Download or read book Three Essays on Empirical Aspects of Credit Markets written by Boris Hofmann and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Empirical Corporate Finance written by Poorya Kabir and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation presents three essays in empirical corporate finance. The essays discuss how financial markets affect the real economy. The first essay studies how a change in credit supply affects firms' decisions to create new products or destroy the existing ones. It provides reduced form causal evidence that a reduction in credit supply reduces product creation substantially. The second essay studies the effect of less product creation on consumer welfare. I find that the effect on consumer welfare is smaller relative to a "naive" interpretation of the reduced form estimate, due to equilibrium responses. The third essay studies how financially constrained firms reduce total investment costs. It provides suggestive evidence that when reducing total investment cost, they do so by lowering the expansion of output capacity and choosing cheaper investment options.

Download or read book Three Essays on Imperfect Credit Markets written by Wing Yu Leung and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 2 is an empirical study about the impact of microcredit (MC) programs on income diversification of the rural households of less developed countries. The impact is identified through propensity score matching that can control for the endogeneity of program participation. Using a World Bank dataset of Bangladeshi household survey, I found that MC programs resulted in up to 12% increase in income diversification. Furthermore, this effect is significant for households with below-median land holdings, suggesting that MC programs might have larger impacts on asset-poor households.

Download or read book Essays on Consumer Credit Markets written by Mark William Jenkins and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2009 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the organization of consumer credit markets using a rich and novel dataset from a large subprime auto lender. Its primary goal is to develop empirical methods for analyzing markets with asymmetric information and to use these methods to better understand the behavior of subprime borrowers and lenders. The first chapter quantifies the importance of adverse selection and moral hazard in the subprime auto loan market and shows how different loan contract terms serve to mitigate these distinct information problems. The second chapter examines the impact of centralized credit scoring on lending outcomes, including the distribution of performance across dealerships within the firm. The third chapter studies borrower repayment behavior and quantifies the impact of ex post moral hazard on interest rates and the costs of default. Collectively, the three chapters provide a better understanding of the functioning of markets for subprime credit in the U.S. They also provide unique empirical evidence on the importance of asymmetric information and the value of screening, monitoring, and contract design in consumer credit markets in general.

Download or read book Three Essays on Internal and External Credit Markets in Post Soviet and Tsarist Russia written by Lisa DeNell Cook and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing written by Thomas A. Jacobs and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Download or read book Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing written by Stephen Szaura and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis comprises three essays in empirical asset pricing. My first essay entitled "Are stock and corporate bond markets integrated? A Big Data Approach" I document the existence a growing Factor Zoo of discovered characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns and generate a significant high minus low portfolio alpha. I determine a higher statistical benchmark, by accounting for those characteristics and factors that have been discovered in published and working papers and find that in cross-sectional regressions and portfolio sorts of over a hundred characteristics and factors, on average 2.4% predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns when adjusting for higher benchmarks. A multivariate horse-race of all characteristics and factors in cross-sectional regressions finds a higher number of corporate bond, rather than stock, characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns when adjusting for higher benchmarks. In addition to the lower number of corporate bond characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of stock returns, my results show that the stock and corporate bond markets are more segmented than previously documented.My second essay is based on a joint working paper entitled "Do Option Implied Measures of Stock Mispricing Find Investment Opportunities or Market Frictions" where we find that existing option implied stock mis-pricing measures, the portfolios identified as being the most mispriced (highest quintile), typically have the highest shorting fee. When those stocks are omitted, the average abnormal returns of the long-short stock portfolios are insignificant or greatly reduced in economic magnitude. We propose a new measure, IPD, using a novel intra-day options trades data set, circumvents this and does not require shorting hard to borrow firms.My third essay is based on a joint working paper entitled "Accounting Transparency and the Implied Volatility Skew". We show theoretically and empirically that firms with higher accounting transparency have an implied volatility smirk that is more sensitive to leverage (vice versa). The more clear the accounting information the more skewed the implied volatility smirk. Our theoretical predictions rely on extending the Duffie and Lando [2001] credit risk model to stock option pricing whereby incomplete accounting information and the risk of bankruptcy together act as an economic source of jump risk for stocks. Empirical tests confirm the theoretical predictions of the model and the model can be solved in closed form solution up to Bivariate Standard Normal Cumulative Distribution Function"--

Download or read book Three Empirical Essays in Financial Economics and International Finance written by Marek Kolar and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Financial Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains three essays in financial economics. In Chapter 1, motivated by the phenomenon that momentum profits vary substantially across different market states, I develop a model to connect market states and momentum profits, and test the model's empirical implications. The model applies the mechanism of overconfidence and self-attribution bias into a setting of multiple risky assets with correlated payoffs. The model generates a set of implications regarding the relation between market states and returns on the winner, loser, and momentum portfolios. These implications are consistent with empirical patterns in the literature and those newly documented in this chapter. Overall, this chapter unifies momentum, negative momentum profits under certain market states, and long-run reversals. In Chapter 2, I examine the strategic role of cash in industries with significant R&D, and the variation of cash holdings and R&D intensity across such industries. In the model, firms compete to innovate but must also finance to bring innovations to the market. The first successful launcher of a new product enjoys an advantage. Outside financing takes time. Cash holdings, R&D intensity, and industry concentration are determined endogenously in equilibrium. Both cash holdings and R&D intensity increase with the winner's advantage and time delay in outside financing, and decrease with entry costs. Empirical patterns of industry cash holdings and R&D intensity support the model predictions. In Chapter 3, I document that the TED spread is a significant negative predictor of value premium. Over 1990 to 2011, a 1% increase in lagged TED spread predicts a 3.3% decrease of CAPM-adjusted value premium, with an R-squared value of 8.2%. I then argue that this finding is consistent with the mechanism that equity expected returns become lower under tighter credit conditions through shareholders' strategic default. I incorporate this mechanism into a simple model of a levered firm and derive more testable hypotheses. Consistent with these hypotheses, I further find that the negative relationship between value premium and lagged TED spread comes mainly from value stocks, stocks with lower credit ratings, stocks with lower cash flows, and stocks with higher shareholders' bargaining power and higher liquidation costs.

Download or read book Three Essays in Entrepreneurial Financial Markets written by Steven H. Wagner and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Theorists have shown how credit enhancement in the generic form of collateral can mitigate market failures in credit markets. None of these models has explained, however, why a guarantee rather than collateral will appear in the equilibrium debt contract. In the first essay, I develop optimal debt contracting models under moral hazard to show that lower transactions costs associated with guarantees make them more efficient than collateral. The guarantee contract is feasible, however, only if the business owner is sufficiently wealthy relative to the loan amount. This result suggests that market failure may occur if a small business owner with a high-return project has inadequate personal wealth to guarantee a loan. The second essay in this dissertation uses data from the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finances to empirically test the predictions of the first essay. I estimate both multinomial logit and ordered probit models to examine the effect of guarantor wealth on the equilibrium enhancement structure for lines of credit. I find that increasing owner wealth results in an increased likelihood that a line of credit will be enhanced with only a personal guarantee and a decreased likelihood that the line of credit will be secured with collateral. I also find that use of the more efficient guarantee is less prevalent when the borrower is located in a non-competitive banking market. Both results are consistent with predictions of the first essay. Relationships between small businesses and financial intermediaries are generally viewed only as mechanisms that arise to mitigate informational asymmetries in credit markets. In the third essay, I use a pooled cross section of the 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2003 Surveys of Small Business Finances to study relationships between small businesses and their primary source of financial services. I find evidence that mechanisms other than mitigation of informational asymmetries in credit transactions influence the structure and benefits associated with maintaining relationships. I also find that the two empirical measures of relationship strength decreased between 1988 and 2003 as the small business credit market was being transformed by bank consolidation, financial deregulation and technological innovation in small business lending."--Abstract from author supplied metadata.

