Download or read book Three Essays on Risk and U S Commodity Exports written by Qiang Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Commodity Risk Management written by Shi Wei and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three papers on risk management with empirical applications for commodity markets. The first two papers analyze selective hedging, where risk managers have views on future market conditions and sometimes hedge selectively based on these views. I develop two Bayesian optimal hedging models based on the Bayesian portfolio optimization framework. The Bayesian approach is chosen because it jointly considers subjective views and parameter estimation risk. The first paper considers only subjective views and estimation risk regarding the expectation vector of asset returns, while the second paper extends the framework to the covariance matrix of asset returns. Numerical examples in these studies show that subjective views can have a substantial impact on risk managers' hedging decisions and that the impact is most evident when the hedger speculates on market price direction and/or is pessimistic about the effectiveness of hedging, i.e., a breakdown in the correlation among different markets. Overall, the Bayesian optimal hedging models not only help explain the large cross-sectional and time-series variation in hedging positions often observed in practice, but also provide risk managers with a theoretically intuitive yet quantitatively rigorous tool to blend their views on market conditions with a "market-wide" or "firm-wide" consensus in determining optimal hedging positions. The third paper estimates the cost (i.e., risk premium) of pre-harvest forward contracting for wheat in Illinois and Kansas. Given the similarities between forward and futures markets, regression models used for testing the risk premium hypothesis in futures markets are applied to forward markets. Cost is estimated for both unconditional and conditional levels. The empirical results show that the average cost of forward contracting is higher than that of futures hedging in both states and cost varies systematically in relation to the level and volatility of forward prices.
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Byong-Ju Lee and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.
Download or read book Three Essays on China s Foreign Exchange Markets written by Yi David Wang and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is a compilation of three essays I wrote during my investigation of China's foreign exchange markets. I list the abstract of each in the following paragraphs. Essay 1: Anomaly in China's Dollar--RMB Forward Market Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar--RMB forwards and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate from October 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper hypothesizes that these violations are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy. Essay 2: Convertibility Restriction in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact on Forward Pricing Different from the well established markets such as the dollar-Euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework under which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that onshore forward rate is equal to a weighted average of CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of future spot rate, with the weight determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of future spot rate. Empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Essay 3: The Global Credit Crisis and China's Exchange Rate The case for stabilizing China's exchange rate against the dollar is strong. Before 2005 when the yuan/dollar rate was credibly fixed, it helped anchor China's domestic price level. But gradual RMB appreciation from July 2005 to July 2008 created a "one-way-bet" that disordered China's financial markets in two respects: (1) no private capital outflows to finance China's huge trade surplus leading to an undue build up of official exchange reserves and erosion of monetary control, and (2) a breakdown of the forward exchange market in 2007-08 so that exporters could no longer get trade credit—probably worsening the severe slump in Chinese exports. But after July 2008, the credit crunch induced an unexpected unwinding of the dollar carry trade leading to a sharp appreciation in the dollar's effective exchange rate. The People's Bank of China (PBC) then stopped RMB appreciation against the dollar. China's forward exchange market was restored and monetary control regained. Now the PBC can better support the fiscal stimulus by promoting a parallel expansion of bank credit. But, since March 2009, the fall in the dollar (with the RMB tied to it) again threatens to undermine the yuan/dollar rate and China's monetary stability.
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Liberalization Country Risk and Low Growth Traps in Argentina Mexico and Turkey written by Firat Demir and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Does What You Export Matter written by Daniel Lederman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-06-18 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.
Download or read book Chronicles from the Field written by Robert M. Townsend and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013-04-12 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lessons learned in the process of designing and implementing one of the longest-running panel data surveys in development economics. Running since 1997 and continuing today, the Townsend Thai Project has tracked millions of observations about the economic activities of households and institutions in rural and urban Thailand. The project represents one of the most extensive datasets in the developing world. Chronicles from the Field offers an account of the design and implementation of this unique panel data survey. It tells the story not only of the origins and operations of the project but also of the challenges and rewards that come from a search to understand the process of a country's economic development. The book explains the technical details of data collection and survey instruments but emphasizes the human side of the project, describing the culture shock felt by city-dwelling survey enumerators in rural villages, the “surprising, eye-opening, and inspiring” responses to survey questions, and the never-ending resourcefulness of the survey team. The text is supplemented by an epilogue on research findings and policy recommendations and an appendix that contains a list and abstracts of published and working papers, organized by topic, using data from the project. Social and economic policies are too often skewed by political considerations. The Townsend Thai Project offers another basis for policy: accurate measurement based on thoroughly collected data. From this, a clear template emerges for understanding poverty and alleviating it.
