Download or read book Three Essays on Economic Behavior Under Uncertainty Theory and Empirical Evidences written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Economic Behavior Under Uncertainty written by Kaïs Dachraoui and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Economic Behavior Under Uncertainty written by Michael Balch and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.

Download or read book Three Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty written by David Aaron Sykes and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Uncertainty and Economic Behavior written by Paul Jones and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation looks at the new and growing field of macroeconomic uncertainty. It consists of three empirical essays on different measures of macroeconomic uncertainty and how uncertainty affects macroeconomic behavior. The first essay uses a new uncertainty index from Baker et al. (2012). We evaluate the time-varying correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation, and output. Estimation results from a multivariate DCC-GARCH model reveal that the sign of the correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation changed from negative to positive during the late 1990s, whereas the correlation between uncertainty and output is consistently negative. In the second essay, we propose domestic uncertainty shocks may serve as a channel through which business cycles are transmitted internationally. To quantify uncertainty, we use two measures from the current literature and estimate structural vector autoregressions to evaluate the effects U.S. uncertainty shocks have on the Japanese and British economies. Our results suggest U.S. uncertainty shocks have international effects consistent with a demand shock in the context of an open-economy IS/LM model with sticky prices. For the final essay we estimate a number of macroeconomic variables as logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) processes with uncertainty as the transition variable. Nonlinear estimation allows us to answer several interesting questions left unanswered by a linear model. For a number of important macroeconomic variables, we show (i) a positive shock to uncertainty has a greater effect than a negative shock, and (ii) the effect of the uncertainty shock is highly dependent on the state of the economy. Hence, the usual linear estimates concerning the consequences of uncertainty are underestimated in circumstances such as the recent financial crisis.

Download or read book Three Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Essays on economic behavior under uncertainty written by M. Balch and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book ESSAYS ON ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR UNDER UNCERTAINTY SELECTED PAPERS FROM A CONFERENCE NSF NBER CONFERENCE ON DECISION RULES AND UNCERTAINTY NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Uncertainty and Conflict written by Rolando Moises Guzman-Garcia and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Economic Behavior and Uncertainty written by M. S. Balch and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Economic Theory written by Giacomo Lanzani and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first chapter of this thesis considers an agent who posits a set of probabilistic models for the payoff-relevant outcomes. The agent has a prior over this set but fears the actual model is omitted and hedges against this possibility. The concern for misspecification is endogenous: If a model explains the previous observations well, the concern attenuates. We show that different static preferences under uncertainty (subjective expected utility, maxmin, robust control) arise in the long run, depending on how quickly the agent becomes unsatisfied with unexplained evidence and whether they are misspecified. The misspecification concern's endogeneity naturally induces behavior cycles, and we characterize the limit action frequency. This model is consistent with the empirical evidence on monetary policy cycles and choices in the face of complex tax schedules. Finally, we axiomatize in terms of observable choices this decision criterion and how quickly the agent adjusts their misspecification concern. The second chapter offers an axiomatization of risk models where the choices of the decision maker are correlation sensitive. By extending the techniques of conjoint measurement to the nondeterministic case, we show that transitivity is the vN-M axiom that has to be relaxed to allow for these richer patterns of behavior. To illustrate the advantages of our modeling choice, we provide a simple axiomatization for the salience theory model within our general framework. This approach leads to a clear comparison to popular preexisting models, such as regret and reference dependence, and lets us single out the ordering property as the feature that brings salience theory outside the prospect theory realm. This chapter is published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol 137. The third chapter proposes a model of non-Bayesian social learning in networks that accounts for heuristics and biases in opinion aggregation. The updating rules are represented by nonlinear opinion aggregators from which we extract two extreme networks capturing strong and weak links. We provide graph-theoretic conditions on these networks that characterize opinions' convergence, consensus formation, and efficient or biased information aggregation. Under these updating rules, agents may ignore some of their neighbors' opinions, reducing the number of effective connections and inducing long-run disagreement for finite populations. For the wisdom of the crowd in large populations, we highlight a trade-off between how connected the society is and the nonlinearity of the opinion aggregator. Our framework bridges several models and phenomena in the non-Bayesian social learning literature, thereby providing a unifying approach to the field. This chapter is the result of joint work with Simone Cerreia-Vioglio and Roberto Corrao. JEL codes: D9

Download or read book Manager Attention Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market written by Dingqian Liu and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis has three essays that study the intersections of macroeconomics, finance, and text analysis. The topics include executives' attention and financial decisions, economic policy uncertainty and stock market forecasting, and the stock market performance in the time of the Covid-19 pandemic. The essays hope to provide unique measurements of attention and uncertainty, empirical evidence, and theories to understand the connections and differences between classic theories and agents' behavior in actual economic activities. The first essay is my job market paper. I examine the attention of executive managers and their financing behavior, focusing on the information acquisition process. Corporations are sensitive to both macroeconomic and firm-specific challenges. Executives must choose overall attention capacity and divide finite attention between these topics. By using natural language processing and quarterly earnings call transcripts, I assess the information content of this dialog. The attention capacity quantifies the effective information used to make borrowing decisions, consisting of information processing macro and firm-specific issues. The attention allocation measures the ratio of attention paid to macroeconomics. Executives make two critical decisions during the information acquiring process. First, executives decide the overall attention capacity, determined by the general uncertainty. Second, executives decide the optimal attention allocated between macro and firm-specific topics. In the rise of uncertainty from either subject, executives' attention capacity increases (scale effect) and assign greater awareness to this topic (substitution effect). I show that the substitution effect is higher than the scale effect. Using an optimal static capital structure model with endogenous information choice, I demonstrate that an executive can tolerate a higher leverage rate when actively acquiring information. Thus, the information decision process is crucial to understanding the recent rising leverage phenomenon.The second essay examines the relationship between the stock market performance and the economic activities in the time of Covid-19. Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from February 17 to March 12, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped 40 percent. From March 23 to April 9, stocks recovered half their losses, and mobility decreased further. From April 9 to late May, both stocks and mobility rose modestly. This dynamic plays out across the 35 countries in our sample, with notable departures in China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The size of the global stock market crash in reaction to the pandemic is many times larger than a standard asset-pricing model implies. Looking more closely at the world's two largest economies, the pandemic had greater effects on stock market levels and volatilities in the U.S. than in China, even before it became evident that early U.S. containment efforts would flounder. Newspaper-based narrative evidence confirms the dominant - and historically unprecedented - the role of pandemic-related developments in the stock market behavior of both countries. The third essay tests the prediction power of the mainland China Economic Policy Uncertainty in forecasting the Chinese stock market. Rational asset pricing theory indicates that the fluctuations of the real economy have a significant impact on the stock market. The Chinese stock market is highly regulated and sensitive to regulations and market policies uncertainty. Using an efficient Dynamic Model Averaging (eDMA) model, this paper investigates how well the newspaper-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index can predict the returns of the Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. Empirical evidence shows that EPU mutes the impact of monetary policy as a predictor. Also, eDMA significantly improves the forecasting performance compared to other forecasting methodologies.

Download or read book Essays on Economic Behavior Under Uncertainty written by Michael Balch and published by North-Holland. This book was released on 1974 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods in Behavioural Economics written by Morris Altman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-03-02 with total page 533 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive Handbook addresses a wide variety of methodological approaches adopted and developed by behavioural economists, exploring the implications of such innovations for analysis and policy.

Download or read book Three Essays in Intertemporal Choice written by John Keith Horowitz and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: