Download or read book The Variation in the Structure of Risks Driving the Yield Curve written by He Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents the newly developed weight-parameterized portfolio policy to seek for an optimal portfolio of different bonds and investigates the predictability of macroeconomic factors for bond returns. The weight of each bond in the portfolio is directly modeled as a function of bonds' maturities and sensitivities to macroeconomic factors. A rolling regression approach is applied to obtain the sensitivities as characteristics of each bond which lead to the deviation from benchmark weight. Two forms of benchmark portfolio are discussed and compared. This article finds that the active optimal portfolio over-performs benchmark and the macroeconomic variables do affect the bond weight in optimal portfolio. Out-of-sample experiment shows little robustness in bond portfolio. Direct estimation with different risk aversion reveals investors with higher risk aversion tend to hold long-term bond.

Download or read book Riding the Yield Curve Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment written by Mr.Ralph Chami and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.

Download or read book Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short Run and Long Run Risks written by Olesya V. Grishchenko and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bond returns are time-varying and predictable. What economic forces drive this variation? To answer this long-standing question, we propose a consumption-based model with recursive preferences, long-run risks, and inflation non-neutrality. Our model offers two important insights. First, our model matches well the post-1990 nominal upward-sloping U.S. Treasury yield curve. Second, consistent with our model's implication, variance risk premium based on the U.S. interest rate derivatives data emerges as a strong predictor for short-horizon Treasury excess returns, above and beyond the predictive power of other popular factors. In the model equilibrium, the variance risk premium is related to the short-run risks in the economy, while standard forward-rate-based factors are associated with long-run risks in the economy.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Download or read book Yield Curve Analysis written by Livingston G. Douglas and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1988 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With their increasing complexity, the fixed-income markets have made greater demands upon their participants. To be successful -- in this era of heightened volatility, especially -- requires a firm foundation in the precepts underlying the behavior of fixed-income investments. This book answers that need by presenting a comprehensive analysis of the two primary concepts: risk and return. Its four major sections develop and apply these concepts clearly and progressively, with outline and summary aids to enhance understanding and ample illustrations to reinforce the explanations.

Download or read book What Is Driving the Rise in Advanced Economy Bond Yields written by Rohit Goel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-29 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The nominal bond yields for advanced economies rose sharply during the first quarter of the year. This note analyzes the drivers of this increase across the jurisdictions and tenors of the yield curve. A key investor focus, in particular, has been the rise in the nominal bond yields in the United States, which has had notable global financial stability spillovers. The analysis indicates that the rise in inflation expectations is the primary driver of the rise in US nominal bond yields over the near term, whereas, the rise in real yields has been the major contributor to the rise in longer-term yields. The change in term premiums has also played a key role in driving both the longer-term inflation breakeven and real yields. Considering other major advanced economies, while inflation expectations have risen across the board in the near term, change in real yields appear more pertinent a driver for shifts in longer-term yields.

Download or read book Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility written by Anna Cieslak and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We decompose conditional volatilities of US Treasury yields into components due to short-rate expectations and term premia. To this end, we propose a novel no-arbitrage model which we estimate with extensive second-moment data. Short-rate expectations become more volatile than premia before recessions and during asset market distress. The correlation between shocks to premia and expectations is close to zero on average and varies with stance of monetary policy. While Treasuries are nearly unexposed to variance shocks, investors pay a large premium for hedging variance risk with derivatives. We illustrate the distinct dynamics of those yield volatility components during and after the financial crisis.

Download or read book A Risk Professionals Survival Guide written by Clifford Rossi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-11-03 with total page 573 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balanced, practical risk management for post – financial crisis institutions A Risk Professional's Survival Guide fills a critical gap left by existing risk management texts. Instead of focusing only on quantitative risk analysis or only on institutional risk management, this book takes a comprehensive approach. The disasters of the recent financial crisis taught us that managing risk is both an art and a science, and it is critical for practitioners to understand how individual risks are integrated at the enterprise level. This book is the only resource of its kind to introduce all of the key risk management concepts in a cohesive case study spanning each chapter. A hypothetical bank drawn from elements of several real world institutions serves as a backdrop for topics from credit risk and operational risk to understanding big-picture risk exposure. You will be able to see exactly how each rigorous concept is applied in actual risk management contexts. This book includes: Supplemental Excel-based Visual Basic (VBA) modules, so you can interact directly with risk models Clear explanations of the importance of risk management in preventing financial disasters Real world examples and lessons learned from past crises Risk policies, infrastructure, and activities that balance limited quantitative models This book provides the element of hands-on application necessary to put enterprise risk management into effective practice. The very best risk managers rely on a balanced approach that leverages every aspect of financial operations for an integrative risk management strategy. With this book, you can identify and control risk at an expert level.

Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Download or read book Determinants of the Yield Curve A Model for the Relationship between Risk and Yield written by Douglas Carr and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model explaining the level and structure of bond yields and the yield curve based upon three principles. 1) Across different maturities along the yield curve, bond yields change with the proportional change in the risk or potential volatility of the bonds. 2) The incremental yield required as a bond's volatility increases by an infinitesimal amount is determined by the riskless interest rate. 3) The relationship between the yield of a bond and the riskless interest rate is governed by expectations of future riskless interest rates over the term of the bond.The model explains the entire spread of the yield curve based upon expectations of future short-term riskless interest rates and upon the potential volatility of default-free bonds. Expected future riskless rates are derived from market bond yields by the model. These expectations are unbiased predictors of actual future riskless interest rates and are somewhat more accurate than a commercial consensus forecast. Spreads between expected future riskless rates for three month and ten year maturities correlate more highly with future changes in real GDP than do the spreads between the three month and ten year yields themselves.The model produces weights so that paired barbell maturities more closely match a bullet maturity's yield than if the barbell maturities were weighted by duration, a widely used measure of potential volatility. Differences between the bullet and weighted barbell yields correlate significantly with future changes in yields. The model thus facilitates evaluation of current pricing and future expectations in the bond market.

Download or read book The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

Download or read book Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve written by Moorad Choudhry and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-04-15 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understand and interpret the global debt capital markets Now in a completely updated and expanded edition, this is a technical guide to the yield curve, a key indicator of the global capital markets and the understanding and accurate prediction of which is critical to all market participants. Being able to accurately and timely predict the shape and direction of the curve permits practitioners to consistently outperform the market. Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve, 2nd Edition describes what the yield curve is, explains what it tells participants, outlines the significance of certain shapes that the curve assumes and, most importantly, demonstrates what factors drive it and how it is modelled and used. Covers the FTP curve, the multi-currency curve, CSA, OIS-Libor and 3-curve models Gets you up to speed on the secured curve Describes application of theoretical versus market curve relative value trading Explains the concept of the risk-free rate Accessible demonstration of curve interpolation best-practice using cubic spline, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson 94 models This advanced text is essential reading for traders, asset managers, bankers and financial analysts, as well as graduate students in banking and finance.

Download or read book CFA Navigator Level 2 Exam Navigator Study Guide written by BPP Learning Media and published by BPP Learning Media. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CFA Navigator - Level 2 Exam Navigator Study Guide

Download or read book Macro Factors and the Yield Curve written by Peyron Law and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Managing Credit Risk written by John B. Caouette and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-11-03 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first full analysis of the latest advances in managing credit risk. "Against a backdrop of radical industry evolution, the authors of Managing Credit Risk: The Next Great Financial Challenge provide a concise and practical overview of these dramatic market and technical developments in a book which is destined to become a standard reference in the field." -Thomas C. Wilson, Partner, McKinsey & Company, Inc. "Managing Credit Risk is an outstanding intellectual achievement. The authors have provided investors a comprehensive view of the state of credit analysis at the end of the millennium." -Martin S. Fridson, Financial Analysts Journal. "This book provides a comprehensive review of credit risk management that should be compulsory reading for not only those who are responsible for such risk but also for financial analysts and investors. An important addition to a significant but neglected subject." -B.J. Ranson, Senior Vice-President, Portfolio Management, Bank of Montreal. The phenomenal growth of the credit markets has spawned a powerful array of new instruments for managing credit risk, but until now there has been no single source of information and commentary on them. In Managing Credit Risk, three highly regarded professionals in the field have-for the first time-gathered state-of-the-art information on the tools, techniques, and vehicles available today for managing credit risk. Throughout the book they emphasize the actual practice of managing credit risk, and draw on the experience of leading experts who have successfully implemented credit risk solutions. Starting with a lucid analysis of recent sweeping changes in the U.S. and global financial markets, this comprehensive resource documents the credit explosion and its remarkable opportunities-as well as its potentially devastating dangers. Analyzing the problems that have occurred during its growth period-S&L failures, business failures, bond and loan defaults, derivatives debacles-and the solutions that have enabled the credit market to continue expanding, Managing Credit Risk examines the major players and institutional settings for credit risk, including banks, insurance companies, pension funds, exchanges, clearinghouses, and rating agencies. By carefully delineating the different perspectives of each of these groups with respect to credit risk, this unique resource offers a comprehensive guide to the rapidly changing marketplace for credit products. Managing Credit Risk describes all the major credit risk management tools with regard to their strengths and weaknesses, their fitness to specific financial situations, and their effectiveness. The instruments covered in each of these detailed sections include: credit risk models based on accounting data and market values; models based on stock price; consumer finance models; models for small business; models for real estate, emerging market corporations, and financial institutions; country risk models; and more. There is an important analysis of default results on corporate bonds and loans, and credit rating migration. In all cases, the authors emphasize that success will go to those firms that employ the right tools and create the right kind of risk culture within their organizations. A strong concluding chapter integrates emerging trends in the financial markets with the new methods in the context of the overall credit environment. Concise, authoritative, and lucidly written, Managing Credit Risk is essential reading for bankers, regulators, and financial market professionals who face the great new challenges-and promising rewards-of credit risk management.

Download or read book Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 781 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, well-known expert Riccardo Rebonato provides the theoretical foundations (no-arbitrage, convexity, expectations, risk premia) needed for the affine modeling of the government bond markets. He presents and critically discusses the wealth of empirical findings that have appeared in the literature of the last decade, and introduces the 'structural' models that are used by central banks, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, academics, and advanced practitioners to model the yield curve, to answer policy questions, to estimate the magnitude of the risk premium, to gauge market expectations, and to assess investment opportunities. Rebonato weaves precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.