Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Weather Macroweather and the Climate written by Shaun Lovejoy and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather, Macroweather, and the Climate is an insider's attempt to explain as simply as possible how to understand the atmospheric variability that occurs over an astonishing range of scales: from millimeters to the size of the planet, from milliseconds to billions of years. The variability is so large that standard ways of dealing with it are utterly inadequate: in 2015, it was found that classical approaches had underestimated the variability by the astronomical factor of a quadrillion (a million billion). Author Shaun Lovejoy asks - and answers - many fundamental questions such as: Is the atmosphere random or deterministic? What is turbulence? How big is a cloud (what is the appropriate notion of size itself)? What is its dimension? How can we conceptualize the structures within structures within structures spanning millimeters to thousands of kilometers and milliseconds to the age of the planet? What is weather? What is climate? Lovejoy shows in simple terms why the industrial epoch warming can't be natural - much simpler than trying to show that it's anthropogenic. We will discuss in simple terms how to make the best seasonal and annual forecasts - without giant numerical models. Above all, the book offers readers a new understanding of the atmosphere.
Download or read book Stochastic Climate Models written by Peter Imkeller and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles written by mathematicians and physicists, designed to describe the state of the art in climate models with stochastic input. Mathematicians will benefit from a survey of simple models, while physicists will encounter mathematically relevant techniques at work.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences written by Anastasios A. Tsonis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-13 with total page 708 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences is a set of contributions from the participants of “30 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics” held July 3-8, 2016 in Rhodes, Greece as part of the Aegean Conferences, as well as from several other experts in the field who could not attend the meeting. The volume brings together up-to-date research from the atmospheric sciences, hydrology, geology, and other areas of geosciences and presents the new advances made in the last 10 years. Topics include chaos synchronization, topological data analysis, new insights on fractals, multifractals and stochasticity, climate dynamics, extreme events, complexity, and causality, among other topics.
Download or read book Extreme Events and Natural Hazards written by A. Surjalal Sharma and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-08 with total page 693 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 196. Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective examines recent developments in complexity science that provide a new approach to understanding extreme events. This understanding is critical to the development of strategies for the prediction of natural hazards and mitigation of their adverse consequences. The volume is a comprehensive collection of current developments in the understanding of extreme events. The following critical areas are highlighted: understanding extreme events, natural hazard prediction and development of mitigation strategies, recent developments in complexity science, global change and how it relates to extreme events, and policy sciences and perspective. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events and Natural Hazards will be of interest and relevance to scientists interested in nonlinear geophysics, natural hazards, atmospheric science, hydrology, oceanography, tectonics, and space weather.
Download or read book Fractals written by Behzad Ghanbarian and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides theoretical concepts and applications of fractals and multifractals to a broad range of audiences from various scientific communities, such as petroleum, chemical, civil and environmental engineering, atmospheric research, and hydrology. In the first chapter, we introduce fractals and multifractals from physics and math viewpoints. We then discuss theory and practical applications in detail. In what follows, in chapter 2, fragmentation process is modeled using fractals. Fragmentation is the breaking of aggregates into smaller pieces or fragments, a typical phenomenon in nature. In chapter 3, the advantages and disadvantages of two- and three-phase fractal models are discussed in detail. These two kinds of approach have been widely applied in the literature to model different characteristics of natural phenomena. In chapter 4, two- and three-phase fractal techniques are used to develop capillary pressure curve models, which characterize pore-size distribution of porous media. Percolation theory provides a theoretical framework to model flow and transport in disordered networks and systems. Therefore, following chapter 4, in chapter 5 the fractal basis of percolation theory and its applications in surface and subsurface hydrology are discussed. In chapter 6, fracture networks are shown to be modeled using fractal approaches. Chapter 7 provides different applications of fractals and multifractals to petrophysics and relevant area in petroleum engineering. In chapter 8, we introduce the practical advantages of fractals and multifractals in geostatistics at large scales, which have broad applications in stochastic hydrology and hydrogeology. Multifractals have been also widely applied to model atmospheric characteristics, such as precipitation, temperature, and cloud shape. In chapter 9, these kinds of properties are addressed using multifractals. At watershed scales, river networks have been shown to follow fractal behavior. Therefore, the applications of fractals are addressed in chapter 10. Time series analysis has been under investigations for several decades in physics, hydrology, atmospheric research, civil engineering, and water resources. In chapter 11, we therefore, provide fractal, multifractal, multifractal detrended fluctuation analyses, which can be used to study temporal characterization of a phenomenon, such as flow discharge at a specific location of a river. Chapter 12 addresses signals and again time series using a novel fractal Fourier analysis. In chapter 13, we discuss constructal theory, which has a perspective opposite to fractal theories, and is based on optimizationof diffusive exchange. In the case of river drainages, for example, the constructal approach begins at the divide and generates headwater streams first, rather than starting from the fundamental drainage pattern.
Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
Download or read book Ocean Circulation and Climate written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 893 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book represents all the knowledge we currently have on ocean circulation. It presents an up-to-date summary of the state of the science relating to the role of the oceans in the physical climate system. The book is structured to guide the reader through the wide range of world ocean circulation experiment (WOCE) science in a consistent way. Cross-references between contributors have been added, and the book has a comprehensive index and unified reference list. The book is simple to read, at the undergraduate level. It was written by the best scientists in the world who have collaborated to carry out years of experiments to better understand ocean circulation. - Presents in situ and remote observations with worldwide coverage - Provides theoretical understanding of processes within the ocean and at its boundaries to other Earth System components - Allows for simulating ocean and climate processes in the past, present and future using a hierarchy of physical-biogeochemical models
Download or read book The Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Sensitive Natural Hazards written by Diandong Ren and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-11-29 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems written by Graeme L. Hammer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to: farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems); regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna). Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
