Download or read book Three essays on international markets efficiency written by Jose Humberto Guevara and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays On International Market Efficiency and Manipulation written by Feng Zhan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Market Efficiency written by Thanasin Tanompongphandh and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation tackles the concept of market efficiency from three distinct topics in applied economics, from microfinance, to agriculture commodity market, and further to market microstructure of the most advanced economy. The first essay, entitled "Market Efficiency and Price Discovery Among Leading Rice Exporting Countries", focuses on the issue of rice market efficiency. The study establishes, under Johansen's procedure, that there are long-run price co-movements existing among the three major rice-exporting countries, and within the United States domestic markets, the long-run efficient linkage between spot and future prices of rough rice, as Chicago Board of Trade rough rice futures converge to United States Department of Agriculture rough rice prices in a cash market. Regarding the efficiency among the export market prices, results show that the hypothesis of market efficiency are rejected in two of the three pairs, namely Thai-Vietnam and ThaiUS(Arkansas). The Gonzalo & Granger (1995) decomposition method finds that the Thai and United States rice are dominant in the price discovery process. Within the United States domestic markets, the dominant is the futures market followed by the cash market of the rough rice and then the milled rice export price. The second essay, entitled "Determinants for Formal Credit and Informal Credit Access: The Case of Thai Farm Households", examines determinants for Thai agricultural households' participation in formal and its informal parallel credit markets. The study follows Heckman's two-stage selection model (1979) approach to determine the informal loan participation of Thai agricultural households. Results reveal that households tend to 'stick' to the credit market in which they were previously engaged. This finding reinforces the vicious cycle which makes it more difficult for farmers to get out of debt. Secondly, the study finds that wealthier households are less likely to access credit, and are more likely to participate in formal credits than their less wealthy peers. Results also show less probability of credit access between May and December coinciding with the planting and harvesting season accentuating the nature of loans as working-capital rather than consumption loans. Finally, the study discovers that households with owned farmland are more likely to participate in the formal credit market, while households with rented farmland are more likely to participate in the informal credit market stressing the use of owned land as collateral to participate in the former. The final essay, entitled "On the Challenge of Testing Weak-Form Market Efficiency using High Frequency Data", explores the issue of efficiency in microstructure of the Exchange-Traded-Fund (ETF). This essay shows that the profitability of a simple technical trading strategy hinges heavily on the way the Trades And Quotes (TAQ) dataset is filtered for mistakes and outliers. This paper uses ultra-high-frequency TAQ data that cover the time-span since the inception of the S & P 500 ETF from January 1993 to December 2006. First, a widely used filtering methodology proposed by Hasbrouck (2003) is adopted. Under this methodology, the technical trading strategy clearly outperforms the buy-and-hold benchmark. However, when a more appropriate (stringent) filtering methodology is used, the technical trading strategy clearly underperforms the buy-and-hold benchmark. This evidence suggests that studies that based their methodology on Hasbrouck's (2003) less stringent filtering criterion could produce misleading results.
Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Byong-Ju Lee and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.
Download or read book Three Essays on Bubbles Fundamentals and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Markets written by Cagdas Tahaoglu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that address recent topics in financial markets that concern for scholars, policymakers, and investors. The first essay examines the benefits of international diversification for US investors, while accounting for market development, corporate governance, market cap effects, and structural change across countries over period August 1996 -July 2013. Improved risk adjusted returns are obtained from a diversified portfolio consisting of a mix of developed and emerging countries. Additionally, we find that diversification benefits are not significant for most of the small-cap foreign assets when an investor already holds position in corresponding countries large-cap assets. Diversification benefits based on the governance effectiveness of a country's companies are not ubiquitous. We find that economically significant improvements in risk-return performance can be attained by adding large caps of developed countries with high and low overall Governance Metrics International (GMI) ratings and large and small caps of emerging countries with low overall GMI ratings to the investment universe containing the assets of common law developed countries. However, diversification benefits are economically significant only for large and small caps of low GMI emerging countries when short selling is not allowed. The second essay looks at the market impact of recent regulatory changes in Canada that provide for trading halts on individual stocks that experience large upside or downside movements. The focus is on all stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange since the inception of the single stock circuit breaker rule (SSCB) in February 2012, to replace the short-sale uptick rule. The results support pricing efficiency: material information that caused the circuit breaker is incorporated in stock prices on the day of the halt (neither overreaction nor underreaction), with no decline in market liquidity. Using trade-by-trade data constructed on 5-minute trading intervals, we refine the daily results, and show that shocks in realized volatility are focused in the ten-minute trading interval surrounding the halts. While circuit breakers provide a limited "safety net" for investors when their stocks are subject to severe volatility, they do not provide for a quick turnaround for stocks experiencing severe price decline events. The last essay re-examines the historical vs implied volatility spread anomaly, reported by Goyal and Saretto (2009) using a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) criterion. The approach incorporates transaction frictions, and is robust to model specification problems, return distributions, as well as preferences. It is found that option trading frictions such as cash collateral requirements and option trading costs significantly reduce but do not eliminate returns to a long-short straddle trading strategy pre-2006 period. However, the anomaly disappears after 2006, consistent with market efficiency. The SSD test results confirm the findings.
Download or read book Three Essays in International Economics written by Gaofeng Han and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Market Anomalies and Efficient Market Hypothesis written by Ehab Yamani and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three distinct essays. The first essay investigates the risk interpretation of the investment premium by empirically examining the fundamental view versus the sentimental view. Overall, the results show that financial factors are the dominant driver of investment returns and they control the negative relation between investment and stock return. In the second essay, I examine the impact of financial contagion resulting from four global financial crises based on analyses of the global value premium. Results show that equity markets become more integrated after financial crises that exhibit global effects but less integrated after crises that exhibit regional effects. Overall findings support the risk story of the global value premium. The third essay examines the joint dynamics of volume and volatility in the junk bond market during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Using trading volume information as a proxy for changes in the information set available to investors when financial crises occur, I investigate the impact of the subprime crisis on the informational efficiency of the junk bond market. The overall results show that the crisis does not have an impact on the market efficiency of the junk bond market.
Download or read book Three Essays on Current International Financial Markets written by Seungho Lee and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays that address recent developments in international financial markets that have been of concern for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners. The first essay examines how cultural factors can influence individual investors' trading behavior in response to risk in nine Eurozone countries. The markets studied were particularly affected by the global financial crisis, the subsequent European banking crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis. Using mutual fund flows as proxy of investors' trading behavior, our evidence indicates that a country culture variable significantly affects investors' trading responsiveness to risk. Specifically, the impact of risk on fund flows is significantly positive and is larger in scale in countries with individualist cultures. The second essay attempts to investigate the effects of negative interest rate policies (NIRP) on foreign exchange and equity markets of eight European countries and Japan. To see the impacts of these policies, event studies and regime-switching vector autoregressive regression analyses are conducted for the nine countries that implement NIRP. The results provide valid evidence that the announcement of NIRP has a transitory effect on currency depreciation; long term effects are less evident. On the day of NIRP implementation, both currency and equity market returns reacted in response to the event efficiently and negatively, especially in Switzerland's case. These outcomes suggest that simulative monetary policy by lowering interest rates below zero might have counter-effects from those observed when interest rates are lowered, but to rates that remain positive. Additionally, findings from the long term analyses explain that interest rate term structure and cointegration level of local and the U.S. equity index may be related to effectiveness of NIRP in currency and equity markets, respectively. The last essay examines the determinants of the price of the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. The analyses identify a number of factors that significantly affect the returns to investments in Bitcoin including: trading volume, high-low price spread, and extreme price change in the previous period. The latter result supports the assertion that recent severe price fluctuations in Bitcoin markets are primarily due to speculative investment activities. Furthermore, evidences suggested in this study explain possibility of market compromise and inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market, implying pivotal risks for Bitcoin market participants.
Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Byong-Ju Lee and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Markets and Monetary Policy written by Conglin Xu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in International Economics written by Irina Balteanu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on International Trade and Productivity written by Siwook Lee and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on International Finance written by Keun Yeong Lee and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays Applying Microeconomic Theory to International Trade Issues written by Nils Johan Bjorksten and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on International Business Cycles written by Keita Oikawa and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I present three essays on international business cycles. In the first essay, I document the empirical regularities of international business cycles using the OECD Quarterly Data, and review the existing literatures in this field. By checking the data, I point out 1) net exports-output ratios both in nominal and real terms are countercyclical before 1990 for most of the OECD countries, 2) but the ratios changes their signs from negative to positive after 1990 for some of the countries, and 3) the main reason for the sign changes is that there are changes in the relationship between exports and output: exports were weakly correlated with output or were lagged with output before 1990, but exports become strongly correlated with output and also coincident. In the literature review part, I suggest that many of the properties of international real business cycles can be accounted for by benchmark international real business cycle models, such as Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (1992) and subsequent literatures, but those models cannot account for the coexistence of procyclical and countercyclical net exports. Further, incorporating Bansal and Yaron (2004)-style multi-factor productivity with short-run (trend-stationary transitory) shocks and long-run (difference-stationary growth) shocks are promising in order to account for the new observation about the trade variables. In the second essay, I document that the correlation between net exports and output has not always been negative after 1960. For the G6 countries, most of the countries experienced countercyclical net exports before 1990. However, some of these countries, including Germany and Japan, experienced procyclical net exports after 1990 even though they experienced countercyclical net exports before that. I also show that a simple one-good two-country business cycle model with a multi-factor productivity process can explain the phenomena. A positive transitory shocks to productivity leads to a positive response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect, which causes a international resource flow from Home to Foreign country, is larger than its efficiency effect, which causes an increase in investments in Home country by importing goods form Foreign country. On the other hand, a positive growth shocks to productivity lead to a negative response in net exports because its consumption risk-sharing effect is smaller than its efficiency effect. I estimate the stochastic productivity processes for the G6 countries by using the simulated method of moments, and the simulation results of the model based on the estimated parameters are able to account for the changes in net export dynamics from pre-1990 to post-1990 for Germany and Japan. In the third essay, I document that there are changes in the correlations about trade variables and capital flows for the G7 countries: 1) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of exports with output is a half of that of imports with output for pre-1990, but the former is almost the same value as the latter for post-1990, 2) the magnitude of the contemporaneous correlation of real net exports-output ratio with output is significantly negative for pre-1990, but it becomes almost zero or weakly positive for post-1990. I present two types of two-country two-good real business cycle models, one of which is with complete financial markets and the other one is with incomplete financial markets model in a sense that only risk-free one-period bonds are traded. I also add two types of shocks, transitory and growth shocks, to these two models in the spirit of Aguiar and Gopinath (2007). Firstly, the standard complete financial markets model has a strong correlation of exports with output and a weak correlation of imports with output. Secondly, the standard incomplete financial markets model has a weak correlation of exports with output and a strong correlation of imports with output. Finally, with reasonable changes in model parameter values, both the complete and incomplete market models can account for the two empirical regularities above, but only the incomplete market model can account for the empirical regularities for pre-1990. I evaluate these models in light of cross-country correlation properties based on actual data, especially the cross-country consumption correlation anomaly. I show that the incomplete financial markets model is still better than the complete market model because the cross-country consumption correlation in the incomplete financial markets model is still larger than but closer to the cross-country output correlation compared with the case of the complete financial markets model.
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Markets written by Pawan Jain and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is composed of three essays. The first essay investigates the information content of the limit order book (LOB) on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE), a purely order-driven market, for predicting future stock price volatility. We find that the LOB supply schedule consistently and significantly predicts the future price volatility. But this predictive power of LOB declines during the extreme market wide movements. We also find that buy orders are more informative over future price volatility than sell orders but sell (buy) orders becomes more informative during the extreme market wide down (up) movement days. Finally, we document that predictive power of LOB is short lived and markets are efficient over the longer time horizon. The second essay examines the effect of high frequency trading on market quality, systemic risk and trading strategies. In 2010 the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the largest exchange headquartered outside the US, introduced a new trading platform, Arrowhead, which reduced latency by 99.97% and increased co-located high-frequency trading from zero to 36% of volume. Arrowhead improved market liquidity and reduced volatility, but it also amplified systematic risks factors like quotes to trade ratio, order-flow autocorrelation and cross correlation, and tail risks. Arrowhead also affected trading strategies by increasing trade price predictability and the use of fleeting orders. Cost of immediacy serves as a channel through which reduced latency affects market quality, systematic risks, and trading outcome. The third essay analyzes the links between corporate finance policies and investment clienteles by comparing the cross-sectional variation in the dividend payout policies of companies across 32 countries. Beyond the impact of firm-specific accounting and financial variables, this study investigates how the country level variations: shareholder demand due to demographic variations and consumption needs, agency problems manifested in the extent of minority shareholder protection and business disclosures, and market quality in terms of transparency and liquidity; affect dividend payout policies. We find that firms have generous dividend payout policies when diverse shareholder demands are strong, extents of business disclosures and legal protections are weak, and the market qualities are poor. The empirical evidence supports the presence of strong dividend clienteles in a global setting. .
