Download or read book The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U S Recessions written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yield curve?specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill?is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
Download or read book The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U S Recessions written by Arturo Estrella and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yield curveőspecifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury billőis a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
Download or read book Yield Curve as a Predictor of a Recession Evidence from the US Economy written by Michel Guirguis and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this article, we are testing the effects of an inverted Yield curve, as a result of the relationship between the short and long-term interest rates of the US Treasury with constant maturities. Our aim is to illustrate and spot cycles that created the US recession in 2008 based on Estrella and Mishkin, (1996), spread definition. In our model, the recession probability is calculated by using a 99% confidence level of the standard normal cumulative distribution function. Then, we will apply a probit model to measure the relationship between a binary variable strength such as prediction of a recession over a number of other variables such as the logarithmic monthly returns of the Federal funds effective rates, and the logarithmic monthly returns of the seasonally adjusted money supply, (M2). The data that we have used are monthly returns starting from 01/10/1993 to 01/01/2013, which total to 231 observations. The data was obtained from the Federal Reserve Statistical Release Department and the symbols of the series are H.6, and H.15.
Download or read book Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of United States Recessions written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cf.: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01173.v1.
Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.
Download or read book The Yield Curve s Predictive Power on U S Recessions written by John William Lahman and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A negative-sloped Treasury curve is often cited in financial news articles and by Federal Reserve economists as a predictor of recessions. This report reviews previously published research examining the reliability of yield curves predicting recessions. Findings show that the yield curve inverts two or more quarters before recessions, with short-term interest rates rising above long-term interest rates. Probit regression has proven a reliable method for generating estimated probabilities of future recessions that, in turn, are useful for both monetary policy and asset allocation decision-making.
Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using the U S Treasury Yield Curve to Predict S P 500 Returns and U S Recessions written by Theodore Gregory Hanks and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions written by Jonathan H. Wright and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book US Inverted Yield Curve written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inverted yield curve is feared by many investors, bankers and economists, as it is a signal that a recession in the global economy might soon take place. On the other hand, some argue that it is “false advertising” as it is only indicating the movements of long-term bond yields against short-term bond yields and little more. However, when these indicators start to act abnormally, this is a strong message that something dramatic is happening in the economy. The inverted yield curve and the term spread, the difference between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates, have been indicators of slowdowns in the US economy for over 60 years, and in all instances except one, it correctly signaled that recession was coming.
Download or read book The Predictive Power of Yield Curve in Forecasting U S Recessions written by Hardeep Bamara and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the last recession in 2001, the U.S. economy has continued to grow; yet speculation of a recession has surfaced on the basis of the yield curve flattening. Yield curve inversion has been strongly associated with U.S. recessions over the last forty-six years. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield curve, the index of leading indicators, monetary growth and stock returns in forecasting U.S. recessions. A probit model is used to generate recession probability forecasts three, six, nine and twelve months forward. Empirical results show that the yield curve embodies the highest degree of explanatory power beyond a three-month forecast horizon. Results for the last two recessions are analyzed as well as forecasts going forward into 2006. As a final observation, an asset allocation trading strategy is tested out-of-sample.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book The Yield Curve written by Edward Yardeni and published by YRI Books. This book was released on 2019-07-02 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Download or read book How Charts Work written by Alan Smith and published by Pearson UK. This book was released on 2022-09-13 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How Charts Work brings the secrets of effective data visualisation in a way that will help you bring data alive. Charts, graphs and tables are essential devices in business, but all too often they present information poorly. This book will help you: Feel confident understanding different types of charts, graphs and tables – and how to read them Recognise the true story behind the data presented and what the information really shows Know the principles and rules of how best to represent information so you can create your own information-driven (and beautiful) visuals Design visuals that people engage with, understand and act upon Don’t value design over information – present data persuasively. Find the FT Chart Doctor’s columns here - https://www.ft.com/chart-doctor
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Download or read book Finance and Economics Discussion Series written by Jonathan H Wright and published by Scholar's Choice. This book was released on 2015-02-16 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