Download or read book Three Essays on Public Money Creation Endogenous Bank Credit Creation and Remaining Empirical Issues written by Hongkil Kim and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines the interconnectedness between money/credit creation and its empirical relevance to macroeconomic variables. It takes the position that the amount of money/credit created for GDP-related transactions inevitably influences the business cycle and inflation while the money/credit extension for non-GDP based transactions (mainly for purchasing financial assets) helps explain movements of interest rates, exchange rates, and an asset bubble/crash. With this approach, the main objectives of this dissertation is to demonstrate that 1) excess bank credit creation/depletion for households' spending is crucial in explaining US inflation, 2) the European Central Bank could successfully contain pressures in struggling sovereign bond markets, relying on its unique power to create its currency (the Euro) and 3) interest rate exogeneity is, if not theoretically impossible, difficult to attain due to market psychology and endogenous credit creation. Having recognized effects of money/credit creation on a macroeconomic environment, the dissertation naturally proceeds to suggest policy proposals that guide credit creation and allocation of credit for productive purposes and assign a proper role for public money creation to counter ebb and flow of private credit creation.

Download or read book Three Essays in Credit Risk written by Mirela Raluca Predescu Vasvari and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays in credit risk. The first essay examines the relationship between credit default swap (CDS) spreads and bond yields as well as the relationship between CDS spreads and credit rating announcements. We test the no-arbitrage theoretical relationship between CDS spreads and bond yields and reach conclusions on the benchmark risk-free rate used by participants in the credit derivatives market. We then carry out a series of tests to explore the extent to which credit rating announcements by Moody's are anticipated by participants in the credit default swap market. The third essay extends the 1976 Black and Cox structural model in order to value correlation-dependent credit derivatives. The proposed model assumes that the correlations between the assets of the obligors are determined by one or more common factors. We first implement a base case model where the asset correlations and recovery rates are constant. We compare our model with the widely used Gaussian copula model of survival time and test how well our model fits market prices of CDO tranches. We then consider two extensions of the base case model. One reflects empirical research showing that default correlations are positively dependent on default rates. The other reflects empirical research showing that recovery rates are negatively dependent on default rates. The second essay investigates the performance of structural models of credit risk along two dimensions. First, I analyze the models' ability to explain CDS spreads. I find that the pricing accuracy of structural models depends heavily on the market information set used in the estimation. Incorporating past time series of CDS spreads in addition to equity and balance sheet information improves the out-of-sample model pricing performance by 50%. Second, I investigate the incremental value of structural models above and beyond CDS spreads in predicting credit ratings migrations. I find evidence that three-month changes in the Distance to Default (DD) have incremental value for anticipating rating downgrades over and above changes in CDS spreads. However, this is not the case for one-month changes in DD.

Download or read book Three Essays in Financial Economics written by Ian Wright and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores various empirical financial phenomena. The first chapter presents evidence suggesting long-term uncertainty may be one reason firm activity has been slow to recover from the Great Recession. I show the current level of uncertainty and expectations of future uncertainty -- that is, the entire term structure of uncertainty -- are negatively correlated with firm investment rates. I present a simple model generating these effects through real options channels. Using equity options to obtain forward-looking estimates of firm and aggregate uncertainty at different horizons, I then show that both the level and slope of the term structure of uncertainty have negative conditional correlations with capital investment rates, consistent with the model. Numerically, a one standard deviation increase in firm (aggregate) uncertainty over the next 30 days correlates with a decrease in firm capital investment equal to 5.1% (1%) of the mean firm investment rate over the next quarter. A one standard deviation increase in firm (aggregate) uncertainty over the next year relative to the next 30 days correlates with a decrease in firm capital investment equal to 3.1% (4.4%) of the mean firm investment rate over the next quarter. I also find the correlation between both the level and slope of the term structure of uncertainty and R\ & D to be positive, supporting the theory that firms invest in growth options in the face of uncertainty. I discuss identification in this context and the particular relevance of my findings for government policy. The second chapter is co-authored with Ana Gomez Lemmen-Meyer and Enrique Seira. We establish four stylized facts about firm financing in private credit markets using a unique, comprehensive database of corporate loans in Mexico. First, firms receive a lower interest rate upon moving from one bank to another. Second, banks' pricing behavior toward their customers exhibits the "lock-in effect": firms' interest rates increase the longer they stay in a lending relationship with the same bank. Third, in a market where asymmetric information between banks has been mitigated, banks appear to compete for the highest quality borrowers and there is little evidence of adverse selection among switching firms. In fact, borrowers that switch banks appear to be of higher average quality than similar borrowers that do not. Fourth, firms that change lenders receive other more favorable lending terms after the change of lenders than they had prior to the change. These take the form of longer maturity loans and less required collateralization, providing positive evidence related to the hypothesis that banks compete for firms not just on interest rates, but also through other lending channels, and that firms switch banks to improve their lending terms. We document how these facts differ by firms' size, and note that the Mexican commercial credit market is really two markets: one for credit to large firms and one for credit to small firms. Finally, we explain how specific policies may have led to the environment giving rise to these stylized facts, discuss the implications of our findings for models of relationship lending and firm banking, and present a simple model rationalizing our results. The final chapter is co-authored with Todd Mitton and Keith Vorkink. In it we explore what may drive financial "bubbles" in speculative markets. Speculative behavior plays a key role in financial markets, but little is known about its causes. We test for neighborhood effects on speculative behavior using lottery sales data, allowing us to disentangle the effects of investor enthusiasm and information transmission. In a sample of 160,000 retailers, per capita lottery sales in a given census block increase by $0.26, on average, when per capita lottery sales increase by $1 in neighboring blocks. Exogenous variation in geographic barriers to interaction between neighbors suggests that the results may be driven largely by social interaction. Our analysis demonstrates a link between social interaction, investor enthusiasm, and speculative behavior that has important implications for financial markets, and may explain why financial bubbles occur.

Download or read book Essays on Information and Beliefs in Credit Markets written by Matthew Botsch and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is a collection of three essays in financial economics, specifically focused on the role of information and beliefs in credit markets. The first chapter establishes that private bank information about customers in primary lending markets exists. The second chapter shows that private information hinders banks' capacities to sell loans on secondary markets, unless the purchaser believes that the bank has committed to remain uninformed. The third chapter explores the welfare consequences of incorrect borrower beliefs about the economic environment on financial product choice. In the first chapter, my co-author and I hypothesize that while lending to a firm, a bank receives signals that allow it to learn and better understand the firm's fundamentals; and that this learning is private; that is, it is information that is not fully reflected in publicly-observable variables. We test this hypothesis using data from the syndicated loan market between 1987 and 2003. We construct a variable that proxies for firm quality and is unobservable by the bank, so it cannot be priced when the firm enters our sample. We show that the loading on this factor in the pricing equation increases with relationship time, hinting that banks are able to learn about firm quality when they are in an established relationship with the firm. In the second chapter, I present new evidence that lemon problems hinder trade on secondary mortgage markets. Using the geographic distance from lenders to borrowers as a proxy for the absence of private bank information, I document a systematic positive link between distance and the mortgage sale rate. Mortgage sale rates are higher when the originating lender is less likely to be informed about the borrower. I further show that the private mortgage sale rate locally depends on lender-borrower distance only above the conforming loan limit, in the illiquid jumbo market where the GSEs are barred from purchasing mortgages. This is consistent with the familiar tradeoff between market liquidity and seller incentives to acquire information. In the third chapter, I investigate how borrowers' incorrect beliefs about future inflation might bias their choice between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. Borrowers who have experienced recent periods of greater inflation pay more for fixed-rate mortgage contracts and pay more in interest, at least over the first six yeras of the mortgage's life. That is, incorrect beliefs about future inflation are welfare-reducing both ex ante and ex post.

