Download or read book Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Download or read book Analysis Analysis Practices and Implications for Modeling and Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Download or read book Portfolio analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
Download or read book U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.
Download or read book Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision Support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005-09-14 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Download or read book Philosophy East West written by Oren Ergas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-26 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Philosophy East/West showcases new scholarship in the philosophy of education and contemplative studies, paying particular attention to the intersection of mindfulness, evidence-based science, and wisdom traditions. Moves beyond simplistic explanations of “Eastern” and “Western” to explore the complexity and diversity of various wisdom traditions Investigates the effect of mindfulness-based curricular interventions on current educational theory and practice Uses insights from important Western philosophers—including Heidegger, Levinas, and Foucault—to situate contemplative practice within contemporary educational theory Emphasizes the importance of transcultural and intercultural approaches in the philosophy of education
Download or read book Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning written by Frank A. Camm and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2009 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a risk-management process would help senior Air Force leaders to (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about risk to key audiences.
Download or read book Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector written by Ognyan Kounchev and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Security environment is characterized by deep uncertainty. Threats are being posed not only by adversary (political) forces but may also come from natural challenges. This title reflects the initial state of a dialogue between specialists in security and specialists in mathematics, computer and information sciences on security topics.
Download or read book History of operations research in the United States Army written by Charles R. Shrader and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book History of operations research in the United States Army V 3 1973 1995 written by and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science X written by Dawn A. Trevisani and published by SPIE-International Society for Optical Engineering. This book was released on 2006 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proceedings of SPIE present the original research papers presented at SPIE conferences and other high-quality conferences in the broad-ranging fields of optics and photonics. These books provide prompt access to the latest innovations in research and technology in their respective fields. Proceedings of SPIE are among the most cited references in patent literature.
Download or read book Methodology Implementation and Applications of Decision Support Systems written by A. Lewandowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-04 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book aims at giving the methodological framework for design decision support systems. Several applications are also described in detail, ranging from environment control, production planning, transportation planning. The book is of special interest to operations researchers, environment specialists, production planners, and transportation engineers.
Download or read book Society and Structures written by R Ragaini and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003-08-12 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings volume contains presentations, group discussions and reports on terrorism-related issues, such as: motivations; tools and countermeasures; worldwide stability; risk analysis. Contents:Opening Session (A Zichichi)Motivations (A Kamal, D W Hanson, L Alurralde, R Wilson, W Müller-Seedorf, F Mehr, I Karawan, G M Mirdal, A Peyraube, J Díez-Nicolás, K Talattof & W Fulkerson)Worldwide Stability (T Taylor, J Savy, W E Kastenberg, E S Vergino & M Moodie)Tools and Countermeasures (R A Mason, R G Manley, C R Penn, S Leivesley, A E Smithson & J R Westby)Permament Monitoring Panel Reports (T Taylor)Motivations Working Group Report (A Kamal, M Sánchez-Sorondo & F Waelbroek)Tools and Countermeasures Working Group Report (R A Mason & K K Rebane)Worldwide Stability Working Group Report (T Taylor) Readership: Scientists, academics, psychologists, sociologists, political analysts, historians, government officials. Keywords:Cultural Emergency;Worldwide Stability;Motivations of Terrorism;Tools and Countermeasures Against Terrorism;Risk Analysis and Terrorism
Download or read book International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies written by Richard C. Ragaini and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings volume contains presentations, group discussions and reports on terrorism-related issues, such as: motivations; tools and countermeasures; worldwide stability; risk analysis.
Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.
Download or read book Evaluation of Human Work written by John R. Wilson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-04-16 with total page 1031 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by experts with real-world experience in applying ergonomics methodology in a range of contexts, Evaluation of Human Work, Fourth Edition explores ergonomics and human factors from a "doing it" perspective. More than a cookbook of ergonomics methods, the book encourages students to think about which methods they should apply, when, and why.
Download or read book Design of a Framework to Facilitate Decisions Using Information Fusion written by Tamer M. Abo Neama and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information fusion is an advanced research area which can assist decision makers in enhancing their decisions. This paper aims at designing a new multi-layer framework that can support the process of performing decisions from the obtained beliefs using information fusion. Since it is not an easy task to cross the gap between computed beliefs of certain hypothesis and decisions, the proposed framework consists of the following layers in order to provide a suitable architecture.
