Download or read book The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution written by Leonid Grinin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRICtechnologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies

Download or read book The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self Regulating Systems written by Grinin, Leonid and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).

Download or read book KONDRATIEFF WAVES written by Leonid E. Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fourth issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ has the subtitle ‘The Spectrum of Opinions’, as its papers cover a whole range of problems. The Yearbook consists of three sections. The Introduction of this issue is dedicated to Nikolai Kondratieff's ideas which still are important to an analysis of the world economic situation. The first section (Long Waves in the Context of World Economy and Politics) includes five contributions devoted to the study of different spheres from economy to jihadism. The speeches of Kondratieff medal laureates are published in the second section (Kondratieff Medal: Winners' Speeches). It presents a very impressive collection of different views of well-known and young researchers. The last section (Reviews and Notes) includes Antony Harper's re view of Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev and Arno Tausch's monograph ‘Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery’ published by Springer International Publishing. This issue will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

Download or read book Cybernetic Revolution and Global Aging written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The MANBRIC Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution written by Leonid Grinin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In this chapter, we analyze the relationship between Kondratieff waves and major technological revolutions on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, and offer some forecasts about the features of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave/the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We show that the technological breakthrough of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave may be interpreted as both the Fourth Industrial Revolution and as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of selfregulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable of combining a number of other technologies into a single system of new and innovative technologies (we denote this system as a system of MANBRIC-technologies - i.e. medical, additive, nano-, bio-, robo-, info-, and cogno-technologies)

Download or read book Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century written by Jack A. Goldstone and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-19 with total page 1048 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 21st century has witnessed a considerable and increasing number of political revolutions around the world. This contradicts the popular belief of many experts in the 1970s that revolutions occurred mainly in monarchies and empires. Instead, the revolutions of this century have several new characteristics, which call for a renewed analysis of the subject. This handbook offers a comparative perspective on the new wave of revolutions of the last decade. Presenting case studies on the color revolutions, the Arab revolutions of 2010–2011, and the global wave of revolutions in 2013–2018 that spanned regions ranging from Africa to the Caucasus, it offers a better understanding of the varied forms, features, and historical backgrounds of revolutions, as well as their causes. Accordingly, it highlights recent revolutions in their historical and world-systems contexts. The handbook is divided into seven parts, the first of which examines the history of views on revolution and important aspects of the theory of revolution. The second part analyzes revolutions within long-term historical trends and in their world-system contexts. In turn, the third part explores specific major revolutionary waves in history. The fourth part analyzes the first revolutionary wave of the 21st century (2000–2009), the so-called color revolutions, while the fifth discusses the second wave – the Arab Spring (2010–2013) – as an important turning point. The sixth part is dedicated to analyzing revolutions and revolutionary movements beyond the Arab Spring and some revolutionary events from the third wave that began in 2018. The seventh and final part offers forecasts on the future of revolutions. Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars and students from various disciplines interested in historical trends, sociopolitical change, contentious politics, social movements, and revolutionary processes involving both nonviolent campaigns and political violence. ​"Once again, this volume demonstrates the kind of open-minded, systematic analysis that the field of revolutionary studies requires." (Prof. George Lawson, Department of International Relations, Australian National University Canberra)

Download or read book The Routledge Companion to Big History written by Craig Benjamin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-01 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Routledge Companion to Big History guides readers though the variety of themes and concepts that structure contemporary scholarship in the field of big history. The volume is divided into five parts, each representing current and evolving areas of interest to the community, including big history’s relationship to science, social science, the humanities, and the future, as well as teaching big history and ‘little big histories’. Considering an ever-expanding range of theoretical, pedagogical and research topics, the book addresses such questions as what is the relationship between big history and scientific research, how are big historians working with philosophers and religious thinkers to help construct ‘meaning’, how are leading theoreticians making sense of big history and its relationship to other creation narratives and paradigms, what is ‘little big history’, and how does big history impact on thinking about the future? The book highlights the place of big history in historiographical traditions and the ways in which it can be used in education and public discourse across disciplines and at all levels. A timely collection with contributions from leading proponents in the field, it is the ideal guide for those wanting to engage with the theories and concepts behind big history.

Download or read book Industry 4 0 written by Tessaleno Devezas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-28 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest research perspectives on how the Industry 4.0 paradigm is challenging the process of technological and structural change and how the diversification of the economy affects structural transformation. It also explores the impact of fast-growing technologies on the transformation of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and asks whether structural and technological change can generate sustainable economic growth and employment. Further, the book presents the basic innovations (new technologies, materials, energy, etc) and industrial policies that can lead to such a structural change.

Download or read book Great Divergence and Great Convergence written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-05-09 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results. This sophisticated presentation examines: Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world. How this development began occurring under the Western world's radar. How former colonies of major powers grew to drive the world's economy. Why so many Western economists have been slow to recognize the Great Convergence. The increasing risk of geopolitical instability. Why the world is likely to find itself without an absolute leader after the end of the American hegemony A work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.

Download or read book EVOLUTION written by Leonid E. Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present volume is the fifth issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are designed to present to its readers the widest possible spectrum of subjects and issues: from universal evolutionism to the analysis of particular evolutionary regularities in the development of biological, abiotic, and social systems, culture, cognition, language, etc. The main objective of our Yearbook is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research, within which scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. Global evolution (in connection with the Big History) becomes the main subject of our Yearbook. We strive to arrange each issue in such a way that the line from cosmic evolution to the human future is evident. What is the subject of the present issue of the Yearbook? Similar to the previous issues, it shows some aspects of the evolutionary advance from the earlier phases to the anticipated future of human society. But on the whole, this volume is devoted to different aspects and facts of megaevolution and some universal theories in an attempt to find common ground in the diversity of manifestation of evolution and its forms at different stages of development. So the title of this issue, ‘Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts’, is fully justified (besides, several papers contribute to the field of Big History). The volume consists of four sections: Dimensions, Trends, and Aspects; Big History's Manifestations; Trends and Forecasts; and Reviews and Information. This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us.

Download or read book HISTORY MATHEMATICS written by Leonid Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present Yearbook (which is the eighth in the series) is subtitled Investigating Past and Future. It is devoted to three problems: the analysis of the aspects of past and present in the light of formal methods; singularity, i.e. forthcoming abrupt shift in development, the approach (or even presence) of which we already feel; the aspects of the cosmic future of human race. This issue consists of four sections: (I) History, Technologies, Politics, and Mathematics includes five articles on different directions of factual or theoretical content: history, technology, politics, and studies covering past, present, and future; (II) Singularity includes two contributions and is devoted to a rather interesting phenomenon of singularity. They suggest that indeed the hyperbolic planetary evolutionary trend observed since the origins of life on the Earth cannot continue beyond the forthcoming singularity, whereas the post-singular evolutionary trend should be qualitatively different from what has been observed before; (III) Beyond the Earth also consists of two very different articles, but they are united by their interest in the future of human race in terms of their interaction with the space; (IV) Reviews and Notes. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.

Download or read book Reconsidering the Limits to Growth written by Viktor Sadovnichy and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-09-25 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Echoing the famous "The Limits to Growth" report from 1972, this edited volume analyses the changes that the World System has undergone to the present, on the fiftieth anniversary of the original report. During the past fifty years, both the concept and understanding of these limits have significantly changed. This book highlights that the evolution of the World System has approached a new critical milestone, moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies no longer work as efficiently as before or even begin to function counterproductively, which leads the World System into a systemic crisis. The book discusses the transition of human society to a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. New approaches are needed for both, for the analysis of the global situation, and for forecasts. The book is based on an integrated approach including the world-systems, historical and evolutionary perspectives, as well as a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others. Through mathematical modeling, it defines the main vectors of transformations of the World System; makes a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of the society and the World System, while presenting horizons of changes from short-term to ultra-long-term; and presents different development scenarios as well as recommendations on how to achieve a transition to the most favorable scenario. The book will appeal to members and followers of the Club of Rome, policy-makers, as well as to scholars from various disciplines interested in a better understanding of the World System evolution, global futures, development studies, climate change, and future societies.

Download or read book Globalistics and globalization studies written by Leonid E. Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present volume is the fifth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global Transformations and Global Future. We become more and more accustomed to think globally and to see global processes. And our future can all means be global. However, is this statement justified? Indeed, in recent years, many have begun to claim that globalization has stalled, that we are rather dealing with the process of anti-globalization. Will not we find ourselves at some point again in an edifice spanning across the globe, but divided into national apartments, separated by walls of high tariffs and mutual suspicion? Of course, some setbacks are always possible, because the process of globalization cannot develop smoothly. It is a process which is itself emerging from contradictions and is shaped by a new contradiction. They often go much further than underlying systemic changes allow. They break forward, as the vanguard of a victorious army, and then often meet resistance of various social and political forces and may suddenly start to roll back just at the moment when everyone expects their further offensive. We believe that this is what is happening with globalization at present. The yearbook will be interesting to a wide range of researchers, teachers, students and all those who are concerned about global issues.

Download or read book Economic Cycles Crises and the Global Periphery written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.

Download or read book New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region written by Leonid Issaev and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-05 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comparative perspective on the new wave of revolutions in the MENA region. Recently, a new wave of revolutions has swept the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comparable in some respects to the events of the Arab Spring. Revolutionary events have significantly changed the political regimes in Sudan, Algeria and Mali, while Lebanon and Iraq have also witnessed serious revolutionary episodes. Further, a new quality of protests has manifested in Iran, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan. Presenting a variety of country studies, this book identifies similarities and differences between the events of the Arab Spring and the current upheavals in the MENA region and examines their causes and world-system context. It also analyzes the motivating forces, goals and organizational forms of the protesters and other actors involved, as well as the political and economic consequences of these revolutionary events. Moreover, it seeks to understand why some countries that were actively involved in the Arab Spring have remained largely unaffected by these developments. The book appeals to scholars of political science with a focus on comparative politics, Middle Eastern politics and political sociology.

Download or read book The Sixth Kondratieff written by Leo Nefiodow and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-04-19 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the major new growth markets of the future? Why do groundbreaking innovations - like the computer, the automobile or the steam engine in the past - increasingly fail to materialize? What are the current growth barriers that hinder the further development of economy and society? The reader will find answers to these questions in this book. The Theory of Long Waves serves as a scientific foundation. In short, it states that economic and social development is significantly determined by periodic cycles that last between 40 and 60 years. In honor of their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff, these long waves are called Kondratieff cycles. Since the late 18th century, economists have empirically proven five Kondratieff cycles. The long waves have a particularly strategic role: those, who identify the respective current Kondratieff cycle early on are able to focus on the future, to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its momentum - just like the leading command of information technology during the last, the fifth Kondratieff cycle made full employment and increasing wealth possible for these countries. The sixth Kondratieff cycle has begun with the turn of this century. As the analyses in this book show, health care will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects. Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next decades. This book is tailored to a general audience, includes 76 graphics and 13 tables and is aimed at stakeholders in economy and society, experts and managers and all those, who are interested in the future. Aside from a profound analysis, the book also describes measures to develop the sixth Kondratieff.

Download or read book Global Population Ageing the Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Global Financial System written by Leonid Grinin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its im-portant consequences for particular societies and the whole world. Basing on this analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the future technological break-through is likely to take place in the 2030s (which we define as the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution). In the 2020s - 2030s we will expect the upswing of the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave, which will introduce the sixth tech-nological paradigm (system). All those revolutionary technological changes will be connected, first of all, with breakthroughs in medicine and related tech-nologies. We also present our ideas about the financial instruments that can help to solve the problem of pension provision for an increasing elderly popula-tion in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the lat-ter into education and upgrading skills of young peopl