Download or read book An Assessment of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short range Terminal Weather Forecasting written by Donald A. Chisholm and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The products judged most useful in preparing short-range terminal forecasts included: (1) conventional geographic data displays presented simultaneously as four quadrant panels on one screen, (2) regional scale surface analyses, plots and data listings of basic variables, (3) satellite-based trajectory technique, (4) tailored plot displays such as the station-model time-series display, and (5) mapped displays of forecast guidance derived from the NMC LFM model. The importance of half-hourly visible and IR imagery from GOES in short-range terminal forecasting was confirmed in this experiment. The forecasters relied more heavily on it to prepare their forecasts than any other data source. The manipulation of digital imagery in a computer-based interactive graphics system through time-series looping, color enhancements, and overlaying conventional plots and analyses on it, provides a wealth of qualitative and quantitative guidance for fore- casting. The numerical forecasts yielded superior rmses compared to persistence for all forecast intervals and for each forecast element. Probability forecasts were substantially better than persistence probability and sample climatology. GEM showed skill relative to persistence probability but yielded larger rmses did persistence in its numerical form. MOS guidance was found to be useful for forecast intervals of 4 hr or longer.
Download or read book An Appraisal of the Short range Forecast Problem Using Power Spectra written by H. Stuart Muench and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Skill-scores, relative to climatology, for some parameters such as ceiling/visibility and precipitation are much lower than others, such as minimum temperature and pressure gradients. Also, the skill-scores have been improving appreciably faster for forecasts of 36 h (and more) than for forecasts of 24 h (and less). At the shortest ranges, less than 12 h, skill-scores relative to persistence are rather low, with values of 0.0 to 0.5 as typical. Power spectra for wind, temperature, dew point, rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient (inversely related to visibility) were computed for periods of 10 min to 20 days, using fall season data from northeast United States. Analyses of these spectra indicate some of the problems in forecasting. Wind, temperature, and dew point spectra all had considerably more power at periods longer than 24 h than did rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient, which relates to differences in forecast skill-scores. The greatest contribution to change for 2- to 8-h forecasts comes from disturbances with periods of about 8 to 32 h. Disturbances with periods shorter than about 24 h are purposedly filtered from current operational numerical models, in order to improve performance over longer ranges. The disturbances filtered out may be relatively unimportant to wind and temperature forecasts but quiet important for cloud and precipitation forecasts. Disturbances with periods less than about 2 h cannot be adequately resolved temporally or spatially using current weather data, yet these disturbances have sufficient amplitude to contribute noise in the analyses of longer period disturbances.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monthly Catalogue United States Public Documents written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1014 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 956 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accessions List written by United States. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accessions List written by Assessment and Information Services Center (U.S.). Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accessions List written by Environmental Science Information Center. Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Use of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short range Terminal Weather Forecasting written by Donald A. Chisholm and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The products judged most useful in preparing short-range terminal forecasts included (1) a station model time series display, (2) conventional geographic data displays presented simultaneously as four quadrant panels guidance on one screen, (3) mesoscale surface objective analyses, and (4) a forecast guidance prodecure based on 2-D upper-air trajectories and sensible weather algorithms based on imagery from the GOES satellite. The importance of half-hourly visible and IR imagery from the GOES satellite in short-range terminal forecasting was confirmed in this experiment. The participating forecasters relied more heavily on it to prepare their forecasts than any other source. The manipulation of digital imagery in a computer-based interactive graphic system through time-series looping, color enhancements, and overlaying conventional plots and analyses on it, provides a wealth of qualitative and quantitative guidance for forecasting. The numerical forecasts yielded superior rms errors compared to persistence at all forecast intervals except 1 h. At 4 h, the improvement over persistence ranged from about 21 percent for wind forecasts to about 34 percent for total cloud amount, while the 6-h quantitative precipitation forecasts yielded a 39 percent improvement.
Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Minding the Weather written by Robert R. Hoffman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-08-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science. This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
Download or read book Aviation Weather Forecasts Based on Advection written by H. Stuart Muench and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous experiments had shown that upper-level wind flows could be used to advect surface weather parameters to produce short-range (0-15 hours) forecasts. However, to achieve scores better than persistence, allowance had to be made for stationary weather patterns and also for diurnal changes in weather conditions. Two new forecast experiments were prepared and carried out, using data from 12 cases during March 1983. First, data were edited and adjusted to reduce effects of local conditions (altitude, surface roughness), and then were advected. Finally, the adjustment was removed. The forecasts using a 500 mb space-averaged flow with modified initial conditions produced improved advection forecasts, with some parameters better than persistence and MOS (Model Output Statistics) for 2-7 hours. In the second experiment, an improved objective-analysis procedure was introduced, one based on the 'Barnes' approach, which uses one-half degree (about 45 km) resolution and previous analysis as a first guess. (Prior analyses were 1 degree, single pass, 'Cressman'-type analyses.) These improved analyses resulted in a somewhat better score for 1-3 hours (using a 'change-advection' technique), but were slightly worse at longer periods. Apparently, the small-scale patterns recovered by the improved analyses were largely either short-lived or stationary. These conditions would not lead to better advection forecasts. Further examination revealed that those parameters most difficult to resolve in the objective analyses (visibility, ceiling, and wind speed) also had the lowest forecast skill scores for persistence. Keywords: Aviation forecasting; Meteorology; Mesoscale analysis and forecasting.
Download or read book 10th Conference on Weather Forecasting and Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Government Reports Annual Index Keyword A L written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1092 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Government reports annual index written by and published by . This book was released on 199? with total page 1082 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Proceedings Resource Technology 90 written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 874 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Proceedings Resource Technology 90 written by American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing and published by American Society for Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing. This book was released on 1991 with total page 870 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
