 1: Anomaly in China's Dollar--RMB Forward Market Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar--RMB forwards and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate from October 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper hypothesizes that these violations are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy. Essay 2: Convertibility Restriction in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact on Forward Pricing Different from the well established markets such as the dollar-Euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework under which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that onshore forward rate is equal to a weighted average of CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of future spot rate, with the weight determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of future spot rate. Empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Essay 3: The Global Credit Crisis and China's Exchange Rate The case for stabilizing China's exchange rate against the dollar is strong. Before 2005 when the yuan/dollar rate was credibly fixed, it helped anchor China's domestic price level. But gradual RMB appreciation from July 2005 to July 2008 created a "one-way-bet" that disordered China's financial markets in two respects: (1) no private capital outflows to finance China's huge trade surplus leading to an undue build up of official exchange reserves and erosion of monetary control, and (2) a breakdown of the forward exchange market in 2007-08 so that exporters could no longer get trade credit—probably worsening the severe slump in Chinese exports. But after July 2008, the credit crunch induced an unexpected unwinding of the dollar carry trade leading to a sharp appreciation in the dollar's effective exchange rate. The People's Bank of China (PBC) then stopped RMB appreciation against the dollar. China's forward exchange market was restored and monetary control regained. Now the PBC can better support the fiscal stimulus by promoting a parallel expansion of bank credit. But, since March 2009, the fall in the dollar (with the RMB tied to it) again threatens to undermine the yuan/dollar rate and China's monetary stability.
Download or read book Three Essays on Long Term Borrowing Corporate Finance and Exchange Rates written by Srijana Dhakhwa and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on China s Foreign Exchange Markets written by Yi David Wang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is a compilation of three essays I wrote during my investigation of China's foreign exchange markets. I list the abstract of each in the following paragraphs. Essay 1: Anomaly in China's Dollar--RMB Forward Market Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar--RMB forwards and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate from October 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper hypothesizes that these violations are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy. Essay 2: Convertibility Restriction in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact on Forward Pricing Different from the well established markets such as the dollar-Euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework under which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that onshore forward rate is equal to a weighted average of CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of future spot rate, with the weight determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of future spot rate. Empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Essay 3: The Global Credit Crisis and China's Exchange Rate The case for stabilizing China's exchange rate against the dollar is strong. Before 2005 when the yuan/dollar rate was credibly fixed, it helped anchor China's domestic price level. But gradual RMB appreciation from July 2005 to July 2008 created a "one-way-bet" that disordered China's financial markets in two respects: (1) no private capital outflows to finance China's huge trade surplus leading to an undue build up of official exchange reserves and erosion of monetary control, and (2) a breakdown of the forward exchange market in 2007-08 so that exporters could no longer get trade credit--probably worsening the severe slump in Chinese exports. But after July 2008, the credit crunch induced an unexpected unwinding of the dollar carry trade leading to a sharp appreciation in the dollar's effective exchange rate. The People's Bank of China (PBC) then stopped RMB appreciation against the dollar. China's forward exchange market was restored and monetary control regained. Now the PBC can better support the fiscal stimulus by promoting a parallel expansion of bank credit. But, since March 2009, the fall in the dollar (with the RMB tied to it) again threatens to undermine the yuan/dollar rate and China's monetary stability.
Download or read book Three Essays in the Theory of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Andrew Renfrew Criswell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in Policy Regime Changes Interest Rate Volatility and Federal Reserve Credibility written by Gikas Angelos Hardouvelis and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intervention Interest Rates and Charts written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-11-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper contains essays on sterilized intervention, on covered interest rate parity, and on chartist analysis in financial markets. Each essay contains a definition, brief survey of the empirical evidence and overall assessment of each topic.
Download or read book Theoretical and Empirical Essays on the Determination of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates written by Thomas C. Glaessner and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Byong-Ju Lee and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.
Download or read book Essays in International Economics written by Peter B. Kenen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written form 1957 through 1978 by one of the foremost authorities in the field of international economics, this collection of Peter Kenen's previously published essays deals with issues in the pure theory of international trade, international monetary theory, and international monetary reform. The essays in Part I, "Trade, Tariffs, and Welfare," concern the roles of tangible and human capital in the determination of trade patterns, the joint determination of demand conditions and trade patterns, the gains from international trade, and the effects of migration on economic welfare. Part II, "International Monetary Theory and Policy," contains essays on the theory of gold-exchange standard, the determination of forward exchange rates, the demand for international reserves, economic integration and the delineation of currency areas, and the process of balance of payments adjustment under pegged and floating exchange rates. The essays in Part III, "Monetary Reform and the Dollar," are arranged in chonological order, from 1963 through 1977, and focus on the problems and progress of international monetary reform and on the functioning of the present international monetary system. Peter B. Kenen is Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance at Princeton University. The Princeton Sereies of Collected Essays provides facsimile reprints, in paperback and in cloth, of important articles by leading scholars. Originally published in 1981. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Download or read book Autograph Letter Signed from Edward Hughes Woughton Buckinghamshire to Sir Christopher Hatton written by and published by . This book was released on 1618 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About a disputed living.
Download or read book Three Essays on Electricity Spot and Financial Derivative Prices at the Nordic Power Exchange written by Daniel Deng and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Managing Foreign Exchange Risk written by Richard J. Herring and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-04-30 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of essays about foreign exchange risk and how to cope with it.
Download or read book Three Essays on International Finance written by Keun Yeong Lee and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Theory 16Th Edition written by M C Vaish and published by Vikas Publishing House. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary Theory Is A Comprehensive Textbook That Meets The Needs Of Students At The Honours And Post-Graduate Level. The Sixteenth Edition Has Been Thoroughly Revised And Updated. The Book Is Divided Into Five Parts Viz Money And Prices; Trade Cycle And S
Download or read book Lettre d un amateur du bien public sur le projet du r tablissement des tats de la Guienne written by and published by . This book was released on 1789 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
