Download or read book The short run economic costs of COVID 19 in developing countries in 2020 A synthesis of results from a multi country modeling exercise written by Pauw, Karl and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-04 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

Download or read book COVID 19 impacts on smallholder farmers in Northern Shan State in Myanmar written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-12-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report on how the first wave of COVID-19 impacted on smallholder farmers in northern Shan State in Myanmar. The study examines the interactions of reduced border trade, remittances and contracted labour markets on household food security, nutrition and land tenure. In turn, tenure insecurity in rural areas may deepen the effects of COVID-19, as most rural people struggle to sustain their livelihoods through access to land and other natural resources. This is relevant as many ethnic groups in northern Shan State continue to manage their land through customary tenure systems that are not fully recognized by state authorities.

Download or read book COVID 19 and global food security Two years later written by McDermott, John and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-03-07 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

Download or read book Mitigating poverty and undernutrition through social protection A simulation analysis of the COVID 19 pandemic in Bangladesh and Myanmar written by Ecker, Olivier and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-02-13 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in severe income losses, but little is known about its impacts on diets and nutritional adequacy, or the effectiveness of social protection interventions in mitigating dietary and nutritional impacts. We first assess the likely impacts of COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Myanmar on poverty and food and nutrient consumption gaps. We then analyze the estimated mitigating effects of five hypothetical social protection interventions of a typical monetary value: (1) cash transfers; (2) in-kind transfers of common rice; (3) in-kind transfers of fortified rice enriched with multiple essential micronutrients; (4) vouchers for a diversified basket of rice and non-staple foods; and (5) food vouchers with fortified rice instead of common rice. The simulation results suggest modest effectiveness of the cash transfers for mitigating poverty increases and little effectiveness of all five transfers for preventing increasing food and nutrient consumption gaps among the poorest 40%. Rice fortification is, however, effective at closing key micronutrient consumption gaps and could be a suitable policy instrument for averting ‘hidden hunger’ during economic crises.

Download or read book Resilience in the Malawi agri food system amid the COVID 19 crisis Evidence from a 2021 nationally representative household survey written by Ragasa, Catherine and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-03-30 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides a farm-level analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, 12–15 months in, using a nationally representative rural household survey conducted in June–July 2021. We draw three major observations from the survey. First, farming activities, access to inputs and extension services, production, and sales were largely unaffected by the crisis. There were temporary challenges in accessing inputs during lockdown and mobility restrictions, and input prices and transportation costs increased; however, production and sales volume and value were largely unaffected. Second, although farming was not affected, other nonfarm livelihoods of a large proportion of farmers were negatively affected because of lower demand and fewer buyers. Eighty-two percent of rural households were engaged in various nonfarm livelihoods, and 32 percent reported negative impacts of the crisis on their nonfarm incomes. Third, direct responses from sample households indicate no negative impacts of the crisis on food access and food consumption by most rural households. Comparisons between 2018 and 2021 of various food security indicators show improvements in food access and dietary diversity. Improvements are likely attributable to better harvests overall and greater awareness of the need to eat healthy and nutritious foods to combat COVID-19 and other diseases. Results show overall resilience of rural households and the agriculture sector amid the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, the survey was conducted right after harvest, and the situation needs to be monitored during the lean season.

Download or read book Double Jeopardy COVID 19 coup d etat and poverty in Myanmar written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-06-28 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar experienced four distinct COVID shocks to its economy over 2020 to early 2022 as well as a military takeover in February 2021 that created severe political, civil and economic turmoil. COVID and the coup d’état reversed a decade of growth and poverty reduction, but the full extent of the crisis on household poverty has remained uncertain because of the challenges of conducting large-scale in-person welfare surveys during the pandemic and recent political instability. Here we combine ex ante simulation models with diverse phone survey evidence from mid-2020 to early 2022 to estimate the poverty impacts of these shocks and some of the mechanisms behind them. Both simulations and surveys are consistent in painting a grim picture of rising poverty, capital-depleting coping mechanisms, and the complete collapse of government-provided social protection.

Download or read book Rwanda s agrifood system Structure and drivers of transformation written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-01-25 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Download or read book The short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy 2020 2021 A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.

Download or read book Building more resilient food systems Lessons and policy recommendations from the COVID 19 pandemic written by McDermott, John and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-24 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two years in, the long-term health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to influence poverty, food systems, and food security. Drawing on CGIAR research on the COVID-19 pandemic thus far, this brief presents key lessons learned and policy recommendations to inform decision-making processes around managing risks, addressing structural vulnerabilities, and building resilient and sustainable food systems.

Download or read book Kenya s agrifood system Structure and drivers of transformation written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased income generating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

Download or read book The short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy 2020 2021 A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

Download or read book Assessing the short term impacts of COVID 19 on Ethiopia s economy External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Download or read book Estimating the economic costs of COVID 19 in Nigeria written by Andam, Kwaw S. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Download or read book Short term impacts of COVID 19 on the Malawian economy Initial results written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-29 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of COVID 19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region written by Johannes G. Hoogeveen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-12-20 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.

Download or read book The cost of COVID 19 on the Indonesian economy A Social Accounting Matrix SAM multiplier approach written by Pradesha, Angga and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustained economic growth and a declining trend in poverty over the years in Indonesia potentially will come to a halt this year. This development cost comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak that recently hit the country. Like in many other countries, one of the largest costs of COVID-19 comes from the social distancing policy, which is a proven public health measure to reduce the spread of the virus by limiting people’s movements and interactions for a certain period of time. The government of Indonesia adopted this approach by gradually introducing in certain regions the Large-scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy from early April 2020. PSBB restricts non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. IFPRI, the National Development Planning Agency of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), and IPB University used a SAM multiplier model to measure the economic impact of PSBB if restrictions were to be in place for four weeks and to explore potential recovery processes after the policy ends. Some of the key findings were: • National GDP is estimated to fall by 24 percent during the four-week PSBB period, • External sector shocks – reduced export demand, lower remittances, and lower foreign investments – contribute around one-third of total GDP losses; • The GDP of Indonesia’s agri-food system falls by 13 percent despite agriculture activities being excluded from restrictive measures; • National poverty is expected to jump by 13 percentage points – an additional 36 million people will fall into poverty during the four-week PSBB period; and • By the end of 2020, due to COVID-19 the annual GDP growth is expected to be between 5.3 and 7.3 percent lower than under a baseline scenario without COVID-19.

Download or read book Covid 19 and lockdown policies A structural simulation model of a bottom up recession in four countries written by Robinson, Sherman and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.