Download or read book The Upside of Uncertainty written by Nathan Furr and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2022-07-19 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A science-backed guide for navigating and thriving through uncertainty—based on interviews and insights from world-renowned leaders, innovators, entrepreneurs, artists, and creatives. Whether you're searching for courage to start a new project, change careers, launch a business, develop an idea, or reinvent yourself after a disappointment or life change, you will face uncertainty—that ambiguous and uncomfortable state that often makes us feel confused, anxious, and afraid to act. Though these moments are difficult, they offer opportunities for personal growth, innovation, and creativity. In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a sweeping guide to embracing uncertainty and transforming it into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide dozens of tools—including mental models, techniques, and reflections—for seeing the upside of uncertainty, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to new possibilities. In our fast-paced, ever-changing world, uncertainty is on the rise. We face it every day. But few of us have been taught the techniques to navigate it well. The Upside of Uncertainty provides the inspiration, tools, and strategies you need to thrive through the inevitable plot twists in your life and career.
Download or read book The Upside of Down written by Bruce Whitfield and published by Pan Macmillan South africa. This book was released on 2021-01-18 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New edition with updated content In a world shaped by Covid-19 and characterised by fake news, manipulated feeds of information and divisive social-media agendas, it’s easy to believe that our time is the most challenging in human history. It’s just not true. It is a time of extraordinary opportunity. But only if you have the right mindset and attitude. Fear of the future breeds inaction and leads to strategic paralysis. Problem-solvers thrive in chaotic and uncertain times because they act to change their future. Winners recognise that in a world of growing uncertainty, you need to resort to actions on things you can control. A robust mindset is the one common characteristic Bruce Whitfield has identified in two decades of interrogating how South Africa’s billionaires and start-up mavericks think differently. They don’t ignore risk or hope that problems will go away. They constantly measure, manage, consider and weigh up opportunities in a tumultuous sea of uncertainty and find ways around obstacles. If, as Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller suggests, the stories we tell affect economic outcomes, then we need to tell different stories amidst the noise and haste of a rapidly evolving world.
Download or read book Summary of Nathan Furr s The Upside of Uncertainty written by Everest Media, and published by Everest Media LLC. This book was released on 2022-08-14T23:00:00Z with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The upside of uncertainty is the origin of possibility. It’s simple: every person, process, and product has passed through countless uncertainties before arriving at the current known iteration. When we focus on the possibility from the outset, calmly recognizing that uncertainty will attend every possibility, we team up with the upside of uncertainty. #2 The Reframe tools are largely cognitive in nature, and they are about how you make sense of the world. They have a good deal of overlap with Sustain, the other tool kit on the north-south thinking axis of the first-aid cross. #3 We are wired to fear uncertainty, and we will even lie to keep what we have if we are faced with a loss. This explains why we prefer certain gains over other similar gains. #4 We can use the same framing effect to reframe uncertainty as a potential gain, instead of a loss, which will change how we respond to it. We must first consider ourselves as having enough courage to stand at the edge of opportunity.
Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Download or read book Great by Choice written by Jim Collins and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten years after the worldwide bestseller Good to Great, Jim Collins returns withanother groundbreaking work, this time to ask: why do some companies thrive inuncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? Based on nine years of research,buttressed by rigorous analysis and infused with engaging stories, Collins andhis colleague Morten Hansen enumerate the principles for building a truly greatenterprise in unpredictable, tumultuous and fast-moving times. This book isclassic Collins: contrarian, data-driven and uplifting.
Download or read book Risk Intelligence written by Dylan Evans and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author of Placebo: The Belief Effect draws on real-life examples and detailed research findings to counsel readers on how to make appropriate decisions based on accurate assessments of risk, revealing common flaws in human thinking processes that compromise personal judgment. 40,000 first printing.
Download or read book Embracing Uncertainty written by Susan Jeffers, Ph.D. and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2007-04-01 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Author of Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway From the multi-million bestselling author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway comes a powerful and healing book designed to offer a safety net in a world of never-ending change. It may be one of the most comforting and life-affirming books you will ever read. With her invaluable insights and exercises, Susan Jeffers gives you the tools you need to deal with all the uncertainty in your life with a sense of peace and possibility. You will learn: - Forty-two exercises to help make your life an exciting adventure instead of a continuous worry - How to lighten up and put problems into a life-affirming perspective - The amazing power of the word "maybe" - And much more. You will discover that there is a wondrous, joyous, and abundant life that can exist in the presence of uncertainty. The question is, "What do you need to do to reach this wonderful state?" And the answers abound in Embracing Uncertainty..
Download or read book The Opposite of Certainty written by Janine Urbaniak Reid and published by Thomas Nelson. This book was released on 2020-05-12 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Brilliant, rich...breathtakingly honest and sometimes very funny.” —Anne Lamott “I loved this book.” —Glennon Doyle “Extraordinary.” —Caroline Leavitt “Observant and warm...the finest company.”—Kelly Corrigan “A beautiful sucker punch, like life.“ —Ron Fournier “Subtle, powerful, and hypnotic...” — Martin Cruz Smith What happens when we can no longer pretend that the ground underfoot is bedrock and the sky above predictable? All Janine Urbaniak Reid ever wanted was for everyone she loved to be okay so she might relax and maybe be happy. Her life strategy was simple: do everything right. This included trying to be the perfect mother to her three kids so they would never experience the kind of pain she pretended not to feel growing up. What she didn’t expect was the chaos of an out-of-control life that begins when her young son’s hand begins to shake. The Opposite of Certainty is the story of Janine’s reluctant journey beyond easy answers and platitudes. She searches for a source of strength bigger than her circumstances, only to have her circumstances become even thornier with her own crisis. Drawn deeply and against her will into herself, and into the eternal questions we all ask, she discovers hidden reserves of strength, humor, and a no-matter-what faith that looks nothing like she thought it would. Beautifully written and deeply hopeful, Janine shows us how we can come through impossible times transformed and yet more ourselves than we’ve ever allowed ourselves to be.
Download or read book The Upside of Down written by Thomas Homer-Dixon and published by Vintage Canada. This book was released on 2010-02-05 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the #1 bestselling and Governor General’s Literary Award-winning The Ingenuity Gap – an essential addition to the bookshelf of every thinking person with a stake in our world and our civilization. This is a groundbreaking, essential book for our times. Thomas Homer-Dixon brings to bear his formidable understanding of the urgent problems that confront our world to clarify their scope and deep causes. The Upside of Down provides a vivid picture of the immense stresses that are simultaneously converging on our societies and threatening a breakdown that would profoundly shake civilization. It shows, too, how we can choose a better route into the future. With the immediacy that characterized his award-winning international bestseller, The Ingenuity Gap, Homer-Dixon takes us on a remarkable journey – from the fall of the Roman empire to the devastation of the 9/11 attacks in New York, from Toronto in the 2003 blackout to the ancient temples of Lebanon and the wildfires of California. Incorporating the newest findings from an astonishing array of disciplines, he argues that the great stresses our world is experiencing – global warming, energy scarcity, population imbalances, and widening gaps between rich and poor – can’t be looked at independently. As these stresses combine and converge, the risk of breakdown rises. The first signs are appearing in the wastelands of the Arctic, the mud-clogged streets of Gonaïves, Haiti, and the volatile regions of the Middle East and Asia. But while the consequences of denial in our more perilous world are dire, Homer-Dixon makes clear that we can use our emerging understanding of the complex systems in which we live to avoid catastrophic collapse in a way the Roman empire could not. This vitally important new book shows how, in the face of breakdown, we can still provide for the renewal of our global civilization. We are creating the conditions for catastrophe, but by understanding the underlying principles that make human and natural systems resilient – and by working together to put those principles into effect – we can still limit the severity of collapse and foster regeneration, innovation, and renewal.
Download or read book Nonsense written by Jamie Holmes and published by Crown. This book was released on 2016-10-11 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An illuminating look at the surprising upside of ambiguity—and how, properly harnessed, it can inspire learning, creativity, even empathy Life today feels more overwhelming and chaotic than ever. Whether it’s a confounding work problem or a faltering relationship or an unclear medical diagnosis, we face constant uncertainty. And we’re continually bombarded with information, much of it contradictory. Managing ambiguity—in our jobs, our relationships, and daily lives—is quickly becoming an essential skill. Yet most of us don’t know where to begin. As Jamie Holmes shows in Nonsense, being confused is unpleasant, so we tend to shutter our minds as we grasp for meaning and stability, especially in stressful circumstances. We’re hard-wired to resolve contradictions quickly and extinguish anomalies. This can be useful, of course. When a tiger is chasing you, you can’t be indecisive. But as Nonsense reveals, our need for closure has its own dangers. It makes us stick to our first answer, which is not always the best, and it makes us search for meaning in the wrong places. When we latch onto fast and easy truths, we lose a vital opportunity to learn something new, solve a hard problem, or see the world from another perspective. In other words, confusion—that uncomfortable mental place—has a hidden upside. We just need to know how to use it. This lively and original book points the way. Over the last few years, new insights from social psychology and cognitive science have deepened our understanding of the role of ambiguity in our lives and Holmes brings this research together for the first time, showing how we can use uncertainty to our advantage. Filled with illuminating stories—from spy games and doomsday cults to Absolut Vodka’s ad campaign and the creation of Mad Libs—Nonsense promises to transform the way we conduct business, educate our children, and make decisions. In an increasingly unpredictable, complex world, it turns out that what matters most isn’t IQ, willpower, or confidence in what we know. It’s how we deal with what we don’t understand.
Download or read book Unlocking Opportunities for Growth written by Ian C. MacMillan and published by Pearson Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2008-07-09 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This book is a must for any Business Development Manager, Corporate Strategist, R&D Director, and anyone else who is accountable for growth in a corporation. It is an easy read that is practical and not fraught with useless academic theories.” Ron Pierantozzi, Ph.D., CEO of PPT Research and Former Director, Business Development, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. A Breakthrough Approach to Investing in Business Innovation Most companies analyze investments using tools that bias them against real innovation and lead them to avoid their best opportunities. This book introduces a breakthrough alternative: Opportunity Engineering. Drawing upon recent advances in financial analysis, but without requiring a lot of math, the authors show how to engineer the risk out of uncertain opportunities so you can pursue more high-payoff innovations. You’ll learn how to escape from the “go/no-go vise” and implement more flexible decision-making that considers all the business alternatives, models, and opportunities associated with each project. You’ll learn how to systematically structure high-potential projects to limit downside exposure and boost your potential upside. The authors show how to define the scope of investment opportunities, identify key drivers of potential profits, document assumptions, design out major risks, and tease out key challenges and vulnerabilities. Using these techniques, you can escape the mindset that limits you to low-impact innovations and begin pursuing serious growth opportunities--and make business uncertainty work for you, not against you. Why companies avoid their best opportunities for innovation Getting past risk-averse analysis that snuffs out experimentation and innovation Systematically engineering your opportunities Capturing the upside, slicing out the downside Beyond rigid “go/no-go” decisions How flexible, staged innovation creates more opportunities for delivering value Constructing an engineered growth portfolio of innovation investments Optimizing your mix of core-enhancing investments and high potential “long shots”
Download or read book Flux written by April Rinne and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2021-08-24 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover eight powerful mindset shifts that enable leaders and seekers of all ages to thrive in a time of unprecedented change and uncertainty. Being adaptable and flexible have always been hallmarks of effective leadership and a fulfilling life. But in a world of so much—and faster-paced—change, and an ever-faster pace of change, flexibility and resilience can be stretched to their breaking points. The quest becomes how to find calm and lasting meaning in the midst of enduring chaos. A world in flux calls for a new mindset, one that treats constant change and uncertainty as a feature, not a bug. Flux helps readers open this mindset—a flux mindset—and develop eight “flux superpowers” that flip conventional ideas about leadership, success, and well-being on their heads. They empower people to see change in new ways, craft new responses, and ultimately reshape their relationship to change from the inside out. April Rinne defines these eight flux superpowers: • Run slower. • See what's invisible. • Get lost. • Start with trust. • Know your “enough.” • Create your portfolio career. • Be all the more human (and serve other humans). • Let go of the future. Whether readers are sizing up their career, reassessing their values, designing a product, building an organization, trying to inspire their colleagues, or simply showing up more fully in the world, enjoying a flux mindset and activating their flux superpowers will keep readers grounded even when the ground is too often shifting beneath them.
Download or read book The Innovator s Method written by Nathan Furr and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2014-08-19 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Have you ever come up with an idea for a new product or service but didn’t take any action because you thought it would be too risky? Or at work, have you had what you thought could be a big idea for your company—perhaps changing the way you develop or distribute a product, provide customer service, or hire and train your employees? If you have, but you haven’t known how to take the next step, you need to understand what the authors call the innovator’s method—a set of tools emerging from lean start-up, design thinking, and agile software development that are revolutionizing how new ideas are created, refined, and brought to market. To date these tools have helped entrepreneurs, designers, and software developers manage uncertainty—through cheap and rapid experiments that systematically lower failure rates and risk. But many managers and leaders struggle to apply these powerful tools within their organizations, as they often run counter to traditional managerial thinking and practice. Authors Nathan Furr and Jeff Dyer wrote this book to address that very problem. Following the breakout success of The Innovator’s DNA—which Dyer wrote with Hal Gregersen and bestselling author Clay Christensen to provide a framework for generating ideas—this book shows how to make those ideas actually happen, to commercialize them for success. Based on their research inside corporations and successful start-ups, Furr and Dyer developed the innovator’s method, an end-to-end process for creating, refining, and bringing ideas to market. They show when and how to apply the tools of their method, how to adapt them to your business, and how to answer commonly asked questions about the method itself, including: How do we know if this idea is worth pursuing? Have we found the right solution? What is the best business model for this new offering? This book focuses on the “how”—how to test, how to validate, and how to commercialize ideas with the lean, design, and agile techniques successful start-ups use. Whether you’re launching a start-up, leading an established one, or simply working to get a new product off the ground in an existing company, this book is for you.
Download or read book Certain Uncertainty written by Des Dearlove and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-05-02 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improve your ability to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable world In Certain Uncertainty, renowned management theorist Des Dearlove delivers an exciting and illuminating discussion of how to build resilience and agility into our lives and businesses. As rapid and foundational change becomes ever more constant, a state of constant disruption increasingly becomes our new normal. This book collects advice and fresh thinking from accomplished business leaders to help managers and executives navigate contemporary markets. In the book, you’ll find: Ways to structure your business to better respond to constant fluidity and change Discussions of why the concepts of economic and social certainty were always largely illusory Strategies for embracing forward-looking humility that acknowledges uncertainty about what lies around the next corner An engaging and insightful exploration of a dynamic and ambiguous world that’s increasingly full of surprises, Certain Uncertainty will earn a place on the bookshelves of business leaders, entrepreneurs, and visionaries seeking ways to adapt to a world in which sameness and certainty are relics of the past.