Download or read book A Basic Guide to Exporting written by Jason Katzman and published by Skyhorse Publishing Inc.. This book was released on 2011-03-23 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here is practical advice for anyone who wants to build their business by selling overseas. The International Trade Administration covers key topics such as marketing, legal issues, customs, and more. With real-life examples and a full index, A Basic Guide to Exporting provides expert advice and practical solutions to meet all of your exporting needs.
Download or read book Three Essays on Foreign Investment written by Krishna Srinivasan and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade Murky Protectionism and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Download or read book Handbook of Multi Commodity Markets and Products written by Andrea Roncoroni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 1067 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and ProductsOver recent decades, the marketplace has seen an increasing integration, not only among different types of commodity markets such as energy, agricultural, and metals, but also with financial markets. This trend raises important questions about how to identify and analyse opportunities in and manage risks of commodity products. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers traders, commodity brokers, and other professionals a practical and comprehensive manual that covers market structure and functioning, as well as the practice of trading across a wide range of commodity markets and products. Written in non-technical language, this important resource includes the information needed to begin to master the complexities of and to operate successfully in today’s challenging and fluctuating commodity marketplace. Designed as a practical practitioner-orientated resource, the book includes a detailed overview of key markets – oil, coal, electricity, emissions, weather, industrial metals, freight, agricultural and foreign exchange – and contains a set of tools for analysing, pricing and managing risk for the individual markets. Market features and the main functioning rules of the markets in question are presented, along with the structure of basic financial products and standardised deals. A range of vital topics such as stochastic and econometric modelling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, as well as risk assessment and management are presented and discussed in detail with illustrative examples to commodity markets. The authors showcase how to structure and manage both simple and more complex multi-commodity deals. Addressing the issues of profit-making and risk management, the book reveals how to exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies on a diversified set of commodity prices. In addition, the book explores how to price energy products and other commodities belonging to markets segmented across specific structural features. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products includes a wealth of proven methods and useful models that can be selected and developed in order to make appropriate estimations of the future evolution of prices and appropriate valuations of products. The authors additionally explore market risk issues and what measures of risk should be adopted for the purpose of accurately assessing exposure from multi-commodity portfolios. This vital resource offers the models, tools, strategies and general information commodity brokers and other professionals need to succeed in today’s highly competitive marketplace.
Download or read book The Rural written by Richard Munton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-05-15 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rural has long been regarded as an important site of geographical inquiry even if our understanding of it has not always been treated as conceptually different from the urban. That said, rural research has pursued a number of distinct empirical agendas ranging from the operation and impacts of agribusiness, to local resistance to global food supply chains, to differing representations of the rural. In doing so, rural geographers have critically examined the relevance and significance of ideas drawn from numerous traditions including political economy, ecological modernization and cultural theory, amending them as appropriate, in their search to understand the nature and trajectory of rural areas. Up until the 1980s, attention remained largely focused upon agriculture as the primary land-use but increasingly new forms of rural consumption - housing, recreation, nature conservation - have taken centre stage as the primacy of local agricultures has been undermined by reduced state protection and 'new' rural populations which have migrated out from the city. More recently, research has been dominated by the 'cultural turn' with particular emphases upon society-nature relations, interpretations of landscape, marginalised others, and analyses of the relations between representation and practice. In the last decade, a more holistic view of the rural, bringing together different aspects of the two previous themes, has emerged through more politically-oriented studies of rural governance concerned with the functioning of interest groups, participation, protest and the allocation and management of resources. The volume is thus structured into three sections concerned with agriculture and food, the rural, and rural governance. The great majority of the selected papers combine both empirical material - often highly informative case studies - and important conceptual arguments about change in the rural condition that can be linked to ideas being employed elsewhere in Geography and the Social Sciences more generally. These critical reflections have been drawn very largely from research conducted in advanced economies which at least provide some commonality of experience allowing the transfer of ideas between what otherwise might be seen as very differing geographical contexts.
Download or read book A P Giannini and the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics written by Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics and published by Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics University of California. This book was released on 2009 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy written by John Stuart Mill and published by . This book was released on 1844 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
