Download or read book The Uncertainty of Budget Projections written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Uncertainty of Budget Projections written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book CBO Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainties in Projecting Budget Surpluses A Discussion of Data and Methods written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In January 31, 2001, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011, which presents CBO's latest projections of federal revenues and outlays for that period. Chapter 5 of that report discusses the uncertainties in CBO's baseline projection of the total budget surplus and includes a chart (reproduced here as Figure 1) illustrating how those uncertainties increase over six years. This supplement to that report discusses the data and methods used to construct the chart. Figure 1 presents CBO's baseline projection of the budget surplus as a fan of probabilities around the mean projection for fiscal years 2001 through 2006. The fan widens as the projection extends. The baseline projection falls in the middle of the highest probabilities the darkest part of the figure. But the figure makes clear that nearby projections-other paths in the darkest part of the figure have nearly the same probability as the baseline. Moreover, projections that are quite different from the baseline have a significant probability of being realized. The uncertainties shown in Figure I are based on CBO's historical record of budget projections. That is, the estimates of uncertainty presume that in the future, CBO will make errors similar to those it made in the past, with about the same probability distribution of large and small errors.
Download or read book Uncertainties in Projecting Budget Surpluses written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Download or read book Econometric Forecasting and High frequency Data Analysis written by Roberto S. Mariano and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (32 KB). Chapter 1: Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation* (97 KB). Contents: Forecasting Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation (K F Wallis); The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling (L R Klein & S Ozmucur); Forecasting Seasonal Time Series (P H Franses); Car and Affine Processes (C Gourieroux); Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (M Deistler). Readership: Professionals and researchers in econometric forecasting and financial data analysis.
Download or read book The Budget and Economic Outlook an Update written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management written by Mr.Jack Diamond and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.
Download or read book Budget Options written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding Government Budgets written by R. Mark Musell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-09-10 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budgets in the United States follow rules of presentation and use terms that make sense to few outside the world of government finance. Moreover, practices vary widely among the thousands of governments in the country, between federal, state, and local levels. Understanding Government Budgets offers detailed explanations of each of the different types of information found in budgets, featuring annotated examples from both state and local budgets, as well as the budget of the federal government. It stresses that the choices made about format and organization influence the story a budget tells about government. The goal of the book is to make the format of budgets and the information they contain accessible and understandable, helping users make better sense of government and its performance. Perfect for undergraduate or graduate level courses in budgeting and public administration, Understanding Government Budgets also makes a useful guide to budgets for the average citizen with an interest in how government operates or journalists writing about it.
Download or read book The Budget and Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The 2001 Joint Economic Report written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book OECD Journal on Budgeting written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book CBO s Economic Forecasting Record written by Holly Battelle and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy¿s actual performance and with others¿ forecasts. Such evaluations help guide CBO¿s efforts to improve the quality of its forecasts and are also intended to assist Members of Congress in their use of the agency¿s estimates. Contents of this report: (1) Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation; (2) Measuring the Quality of Forecasts: Statistical Bias; Accuracy; Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality; (3) Limitations of Forecast Evaluations: (4) The Effects of Bus. Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and Oil Price Shocks; (5) Forecasting Record: 2-Year Forecasts; 5-Year Projections; (6) Historical and Forecast Data.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book A Report to the Senate and House Committees on the Budget written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
