Download or read book The Role of Credit Aggregates and Asset Prices in the Transmission Mechanism written by Sylvia Kaufmann and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions. For the euro area, we find a regime which is correlated to the business cycle and which captures periods of very low real credit growth at the end ofrecessions. However, during this regime credit markets and asset price markets do notimpede economic recovery. In the other regime, we do find a procyclical effect of credit andasset price shocks on GDP. Shocks in both variables explain each about 20% of GDP's forecast error variance after four years. Credit shocks have a positive effect on inflation and explain about 35% of the forecast error variance, which confirms that credit aggregates contain information about the monetary stance. The effect of asset price shocks on inflationis insignificant and their share in explaining the forecast error variance negligible. For the US, regime 1 captures periods of stable GDP growth, and low and stable inflation, combined with accelerating asset prices. We find procyclical effects of credit and asset price shocks onGDP only in regime 2. Shocks in both variables explain about the same share (20%) of GDP forecast error variance, whereby the share explained by asset price shocks is about two anda half times larger than in regime 1. Shocks to credit and asset prices have no significant effect on CPI and explain each about 10% of its forecast error variance in both regimes. This is consistent with the view that monetary policy may achieve price stability without necessarily achieving financial stability.
Download or read book The Role of Credit Aggregates and Asset Prices in the Transmission Mechanism written by Sylvia Kaufmann and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyse the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy using a Markov switching vector autoregression. While we confirm the existence of different regimes, we find no evidence of financial imbalances coming from mutually reinforcing effects of lending and asset prices in the euro area. In the USA, on the contrary, there is some evidence for reinforcing effects between asset prices and lending. Moreover, it turns out that in the USA asset prices are important determinants of GDP, while in the euro area lending is an important determinant of inflation.
Download or read book Asset Prices Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle written by Mr.Garry J. Schinasi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-03 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The business cycle in several industrial countries during the period 1989-1993 was different from previous post World War II business cycles in important ways. This paper describes the unique character of the recent cycle, examines important underlying structural and macroeconomic factors, and discusses why these unique features emerged. Although many of the structural changes were partly responsible for the overshooting of asset prices and private debt levels, the extreme overshooting could not have occurred without overexpansionary monetary and fiscal policies. The paper examines why inflationary pressures were allowed to accumulate and then discusses a number of lessons for conducting economic policy in the 1990s. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the authors) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Download or read book Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The housing market is of central concern to monetary policy makers. To achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, monetary policy makers must understand the role that housing plays in the monetary transmission mechanism if they are to set policy instruments appropriately. In this paper, I examine what we know about the role of housing in the monetary transmission mechanism and then explore the implications of this knowledge for the conduct of monetary policy. I begin with a theoretical and empirical review of the main housing-related channels of the transmission mechanism. These channels include the ways interest rates directly influence the user cost of housing capital, expectations of future house-price movements, and housing supply; and indirectly influence the real economy through standard wealth effects from house prices, balance sheet, credit-channel effects on consumer spending, and balance sheet, credit-channel effects on housing demand. I then consider the interaction of financial stability with the monetary transmission mechanism, and discuss the ways in which the housing sector might be a source of financial instability, and whether such instability could affect the ability of a central bank to stabilize the overall macroeconomy. I conclude with a discussion of two key policy issues. First, how can monetary policy makers deal with the uncertainty with regard to housing-related monetary transmission mechanisms? And second, how can monetary policy best respond to fluctuations in asset prices, especially house prices, and to possible asset-price bubbles?
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Money and Asset Prices in Boom and Bust written by Tim Congdon and published by Iea. This book was released on 2005 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By considering recent and historical events such as the Great Depression, episodes of boom and bust in the UK, and the malaise in Japan in the 1990s and the early 21st century, monetary economist Tim Congdon is able to show how monetary policy affects both financial markets and the real economy. In all these episodes, fluctuations in money supply growth led to booms or busts in financial markets and were associated with turbulence in the price level and in output and employment. The crucial linkages between monetary policy and financial markets, argues the author, involve broad money, not narrow money. Non-bank financial institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies, play a critical role in transmitting fluctuations in money growth to asset prices. This monograph is an important contribution to the crucial debate on the role of monetary aggregates in setting monetary policy. Congdon's argument, that ignoring monetary aggregates can lead to profound instability in the real economy, is compelling.
Download or read book Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community written by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Download or read book An Anatomy of Credit Booms written by Mr.Marco Terrones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.
Download or read book Exploring Aggregate Asset Price Fluctuations Across Countries written by C. E. V. Borio and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Transmission Mechanism Theory of Monetary Policy TMTM on Real Economies written by Frederick Anning and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy is undeniably an effective tool in global financial systems; that notwithstanding it sometimes comes with unanticipated consequences. For there to be a successful monetary policy arrangement in place, there is the need for policymakers and or regulators to have a precise assessment of the timing and the result of such policies within the economy. The transmission mechanism theory as a tool that defines how policy variations in nominal money stock or short-term interest rate affect real economic variables not limited to employment as well as aggregate output. The theory of transmission mechanism comes through several channels including the interest rate, exchange rate, asset price, credit as well as the expectation channels. This article assesses and analyzes the various channels in the theory.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets written by Ms.Deniz Igan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded data set, including sectoral balance sheet variables, we show that the balance sheets of various economic agents act as important links in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Balance sheets of financial intermediaries, such as commercial banks, asset-backed-security issuers and, to a lesser extent, security brokers and dealers, shrink in response to monetary tightening, while money market fund assets grow. The balance sheet effects are comparable in magnitude to the traditional interest rate channel. However, their economic significance in the run-up to the recent financial crisis was small. Large increases in interest rates would have been needed to avert a rapid rise of house prices and an unsustainable expansion of mortgage credit, suggesting an important role for macroprudential policies.
Download or read book Monetary Economics written by Steven Durlauf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Download or read book Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit written by Mr.Fabian Valencia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, increases in uncertainty reduce the supply of credit, more so for banks with lower levels of capitalization. These results are weaker for large banks, and are robust to controlling for the lending and capital channels of monetary policy, to different measures of uncertainty, and to breaking the dataset in subsamples. Quantitatively, uncertainty shocks are almost as important as monetary policy ones with regards to the effects on the supply of credit.
Download or read book The Balance sheet Transmission Channel of Monetary Policy written by José M. González Mínguez and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trabajo que investiga el papel de la posición financiera de los agentes privados en la transmisión de la política monetaria en España y Alemania. Hasta qué punto los tipos de interés oficiales pueden afectar al mercado de valores y ciertos instrumentos financieros influir en el gasto, precios, demanda actual y futura o demanda nacional y extranjera.
Download or read book Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007 09 written by Tobias Adrian and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. The financial crisis of 2007-09 highlighted the changing role of financial institutions and the growing importance of the ¿shadow banking system,¿ which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are tied closely to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. This report describes the changing nature of financial intermediation in the market-based financial system, charts the course of the recent financial crisis, and outlines the policy responses that have been implemented by the Fed. Reserve and other central banks. Charts and tables.
