Download or read book The Relationship Between the Future Oil Price and European Stock Markets written by Siobhán Catherine O'Connell and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Oil Prices Stock Markets and Firm Performance written by Miramir Bagirov and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the understanding of the relationship between oil prices, stock markets and financial performance of oil and gas firms over the past decade. Firstly it studies the impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in Europe. Secondly, it examines the volatility spillovers between oil and European stock markets. As oil price changes do not equally affect all industries, the study conducts both market-level and sector-level analysis. Thirdly, it examines the impact of crude oil price changes on the financial performance measure of oil and gas firms, both listed and unlisted, from the Western European region.The findings show existence of the one-way directional relationship between oil and most of the European sector stock markets. Furthermore, the results indicate volatility spillovers between returns in oil price and stock markets. It was found that crude oil prices significantly and positively impact the performance of listed oil and gas firms in Western Europe. In the case with unlisted firms, the results suggest existence of other factors that have an impact on their performance. The geopolitical crisis (2014) negatively affected the financial performance of both listed and unlisted firms. On the other hand, financial performance of only listed oil and gas firms was negatively influenced by the global financial crisis (2008-2009).

Download or read book Research on the Volatility of Oil Futures and European Stock Markets written by Dexiang Mei and published by Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. . This book was released on 2020-08-13 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the futures market is an important part of modern financial markets, the futures market volatility is an important part of the theory of financial markets research.

Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Behavior written by Jung Wook Park and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation analyze the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market for the US and 13 European countries with monthly data from 1986.1-2005.12. Three countries (Denmark, Norway and the UK) among 13 European countries are oil exporting countries. Unrestricted multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) with 4 variables (interest rates, real oil price changes, industrial production and real stock returns) is estimated as well as impulse response function and variance decomposition. With regard to impact of oil price shocks on the stock market, in most oil importing countries oil price shocks have significantly negative effect on the stock market in the same month or in one month, while among oil exporting countries only Norway shows a significantly positive response of real stock returns to oil price shocks. Comparing the impacts of oil price shocks and interest rate (monetary) shocks on the stock market, in most oil importing countries oil price shocks have a greater impact than interest rate shocks, except for a few countries where monetary policy responds systemically to oil price shocks by raising interest rates, which leads to a decline in real stock returns. Therefore, taking into account the response of monetary policy to oil price shocks, oil prices play a crucial role in the stock market of oil importing countries. On the contrary, in oil exporting countries oil price shocks have a smaller impact on the stock market than interest rate shocks, and monetary policy does not respond to the oil price shocks. According to the literature, oil price shocks have an asymmetric effect on economic activity and the stock market in that oil price increases have a greater impact than oil price decreases. However, in this dissertation, the asymmetric pattern is a little different. In the sub-sample period (1996.5-2005.12) when oil price increases more frequently than oil price decreases and the average magnitude of oil price increases is smaller than that of oil price decreases, stock markets in most countries are more influenced by oil price decreases than oil price increases in the variance decomposition analysis. In particular, statistically significant evidence at the 5% level is found that oil price decreases have a greater impact on real stock returns than oil price increases after the mid 1990's in the US.

Download or read book An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics written by Ramazan Gençay and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2001-10-12 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics presents a unified view of filtering techniques with a special focus on wavelet analysis in finance and economics. It emphasizes the methods and explanations of the theory that underlies them. It also concentrates on exactly what wavelet analysis (and filtering methods in general) can reveal about a time series. It offers testing issues which can be performed with wavelets in conjunction with the multi-resolution analysis. The descriptive focus of the book avoids proofs and provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and nonparametric filtering methods. Examples and empirical applications will show readers the capabilities, advantages, and disadvantages of each method. The first book to present a unified view of filtering techniques Concentrates on exactly what wavelets analysis and filtering methods in general can reveal about a time series Provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and non-parametric filtering methods

Download or read book 6th International Finance Conference on Financial Crisis and Governance written by Mondher Bellalah and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2011-08-08 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial markets, the banking system, and the real estate, commodity and energy markets have, since 2007, been experiencing higher integration, more volatility and have undergone several shocks. More coordination is needed between G20 and market authorities. Regulators, banking supervision agencies and politicians are worried about economic growth and financial crisis. This book covers seven aspects related to financial economic issues, along with some connected topics. The first covers risk assessment, corporate governance and value creation through an appropriate risk management system. The second covers international investments, market correlation, institutional holdings and market reactions during crisis. The third part is devoted to empirical and quantitative analysis of the observed economics and finance issues. The fourth part is devoted to the role of debt in financial crisis and its impact on financial markets and the world economy. The fifth part is devoted to debt policy, free cash flows and the structure of governance. The sixth part deals with management control and the importance of communication. The last part covers Islamic finance as an alternative to conventional finance for the debt solution, the importance of the energy sector and the role of financial innovations.

Download or read book Oil and Stock Price Returns written by Stavros Antonios Degiannakis and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The time-varying correlation between oil prices returns and European industrial sector indices returns, considering the origin of the oil price shock, is investigated. A time-varying multivariate heteroskedastic framework is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from 10 European sectors. The contemporaneous correlations suggest that the relationship between sector indices and oil prices change over time and they are industry specific. In addition, the supply-side oil price shocks result in low to moderate positive correlation levels, the precautionary demand oil price shocks lead to almost zero correlation levels, whereas the aggregate demand oil price shocks generate significant changes in the correlation levels (either positive or negative). Both the origin of the oil price shock and the type of industry are important determinants of the correlation level between industrial sectors' returns and oil prices. Prominent among the results is the fact that during the financial crisis of 2008 some sectors were providing diversification opportunities to investors dealing with the crude oil market.

Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Download or read book The Nexus Between the Oil Price and Stock Market written by Sakib Bin Amin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The link between stock market prices and oil prices has drawn considerable attention in recent decades because the risk and uncertainties associated with oil price volatility affect investor's portfolios, particularly, those investors seeking to make optimal portfolio allocations. This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the stock market index in South Asia. Based on a sample of four countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for the period 1997-2017, we use the nonlinear Autoregressive distributed model estimated by Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. We show that there is a positive relationship between the world oil price and stock market index; and that the response of stock market index to positive and negative oil price shocks are asymmetric. Counter to prior research in developing countries, our findings imply that higher oil prices in the world market stimulate stock prices which suggests that the stock markets in the South Asian region do not follow the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for which the shocks in the crude oil market are not rationally signaled in the financial market. Another plausible justification of this movement in the same direction, as explained by Bernanke (2016), is that both oil price and stock prices are reacting to a change in some common underlying factor, which he calls the global aggregate demand and market risk aversion.

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Download or read book Co movement Between Oil Prices and Stock Markets written by Danilo Pavlićević and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever since crude oil became a lifeline to the world economy, there is no doubt that oil is the most traded commodity in the world’s stock markets. There have been numerous articles and research papers written about the relationship between oil prices and stock markets, and the correlation between the two. Vast majority of them have shown that there is a correlation between them, and that changes in one affect the other. However, very few have examined the determinants of co-movements between oil prices and stock markets using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. This thesis examines determinants of co-movements between three oil importing countries stock market indices, as well as three oil exporting countries stock indices and the crude oil prices. What makes this study relevant is that it is not only examining stock indices of randomly selected countries, but it shows indices of three chosen oil importing and oil exporting countries. For the purpose of this research the oil importing countries used to demonstrate the effects in changes in determinants of co-movements between oil prices and stock markets are USA, China, and Germany. Each is chosen to represent certain parts of the world. For the oil exporting countries, we excluded countries whose entire GDP or at least huge portion of it, is only consistent of oil exports. Therefore, Norway, the European largest oil exporter, Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and Canada, largest North American oil exporter, are taken in order to reflect the effects of changes in determinants of co-movements in their respective stock markets. Economic policy uncertainty Index (EPU), Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the exchange rate between US dollar and all the other countries’ currencies. These are the factors affecting both oil prices and stock markets. EPU Index shows how often do national newspaper articles in a certain country write about issues pertaining to the economy uncertainty and policy-related matters. When it comes to GPR Index, it is based on measuring the frequency of words related to geopolitical tensions in leading international newspapers. The US dollar is the world’s most important currency; therefore, all the other countries in the world strive to maintain steady exchange rate between the US dollar and currencies of their own. By using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, this study will show the effects of each determinant on stock markets of US, Germany, China, Russia, Norway, and Canada.

Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Stock Markets written by Stelios Markoulis and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns for the G7 and the BRIC countries for the period 1991-2016 using co-integration and a vector error correction model. Results reveal that there is no long-run relationship between oil prices and the stock market indices of the G7 countries. However, they also reveal that there is a long-run relationship between oil prices and the stock market indices of three out of the four BRIC countries (Brazil, China and Russia). This result appears to be broadly aligned with the idea that over the past quarter of a century emerging countries have been more exposed to oil prices (either as producers or consumers) than developed ones. Furthermore, from an investments' and international portfolio management perspective, it seems that there might be benefits from diversification when holding the stock market index of a G7 country or India and oil assets since these appear to be segmented. On the other hand, such benefits might not be applicable in the case of the stock markets of Brazil, China or Russia and oil assets as these seem to be integrated.

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current issues in macroeconomics.

Download or read book Short Term Influence of the Oil Price on Stock Prices from the Bucharest Stock Exchange written by Razvan Stefanescu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decades, several studies revealed the significant impact of oil price variation not only on the real economic activity but also on the financial markets evolutions. Such relations are affected by some particularities of the national economies. In this paper we examine the impact of the oil price on the Romanian capital market evolution from January 2000 to February 2013. In our analysis we employ daily values of the Brent oil price and of BET C, one of the main indexes of Bucharest Stock Exchange. A GARCH model allows us to investigate the effects of the oil price fluctuations on returns and volatility of the stock prices. We split our samples of data in three sub-samples in order to capture the influence of three major processes that affected the Romanian economy: the last stage of transition to a capitalist system, the transformations induced by the adhesion to European Union and the global crisis. Our results revealed significant changes on the relation between oil price and stock prices that occurred during these three periods of time.

Download or read book Study of the Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Markets Indices and Macroeconomic Factors in OPEC Countries and Top Economies and the Prediction of Future Oil Prices written by Junyu Xiang and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Oil Prices and the Stock Markets written by Sajjadur Rahman and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use the highest frequency data that have ever been studied before to investigate the relationship between the price of oil and stock market returns. In the context of a bivariate (identified using heteroscedasticity in daily data) structural VAR in stock market returns and the change in the price of oil, we find evidence that positive oil price shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on stock market returns. Our results are robust to the use of different types of market returns, including aggregate and disaggregate U.S. market returns, aggregate and disaggregate U.S. excess returns, returns of the energy sector, returns of the major oil and gas companies, and global, eurozone, and some country specific stock market returns. They are also robust to the use of weekly data.

Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.