Download or read book Three Essays on Model Selection in Time Series Econometrics written by Niels Mariano Aka and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics written by Zhengfeng Guo and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Investments and Time Series Econometrics written by Joshua Andrew Brooks and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation includes three essays on investments and time series econometrics. This work gives new insight into the behavior of implied marginal tax rates, implied volatility, and option pricing models. The first essay examines the movement of implied marginal tax rates. A body of research points to the existence of implied marginal tax rates that can be extracted from security or derivative prices. We use the LIBOR-based interest rate swap curve and the MSI-based interest rate swap curve to examine changes in the implied tax rate. We document multiple statistically and economically significant structural breaks in the long-run implied marginal tax rate that are not exclusively located in the financial crisis (one as recent as October, 2010). These breaks represent persistent divergence from long run averages and indicate that mean reversion models may not accurately describe the stochastic processes of implied marginal tax rates. In the second essay, I develop an asymmetric time series model of the VIX. I show that the VIX and realized volatility display significant nonlinear effects which I approximate with a smooth-transition autoregressive model. I find that under certain regimes the VIX depends almost exclusively on previous realized volatility. Under other regimes, I find that the VIX depends on both its lags and previous realized volatility. Since the VIX has become a popular hedging instrument, this finding has important implications for risk managers who elect to use the VIX and its related investment vehicles. It also has implications for the use of implied volatility in value-at-risk forecasting. The third essay presents a new model for option pricing model selection. There is a significant performativity issue intrinsic in much of the option pricing literature. Once an option-pricing model (OPM) gains widespread acceptance, volatilities tend to move so that the OPM fits well with observed prices. This often leads to systematic mispricing based purely on model results. A number of systematic issues such as volatility smile are present in OPMs. To remedy this issue, I propose a new method for ranking OPMs based on one step ahead forecasts. This model transforms the data to build a distribution of the stochastic term present in OPM. This sample distribution is then tested for normality so that OPMs can be ranked in a Bayesian-like framework by their closeness to a normal distribution.

Download or read book Three Essays on Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Zlatina Balabanova and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Model Selection written by Fangning Li and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in the Econometrics of Time Series written by Chung-Hua Shen and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics written by Niels Haldrup and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.

Download or read book Three Essays in Time Series Econometrics written by Christian Kascha and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three essays on econometric analysis of functional time series written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Applied Spatial and Time Series Econometrics written by Omer Kara and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Taylor Collins and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is composed of four chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the paper by highlighting some of the key economic questions, econometric methods, and conclusions that this paper chronicles. In Chapter 2, I conduct a range of unit root tests on the unemployment rates of 30 OECD countries. The objective of these tests are to use modern data and methods to update an old line of research that endeavors to uncover the most appropriate way to model unemployment. I find less evidence supporting Structural theories of unemployment than have prior studies in this field. In Chapter 3, I turn my attention to US monetary policy. Specifically, I utilize a new estimation technique called the Beverage-Nelson Filter to construct output gaps for use in an introductory Taylor Rule study. I revisit a marquee paper from John Taylor, conduct a structural change test of Bai and Perron, and utilize a wide modeling of monetary policy rules. I find that the Federal Funds Rate displayed as strong an adherence to baseline Taylor Rules through the 1960s as in any other era. Chapter 4 then turns the focus to New Zealand monetary policy and their role as the world's first inflation targeting country. In this chapter, I study the effects of the inflation rate and it's forecasted value for the following two years on New Zealand's Official Cash Rate and the country's Industrial Production Index. Using a set of Threshold Regressions and VAR Regressions, I find that New Zealand's interest rate responds much more strongly to the medium-run projected inflation than it does to inflation that is realized or projected to occur in the short run. I also find evidence that production in New Zealand is more responsive to changes in projected inflation than to changers in the interest rate.

Download or read book Three Essays in Time Series Econometrics written by Atsushi Inoue and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Time Series Analysis and Neural Networks in Econometrics written by Gerhard Fechteler and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Firouz Fallahi and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Trend Analysis and Misspecification in Structural Econometric Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this research has been to look into several econometric issues of concern to researchers doing applied work in macroeconomics. The first essay looks at Bureau of Economic Analysis data on inventories and sales of finished goods often used in studies of inventory behavior. Applying recently developed methods, the series are rigorously tested to determine their stationarity properties. Results indicate that neither first differencing nor linearly detrending the data is appropriate. For most series a trend function with one or more breaks offers a better fit and also generates stationarity. The results are used to determine the impact on estimation in a simple production-smoothing model of inventory behavior. The impact of different trend specifications on univariate forecasting of inventories is also considered. The second essay considers an alternative method of detrending time series data -- the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Previous research has shown that HP filtering can have serious adverse consequences when used to analyze co-movements between data series at business cycle frequencies. Despite this, the filter has also been used to induce stationarity in a data series prior to estimation of structural econometric models. Little work has been done in analyzing the possible effects this may have on parameter estimates from such models. A simulation study is conducted to assess the impact of HP filtering on parameter estimation and a comparison is made to other detrending methods. It is shown that the HP filter induces bias in the parameter estimates and also increases the root mean squared error of the estimates from the simulations. In addition, there is some adverse impact on the size of certain test statistics. The final essay looks at the impact of misspecification on estimation results from a structural econometric model when using a Generalized Method of Moments estimator. Simulated data consistent with a particular specification of the.

Download or read book Time Series Techniques for Economists written by Terence C. Mills and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application of time series techniques in economics has become increasingly important, both for forecasting purposes and in the empirical analysis of time series in general. In this book, Terence Mills not only brings together recent research at the frontiers of the subject, but also analyses the areas of most importance to applied economics. It is an up-to-date text which extends the basic techniques of analysis to cover the development of methods that can be used to analyse a wide range of economic problems. The book analyses three basic areas of time series analysis: univariate models, multivariate models, and non-linear models. In each case the basic theory is outlined and then extended to cover recent developments. Particular emphasis is placed on applications of the theory to important areas of applied economics and on the computer software and programs needed to implement the techniques. This book clearly distinguishes itself from its competitors by emphasising the techniques of time series modelling rather than technical aspects such as estimation, and by the breadth of the models considered. It features many detailed real-world examples using a wide range of actual time series. It will be useful to econometricians and specialists in forecasting and finance and accessible to most practitioners in economics and the allied professions.

Download or read book Three Essays on Nonlinear Time series Econometrics written by Novella Maugeri and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: