Download or read book The Spatial Distribution of Contiguous United States Thunderstorm Related Short fuse Severe Weather Warnings written by Kevin M. Barrett and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this research is to define the spatial distribution of short-fuse severe weather warnings as they relate to population density within the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Using Geographic Information Science and statistical techniques, the overall spatial pattern of National Weather Service (NWS) warning issuance was determined along with correlations to population distribution. Four basic short-fuse warning types were studied; severe thunderstorm county-based warnings, severe thunderstorm storm (polygon) based warnings, tornado county-based warnings, and tornado storm-based warnings. Severe weather warning and ambient population data were obtained from United States Government sources and were spatially joined to the United States Geological Survey's 7.5 minute, 1:24,000 (1:25,000 metric) Quadrangle Series. Counts of the number of warnings issued and population density for each Quadrangle in the CONUS were statistically compared to find correlations between the two data types. The direction of the center of mean warning distribution was compared to the geographic center of National Weather Service County Warning Areas to determine if a directional bias exists. This study finds that a spatial relationship to population exists for three warnings types: severe thunderstorm storm-based warnings, tornado county-based warnings and tornado storm-based warnings. Population bias statistical evidence is most prevalent for severe storm-based warnings. This study also finds that the spatial distribution of warnings has shifted with the transition to storm-based warnings from the central part of the Nation to the southeastern United States. The annual frequency of county-based severe and tornado warnings was highest for the Central Plains, where severe storm-based warnings were issued for distinctly defined county warning areas mainly in the south and southeastern United States. Tornado storm-based warnings were issued more frequently in the Deep South, southeast, and Gulf Coast areas. Several National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices showed a tendency to have a high frequency of warnings when compared to neighboring NWS offices. Directional distribution varied drastically between weather forecast offices, but the overall tendency was for warnings to be issued to the south of the geographic center of National Weather Service County Warning Areas. Several weather forecast offices showed a tendency to issue more warnings in the up-range direction associated with climatological storm movement. Results from this study indicated that human influence is the main factor that contributes to warning frequency and spatial distribution.
Download or read book A Spatial Analysis of most Weather Warned Counties by Severe Weather Phenomena in the Contiguous United States written by Brandon Lawhorn and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Severe weather affects many regions of the United States, and has potential to greatly impact many facets of society. This study provides a climatological spatial analysis by county of severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) between January 1st, 1986 to December 31st, 2017 for the contiguous United States. The severe weather warnings were issued for county-based flash flood, severe thunderstorm, and tornado phenomena issued through the study period and region. Post 2002 severe weather warnings issued by storm warning area were included in this study in the form of county-based warnings simultaneously issued for each affected county. Past studies have researched severe weather warnings issued by the NWS, however these studies are limited in geographic representation, study period, and focused on population bias. A spatial analysis of severe weather warning occurrences by county identify that (a) highest occurrences of flash flood warnings are located in the desert Southwest and Texas, (b) severe thunderstorm warning occurrence is more frequent in Arizona, portions of the Midwest, the South, and the Mid and South Atlantic states, (c) the tornado activity regions of Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley (i.e. Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Illinois) contained the highest occurrences of tornado warnings, and (d) the highest instances of aggregate warning occurrences are found in the desert Southwest, the Midwest, and the Southern regions of the United States. Generally, severe weather warning "hot spots" tend to be located in those same regions, with greater coverage. This study concludes with a comparison of local maxima and general hot spot regions to expected regions for each phenomenon. Implications of this study are far reaching, including emergency management, and has potential to reduce risk of life.
Download or read book Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes in the United States written by Peter Folger and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04-10 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affect communities across the U.S. every year, causing fatalities, destroying property and crops, and disrupting businesses. Tornadoes are the most destructive products of severe thunderstorms. Damages from violent tornadoes seem to be increasing, similar to the trend for other natural hazards in part due to changing population, demographics, and more weather-sensitive infrastructure and some analysts indicate that losses of $1 billion or more from single tornado events are becoming more frequent. Insurance industry analysts state that tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and related weather events have caused nearly 57%, on average, of all insured catastrophe losses in the U.S. in any given year since 1953. Contents of this report: (1) Overview; (2) Issues for Congress: A Focus on Local Warnings and Forecasts for the National Weather Service; Mitigation: The National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program; Reauthorizing the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program; Climate Change and Severe Weather: The April and May 2011 Tornados: A Link to Climate Change?; Other Factors Contributing to Risk From Tornadoes; Forecasting and Warning: The Role of the National Weather Service; Summary and Conclusions; Appendix: Risk from Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes. Map and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Download or read book Centralized Storm Information System written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tornado Warnings and Weather Service Modernization written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research, and Environment and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes in the United States written by Peter Folger and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affect communities across the United States every year, causing fatalities, destroying property and crops, and disrupting businesses. Tornadoes are the most destructive products of severe thunderstorms, and second only to flash flooding as the cause for most thunderstorm-related fatalities. Damages from violent tornadoes seem to be increasing, similar to the trend for other natural hazards--in part due to changing population, demographics, and more weather-sensitive infrastructure--and some analysts indicate that losses of $1 billion or more from single tornado events are becoming more frequent. Policies that could reduce U.S. vulnerability to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes include improvements in the capability to accurately detect storms and to effectively warn those in harm's way. The National Weather Service (NWS) has the statutory authority to forecast weather and issue warnings. Some researchers suggest that there are limits to the effectiveness of improvements in forecasting ability and warning systems for reducing losses and saving lives from severe weather. The research suggests that, for example, social, behavioral, and demographic factors now play an increasingly important role in tornado-related fatalities. One issue for Congress is its role in mitigating damages, injuries, and fatalities from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The National Science and Technology Council has recommended the implementation of hazard mitigation strategies and technologies, including some--such as conducting weather-related research and development and disseminating results--that Congress has supported through annual appropriations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and other federal agencies. Other recommended strategies include land use and zoning changes, which are typically not in the purview of Congress. Congress attempted to clarify the federal role in mitigating damages from windstorms (including tornadoes and thunderstorms) by passing the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-360). It is not evident whether the program made progress toward its objective: achievement of major measurable reductions in the losses of life and property from windstorms. Authorization for the program expired at the end of FY2008. In the 113th Congress, legislation introduced in the House (H.R. 1786) would reauthorize the wind hazards program through FY2016. Similar legislation was introduced in the House and Senate in the 112th Congress, but no action was taken. It is not clear whether changes to climate over the past half-century have increased the frequency or intensity of thunderstorms and tornadoes, or whether climate changes were responsible for the intense and destructive tornado activity in 2011, or for the extremely destructive EF-5 tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. An issue for Congress is whether future climate change linked to increases in greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more frequent and more intense thunderstorms and tornadoes, and whether efforts by Congress to mitigate long-term climate change will reduce potential future losses from thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Download or read book Crs Report for Congress written by Congressional Research Service: The Libr and published by BiblioGov. This book was released on 2013-11 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affect communities across the United States every year, causing fatalities, destroying property and crops, and disrupting businesses. Tornadoes are the most destructive products of severe thunderstorms, and second only to flash flooding as the cause for most thunderstorm-related fatalities. Damages from violent tornadoes seem to be increasing, similar to the trend for other natural hazards-in part due to changing population, demographics, and more weather-sensitive infrastructure-and some analysts indicate that losses of $1 billion or more from single tornado events are becoming more frequent. Policies that could reduce U.S. vulnerability to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes include improvements in the capability to accurately detect storms and to effectively warn those in harm's way. The National Weather Service (NWS) has the statutory authority to forecast weather and issue warnings. Some researchers suggest that there are limits to the effectiveness of improvements in forecasting ability and warning systems for reducing losses and saving lives from severe weather. The research suggests that, for example, social, behavioral, and demographic factors now play an increasingly important role in tornado-related fatalities.
Download or read book Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes in the United States written by Peter Franklin Folger and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affect communities across the United States every year, causing fatalities, destroying property and crops, and disrupting businesses. Tornadoes are the most destructive products of severe thunderstorms, and second only to flash flooding as the cause for most thunderstorm-related fatalities. Damages from violent tornadoes seem to be increasing, similar to the trend for other natural hazards--in part due to changing population, demographics, and more weather-sensitive infrastructure--and some analysts indicate that losses of $1 billion or more from single tornado events are becoming more frequent. Policies that could reduce U.S. vulnerability to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes include improvements in the capability to accurately detect storms and to effectively warn those in harm's way. The National Weather Service (NWS) has the statutory authority to forecast weather and issue warnings. Some researchers suggest that there are limits to the effectiveness of improvements in forecasting ability and warning systems for reducing losses and saving lives from severe weather. The research suggests that, for example, social, behavioral, and demographic factors now play an increasingly important role in tornado-related fatalities. One issue for Congress is its role in mitigating damages, injuries, and fatalities from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The National Science and Technology Council has recommended the implementation of hazard mitigation strategies and technologies, including some--such as conducting weather-related research and development and disseminating results--that Congress has supported through annual appropriations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and other federal agencies. Other recommended strategies include land use and zoning changes, which are typically not in the purview of Congress. Congress attempted to clarify the federal role in mitigating damages from windstorms (including tornadoes and thunderstorms) by passing the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-360). It is not evident whether the program made progress toward its objective: achievement of major measurable reductions in the losses of life and property from windstorms. Authorization for the program expired at the end of FY2008. In the 113th Congress, legislation introduced in the House (H.R. 1786) would reauthorize the wind hazards program through FY2016. Similar legislation was introduced in the House and Senate in the 112th Congress, but no action was taken. It is not clear whether changes to climate over the past half-century have increased the frequency or intensity of thunderstorms and tornadoes, or whether climate changes were responsible for the intense and destructive tornado activity in 2011, or for the extremely destructive EF-5 tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. An issue for Congress is whether future climate change linked to increases in greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more frequent and more intense thunderstorms and tornadoes, and whether efforts by Congress to mitigate long-term climate change will reduce potential future losses from thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Download or read book Severe Storms written by National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Short-Range Prediction and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Examination of Tornado Report and Warning Near Storm Environments written by Alexandra Anderson-Frey and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study makes use of a 13-year dataset of 14,814 tornado events and 44,961 tornado warnings in the continental United States, along with near-storm environmental data associated with each of these tornado events and warnings, to build a methodology that can be used to create nuanced climatologies of near-storm environmental data. Two key parameter spaces are identified as being particularly useful in this endeavor: mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) versus 0--6-km vector shear magnitude (SHR6) and mixed-layer lifting condensation level (MLLCL) versus 0--1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH1). In addition, the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is identified as a useful composite parameter that can highlight near-storm environments that are particularly favorable for the development of significant tornadoes. Two particular statistical methods for the analysis and characterization of near-storm environments are described and applied: Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), which is applied to bulk (proximity sounding-like) parameter values associated with each event or warning, and Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), which are applied to fully two-dimensional plots of STP in an area surrounding each event or warning.The KDE approach characterizes and identifies differences in the environments of tornadoes forming in quasi-linear convective systems versus those forming in right-moving supercells; specific environmental traits are also identified for different geographical regions, seasons, and times of day. Tornado warning performance is found to be best in environments with particularly large values of MLCAPE and SHR6. The early evening transition (EET) period is of particular interest: MLCAPE and MLLCL heights are in the process of falling, and SHR6 and SRH1 are in the process of increasing. Accordingly, tornadoes rated 2 or greater on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF2+) are also most common during the EET, probability of detection (POD) is relatively high, and false-alarm ratio (FAR) is relatively low. Overall, when comparing the distribution of environments for events versus those for warnings, there is no "smoking gun" indicating a systematic problem with forecasting that explains the high overall false-alarm ratio, which instead seems to stem from the inability to know which storms in a given environment will be tornadic.The SOM approach establishes nine statistically distinct clusters of spatial distributions of STP values in the 480 km x 480 km region surrounding each tornado event or warning. For tornado events, distinct patterns are associated more with particular times of day, geographical locations, and times of year, and the use of two-dimensional data rather than point proximity sounding information means that these patterns can be identified and characterized with still more detail; for instance, the archetypal springtime dryline environment in the Great Plains emerges readily from the data. Although high values of STP tend to be associated with relatively high POD and relatively low FAR, the majority of tornado events occur within a pattern of low STP, with relatively high FAR and low POD. The two-dimensional plots produced by the SOM approach provide an intuitive way to create distinct climatologies of tornadic near-storm environments.Having established a methodology through the use of KDE and SOM, this research then examines the topic of tornado outbreaks [defined as ten or more (E)F1+ tornadoes that occur with no more than 6 h or 2,000 km between subsequent tornadoes]. Outbreak tornadoes in a given geographical region have greater SRH1 and SHR6 than isolated tornadoes in the same region, and also have considerably higher POD than isolated tornadoes. When SOMs are created for all (E)F1+ tornadoes, the percentage of outbreak tornadoes in a given node is found to depend more strongly on the magnitude of the STP surrounding the tornado than its orientation. For the SOM of outbreak tornadoes, outbreaks occurring in environments with higher magnitudes of STP will generally also have the highest casualty rates, regardless of the specific two-dimensional pattern of STP. Two specific tornado outbreaks are then examined through this methodology, which allows the events to be placed into their climatological context with more nuance than typical proximity sounding-based approaches would allow.
Download or read book Detecting Hazardous Weather Potential in Low Signal to noise Ratio Settings written by Paul Wesley Miller and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFT), convection forming in stagnant summer air masses, are a historical forecasting challenge for operational meteorologists. Pulse thunderstorms, defined by this dissertation as WFTs that produce severe weather, closely resemble their nonsevere counterparts, thwarting forecaster efforts to issue accurate severe weather warnings. This dissertation seeks to overcome the apparent similarities by developing a large, custom dataset of WFTs and applying machine learning techniques to accurately distinguish nonsevere WFTs from pulse thunderstorms as well as the convective environments that enhance WFT intensity. The WFT dataset (885,496 storms) is extracted from 15 years of warm season (May-September) composite reflectivity radar imagery from 30 collection sites in the Southeast, U.S., an active WFT region. Further, output from a high-resolution weather model, the Rapid Refresh, is used to characterize the convective environment of all WFTs between 20120́32015 (228,363 storms), and thirteen additional radar-derived and lightning-related parameters are recorded for WFTs during June and July of this subset (84,664 storms). Pulse thunderstorms, WFTs associated with Storm Data severe weather reports, constitute 0.60%, 0.65%, and 0.97% of each subset, respectively. The results of this dissertation show that the spatial maximum in pulse thunderstorm activity, the Blue Ridge Mountains, is displaced from the overall WFT maximum in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Only two convective environmental parameters, vertical totals (VT) and total totals (TT), appreciably differentiate days with pulse thunderstorm activity from days with only nonsevere WFTs. When VTs (TTs) exceed 25.1℗ʻC (47.3℗ʻC), severe wind days are roughly 5x more likely. Meanwhile, severe hail days became roughly 10x more likely when VTs (TTs) exceed 26.0℗ʻC (49.2℗ʻC). A decision-tree-based machine learning algorithm, random forests, struggles to distinguish pulse thunderstorms from nonsevere WFTs in the broadest sample, but performs satisfactorily in a subset of the most active geographic regions and convective environments mentioned above. The critical success index (CSI) is 46.0%, which out-performs the U.S. National Weather Service CSI (34.8%) for severe thunderstorm warnings issued on pulse thunderstorms. Likely under-reporting of pulse thunderstorm-related severe weather is hypothesized to impede identification of clearer differences between pulse thunderstorm and nonsevere WFT environments and radar behavior.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Scanning the Skies written by Marlene Bradford and published by University of Oklahoma Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tornadoes, nature's most violent and unpredictable storms, descend from the clouds nearly one thousand times yearly and have claimed eighteen thousand American lives since 1880. However, the U.S. Weather Bureau--fearing public panic and believing tornadoes were too fleeting for meteorologists to predict--forbade the use of the word "tornado" in forecasts until 1938. Scanning the Skies traces the history of today's tornado warning system, a unique program that integrates federal, state, and local governments, privately controlled broadcast media, and individuals. Bradford examines the ways in which the tornado warning system has grown from meager beginnings into a program that protects millions of Americans each year. Although no tornado forecasting program existed before WWII, the needs of the military prompted the development of a severe weather warning system in tornado prone areas. Bradford traces the post-war creation of the Air Force centralized tornado forecasting program and its civilian counterpart at the Weather Bureau. Improvements in communication, especially the increasing popularity of television, allowed the Bureau to expand its warning system further. This book highlights the modern tornado watch system and explains how advancements during the latter half of the twentieth-century--such as computerized data collection and processing systems, Doppler radar, state-of-the-art television weather centers, and an extensive public education program--have resulted in the drastic reduction of tornado fatalities.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation s Electricity System written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-10-25 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Americans' safety, productivity, comfort, and convenience depend on the reliable supply of electric power. The electric power system is a complex "cyber-physical" system composed of a network of millions of components spread out across the continent. These components are owned, operated, and regulated by thousands of different entities. Power system operators work hard to assure safe and reliable service, but large outages occasionally happen. Given the nature of the system, there is simply no way that outages can be completely avoided, no matter how much time and money is devoted to such an effort. The system's reliability and resilience can be improved but never made perfect. Thus, system owners, operators, and regulators must prioritize their investments based on potential benefits. Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation's Electricity System focuses on identifying, developing, and implementing strategies to increase the power system's resilience in the face of events that can cause large-area, long-duration outages: blackouts that extend over multiple service areas and last several days or longer. Resilience is not just about lessening the likelihood that these outages will occur. It is also about limiting the scope and impact of outages when they do occur, restoring power rapidly afterwards, and learning from these experiences to better deal with events in the future.
Download or read book The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina written by and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2006 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The objective of this report is to identify and establish a roadmap on how to do that, and lay the groundwork for transforming how this Nation- from every level of government to the private sector to individual citizens and communities - pursues a real and lasting vision of preparedness. To get there will require significant change to the status quo, to include adjustments to policy, structure, and mindset"--P. 2.
Download or read book Lifelines written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-07-16 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Infrastructure—electricity, telecommunications, roads, water, and sanitation—are central to people’s lives. Without it, they cannot make a living, stay healthy, and maintain a good quality of life. Access to basic infrastructure is also a key driver of economic development. This report lays out a framework for understanding infrastructure resilience - the ability of infrastructure systems to function and meet users’ needs during and after a natural hazard. It focuses on four infrastructure systems that are essential to economic activity and people’s well-being: power systems, including the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; water and sanitation—especially water utilities; transport systems—multiple modes such as road, rail, waterway, and airports, and multiple scales, including urban transit and rural access; and telecommunications, including telephone and Internet connections.