Download or read book Essays on Credit Markets in the Developing and Developed Worlds written by Pedro Barreira A. de Aratanha and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation describes the functioning of credit markets in both developed and developing nations, and provides empirical evidence on the relevance of such markets to the real economy. In Chapter 1, I empirically analyze the unintended effects of microlending on children's test scores and time allocation. By making credit available to poor entrepreneurs, microlending has the potential to increase the borrower's opportunity cost of participating in other activities, including household activities and parental involvement. To identify the causal effects, I explore the variation in the expansion of the largest microlending program in Brazil, that occurs over the years and across municipalities. More specifically, I rely on a unique feature that arbitrarily prevented the program from operating beyond certain boundaries within that country. I find that children in different grades are affected differently. Fifth graders underperform in standardized math exams and are less likely to work hard in their homework assignments. Their parents are also less likely to attend parent-teacher meetings at school. Ninth graders spend more time in household chores on a typical school day, but that does not necessarily translate into worse test scores. But otherwise, I do not find any impact on dropout rates in these grades. In Chapter 2, I explore rainfall fluctuations in Brazil to measure the long-term effects of early life conditions on entrepreneurial productivity. I focus on the performance of low-income entrepreneurs, who are also borrowers from the largest microlender in that country. I match newly collected individual-level administrative data from the microlending institution to their clients' year, month, and municipality of birth data on rainfall. Thus, through the date and place of birth, I am able to link the prevailing weather conditions, specifically water scarcity, during the entrepreneur's in utero and early life, to the performance of his business during adulthood. I find that being exposed to a drought is associated with about 2 percent lower revenue. Chapter 3 describes the role of credit markets predicting recessions in the United States. Key financial variables, such as the prices of financial instruments, are commonly associated with expectations of future economic events. During periods of credit market turmoil, financial asset prices are especially informative of linkages between the real and financial sides of the economy: Movements in asset prices can provide early warning signals for such economic downturns. In this chapter, I analyze the predictive content of real stock returns, term spreads and credit spreads. Using dynamic probit models to forecast the real economy fluctuations, I show that credit spreads are an important predictors of future recessions, in particular, of the sharp decline in 2008. I also confirm that term spreads are the primary predictive variables.

Download or read book Three Essays on International Financial Markets written by Ling Feng and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dissertation studies two relevant topics in international financial markets. Why has the bias of equity portfolios towards domestic assets (the "equity home bias" puzzle) remained substantial? To what degree has the financial system as an independent source of uncertainty impacted the real economy, especially regarding the international trade? Chapter 1 proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which shocks to consumption tastes ("taste shocks") are an effective explanation for the equity home bias. The mechanism is that home assets provide a nice insurance property, which is not offered by foreign assets, for home agents to hedge against domestic taste shocks. The model finds that home equity bias positively relies on the persistence and the volatility of domestic taste shocks. Chapter 2 is devoted to presenting empirical evidence on the impacts of taste shocks on international portfolio allocations. The model described in Chapter 1 provides a structure with empirical implications, in that the equilibrium portfolio can be written as the sum of two conditional covariance-variance ratios based on a long-run horizon with all determinants observable. Using VAR estimation results, the empirical evidence suggests that models based on hedging against taste risks are more consistent with data than competing models based on labor income risks. Chapter 3, a joint work with Ching-Yi Lin, studies the impacts of credit crunch on the extensive margin and intensive margin of exports both empirically and theoretically. Panel regressions in the study reveal that a negative financial shock discourages exports by reducing the variety of goods exported as well as the export volume of each individual good. A DSGE model is developed to understand this finding, featuring financial shocks, enforcement constraint and firm entry. As the credit crunch happens, the costs of borrowing to finance firms' exports increase. It reduces individual firms' exports as well as aggregate exports and discourages firms' entry into the export market. The model can also explain the fact that trade dropped more than domestic production and GDP as observed in the most recent financial crisis.

Download or read book Three Essays on Credit Market written by Marco Spallone and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: