Download or read book The seasonal cycle in U S manufacturing written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.
Download or read book Interactions Between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories written by Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Noha Emara and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989) revealed the seasonal cycle of the U.S. economy from 1948 to 1985 was characterized by a "bubble-like" expansion in the second and fourth quarters, a "crash-like" contraction in the first quarter, and a mild contraction in the third quarter. We replicate, in part, their seasonal cycle analysis from 1946 to 2001. Our results are largely in line with theirs. Nonetheless, we find the seasonal cycle is not stable and can evolve across time. In particular, the Great Moderation affected both the business cycle and the seasonal cycle.Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron also found real aggregates, like the output, move together in the seasonal cycle across broadly defined sectors, similar to a phenomenon observed under the conventional business cycle. They posed a challenge question concerning why "the seasonal and the conventional business cycles are so similar.'' To answer their question, we focus on a number of aggregate variables with a recursive application of the HP filter and find that aggregates, such as the GDP, consumption, the S&P 500 Index, and so forth, have a "bubble-like" expansion and a "crash-like" contraction in their cyclical trends in business cycle frequencies. Although preference shifts and production synergy are the two major forces that drive the seasonal cycle, we find the time-varying stochastic discount factor is the main cause of the business cycle and plays a more important role in macroeconomic fluctuations in business cycle frequencies than other factors.
Download or read book A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal cycle is easier than interpretation over the business cycle. The reason is that the ultimate sources of seasonal cycles are more readily identifiable than those of business cycles. This paper uses the cross country variation in seasonal patterns to pin down the ultimate sources of seasonal variation more precisely than is possible from examination of U.S. data alone. We conclude that a Christmas shift in preferences and synergies across agents are the key determinants of the seasonal patterns around the world. The paper also establishes that, across developed countries, the key observations about aggregate variables that characterize the business cycle also characterize the seasonal cycle. Thus, the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle demonstrated by Barsky and Miron (1989) for the united states is a robust stylized fact.
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data, they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation. In general, macroeconomists abstract from this seasonal variation, both in their models of cyclical behavior and in their empirical testing of these models. This standard practice is a useful simplification if two key conditions hold. The first is that there are no interactions between seasonal cycles and business cycles: they result from different exogenous factors and different economic propagation mechanisms. The second is that there are no important welfare issues attached to seasonal fluctuations per se: optimal government policy toward seasonals is simply to leave them alone. The purpose of this essay is twofold. It first summarizes recent work demonstrating that seasonal cycles and business cycles are intimately related, displaying similar stylized facts and being driven by similar economic propogation mechanisms. The essay then discusses the possible welfare implications of seasonal cycles, suggesting there is no reasonable presumption they are uninteresting from a welfare or policy perspective. Taken together, these results imply the need for a significant re-orientation in economists' treatment of seasonal fluctuations. Rather than a component of the data to be adjusted away and treated as noise, seasonal fluctuations represent a key topic of economic analysis. They contain significant information about the nature of business cycles, and they require analysis in their own right because they may induce significant welfare losses.
Download or read book The Cyclical Sensitivity of Seasonality in Us Employment written by Spencer D. Krane and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a growing recognition in the literature on business cycles that production technologies may give rise to complicated interactions between seasonal and cyclical movements in economic time series, which can distort business cycle inference based on seasonally adjusted data. For the most part, however, the empirical research in this area has relied on standard univariate seasonal adjustment techniques that provide only a partial description of such interactions. In this paper, we develop an unobserved components model that explicitly accounts for the effects of business cycles on industry-level seasonality and for the potential feedback from seasonality to the aggregate business cycle. In particular, the model extracts an aggregate common cycle from industry-level data, allows formal statistical testing of seasonal differences in the comovement of an industry with the common cycle, and identifies economy-wide and industry-specific contributions to the seasonal and non-seasonal variation in the data. Applying the model to quarterly US payroll employment data, we frequently find evidence of statistically significant differences across seasons in the comovement between sectoral employment and the common cycle. On the other hand, we also find that seasonal fluctuations in employment at the industry level are largely idiosyncratic and that the proportion of the total variance of the common cycle accounted for by seasonality is much less than for aggregate employment. This suggests that seasonal shocks may have less of a business cycle element to them than one might infer from the seasonal movements in aggregate variables.
Download or read book BCD Business Cycle Developments written by United States. Bureau of the Census and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 952 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modelling Seasonality written by Svend Hylleberg and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1992 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together leading papers on the existing standard economic theory of seasonality as well as papers which apply newer statistical tools to the modelling of seasonal phenomena. It includes a discussion of the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment, as well as an assessment ofrecent developments in the field.
Download or read book What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.
Download or read book The American Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dairy Manufacturing Plant Capacity and Utilization written by Harold W. Lough and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom written by Stephen G. Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this finding using a simple analytical model that describes the conditions under which seasonal and cyclical fluctuations can be separated. Our model implies that seasonal fluctuations can safely be disentangled from cyclical fluctuations only when the marginal cost of production is linear, and the variation in demand and cost satisfy certain (restrictive) conditions. The model also suggests that inventory movements can be used to isolate the role of demand shifts in generating any interaction between seasonal cycles and business cycles. Thus, the empirical analysis involves studying the variation in seasonally unadjusted patterns of production and inventory accumulation over different phases of the business cycle. Our finding that seasonals shrink during booms and that firms carry more inventories into high sales seasons during a boom leads us to conclude that for several industries, marginal cost slopes up at an increasing rate. Conversely, in a couple of industries we find that seasonal swings in production are exaggerated during booms and that inventories are drawn down prior to high sales seasons, suggesting that marginal costs curves flatten as production increases. Overall, we find considerable evidence that there are non-linear interactions between business cycles and seasonal cycles.
Download or read book Seasonal Variations in Employment in Manufacturing Industries written by J. Parker Bursk and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2017-01-30 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a volume in the Penn Press Anniversary Collection. To mark its 125th anniversary in 2015, the University of Pennsylvania Press rereleased more than 1,100 titles from Penn Press's distinguished backlist from 1899-1999 that had fallen out of print. Spanning an entire century, the Anniversary Collection offers peer-reviewed scholarship in a wide range of subject areas.
Download or read book Macroeconomics written by Steven L. Green and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
