Download or read book The Roles of Comovement and Inventory Investment in the Reduction of Output Volatility written by Owen Irvine and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the reduction in GDP volatility since the 1983 is accounted for by a decline in comovement of output among industries that hold inventories. This decline is not simply a passive byproduct of reduced volatility in common factors or shocks. Instead, structural changes occurred in the long-run and dynamic relationships among industries' sales and inventory investment behavior - especially in the automobile and related industries, which are linked by supply and distribution chains featuring new production and inventory management techniques. Using a HAVAR model (Fratantoni and Schuh 2003) with only two sectors, manufacturing and trade, we discover structural changes that reduced comovement of sales and inventory investment both within and between industries. As a result, the response of aggregate output to all types of shocks is dampened. Structural changes accounted for more than 80 percent of the reduction in output volatility, thus weakening the case for "good luck," and altered industries' responses to federal funds rate shocks, thus suggesting the case for "better monetary policy" is complicated by changes in the real side of the economy.
Download or read book The Roles of Comovement and Inventory Investment in the Reduction of Output Volatility written by F. Owen Irvine and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the reduction in GDP volatility since 1983 is accounted for by a decline in comovement of output among industries that hold inventories. This decline is not simply a passive byproduct of reduced volatility in common factors or shocks. Instead, structural changes occurred in the long-run and dynamic relationships among industries' sales and inventory investment behavior--especially in the automobile and related industries, which are linked by supply and distribution chains featuring new production and inventory management techniques. Using a HAVAR model (Fratantoni and Schuh 2003) with only two sectors, manufacturing and trade, we discover structural changes that reduced comovement of sales and inventory investment both within and between industries. As a result, the response of aggregate output to all types of shocks is dampened. Structural changes accounted for more than 80 percent of the reduction in output volatility, thus weakening the case for "good luck," and altered industries' responses to federal funds rate shocks, thus suggesting the case for "better monetary policy" is complicated by changes in the real side of the economy.
Download or read book The Quant Investor s Almanac 2011 written by Irene Aldridge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-08-26 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The only book that examines the economic events relevant to economic indicators Economic indicators are often the primary drivers of value in various financial securities, from equities and fixed income to foreign exchange, commodities, and various derivative instruments. Most indicators are released on a fixed schedule, known well in advance. However, aggregating the schedules of all the announcements is a lot of work. That's where The Quant Investor's Almanac 2011comes in handy. This reliable guide identifies the release dates of data used by leading indicators, which are widely used by traders, and then puts this information in perspective – all while organizing this valuable information into an easy to use calendar format. Highlights the latest research related to each economic indicator Includes an online application where you can find daily updates to economic events and expanded references Provides a ready reference for properly anticipating changes in securities given various economic announcements The right information can make all the difference in your trading or investing endeavors. This book will show you exactly what you need to know in order to enhance your financial performance.
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inventories in National Economies written by Attila Chikán and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-05 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.
Download or read book What Happens During Recessions Crunches and Busts written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42
Download or read book FRBSF Economic Letter written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Time Series and Dynamic Models written by Christian Gourieroux and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Christian Gourieroux and Alain Monfort provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of modern time series econometrics. They have succeeded in synthesising in an organised and integrated way a broad and diverse literature. While the book does not assume a deep knowledge of economics, one of its most attractive features is the close attention it pays to economic models and phenomena throughout. The coverage represents a major reference tool for graduate students, researchers and applied economists. The book is divided into four sections. Section one gives a detailed treatment of classical seasonal adjustment or smoothing methods. Section two provides a thorough coverage of various mathematical tools. Section three is the heart of the book, and is devoted to a range of important topics including causality, exogeneity shocks, multipliers, cointegration and fractionally integrated models. The final section describes the main contribution of filtering and smoothing theory to time series econometric problems.
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Download or read book Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy written by Germán Gutiérrez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We combine a structural model with cross-sectional micro data to identify the causes and consequences of rising concentration in the US economy. Using asset prices and industry data, we estimate realized and anticipated shocks that drive entry and concentration. We validate our approach by showing that the model-implied entry shocks correlate with independently constructed measures of entry regulations and M&As. We conclude that entry costs have risen in the U.S. over the past 20 years and have depressed capital and consumption by about seven percent.
Download or read book Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles written by Jonathan McCathy and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book S S Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium written by Jonas D. M. Fisher and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the aggregate implications of (S, s) inventory policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate uncertainty. Firms in the model's retail sector face idiosyncratic demand risk, and (S, s) inventory policies are optimal because of fixed order costs. The distribution of inventory holdings affects the aggregate outcome in two ways: variation inthe decision to order and variation in the rate of sale through the pricing decisions of retailers. We find that both mechanisms must operate to reconcile observations that orders are more volatile than, and inventory investment is positively correlated with, sales, while remaining consistent with other salient business cycle characteristics. The model exhibits strong amplification for some shocks and persistence to a limited extent.
Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
