Download or read book The Predictive Power of the Dividend Risk Premium written by Davide E. Avino and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about (i) the expected dividend growth rate and (ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence of dividend growth and stock market return predictability both in- and out-of-sample. Economically, a market timing investor who accounts for the time varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02 % per year.
Download or read book Dividend Yields are Equity Risk Premiums written by Michael S. Rozeff and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article presents evidence that dividend yields are directly related to and predict future stock returns: The higher the yield, the higher the stock return. The paper uses the constant dividend growth model and the subsidiary Golden Rule of Accumulation view that real long-term growth equals the real rate of interest in order to show that the dividend yield is directly related to the risk premium. A predictive test shows that dividend yields provide superior predictions of equity risk premiums in terms of lower bias, lower mean square error and lower mean absolute error as compared with the method of using historical realized returns.
Download or read book Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios written by Amit Goyal and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our paper reexamines the forecasting regressions which predict annual aggregate stock market returns net of the risk-free rate with lagged aggregate dividend-yield ratios and dividend-price ratios. Prior to 1990, the conditional dividend yield could reliably outperform the historical equity premium mean in predicting future equity premia in-sample . But our paper shows that the dividend ratios could not outperform the prevailing unconditional mean out-of-sample , plus any residual power was directly related to only two years, 1974 and 1975. As of 2000, even this in-sample predictive ability has disappeared. Our paper also documents changes in the time-series processes of the dividends themselves and shows that an increasing persistence of dividend-price ratio is largely responsible for weak stock return predictability
Download or read book The Conditional Relationship between the Equity Risk Premium and the Dividend Price Ratio written by Eric Engstrom and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dividend price ratio is among the most commonly proposed instruments for forecasting equity returns. Despite an ongoing debate struggling to establish the efficacy of regressions using the dividend price ratio to measure the conditional equity premium, such affine functions are now pervasive in literatures that use the conditional equity premium as an input. In this paper, I point out that economic models of risk speak directly to the properties of predictability regression statistics.Specifically, I demonstrate that in reasonable theoretical settings, predictability regressions may be badly misspecified. In particular, they may have low power to identify the conditional and nonlinear form of predictability suggested by structural treatments of risk. Additionally, simple predictive regressions produce estimates of the conditional risk premium which may be very different from the true values. Moreover,accommodating the implied instability in the relationship between the dividend price ratio and the equity risk premium can substantially improve out of sample forecasting power.
Download or read book Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields written by William N. Goetzmann and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields written by William N. Goetzmann and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predicting the Equity Premium with the Demand for Gold Coins and Bars written by Dirk G. Baur and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we propose novel predictor variables for forecasting stock market returns. We investigate the predictive power of the demand for gold coins and bars as a proxy for the risk premium consistent with the safe haven property of gold. The gold demand variables reflect the behaviour of retail investors and thus also represent a new class of predictors. Our analysis shows that the demand for gold is positively correlated with future stock returns and enhances the predictive power of the dividend yield and other variables.
Download or read book Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields written by Francis J. Breedon and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The predictability of returns with regime shifts in consumption and dividend growth written by Anisha Ghosh and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different time-series processes in the two regimes. In linear predictive regressions over 1930-2009, the market return is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 11.7% if the probability of being in the first regime exceeds 50%; and dividend growth is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 28.3% if the probability of being in the second regime exceeds 50%. The model-implied state variables perform significantly better at predicting the equity, size, and value premia, the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates, and the variance of the market return than linear regressions with the market price-dividend ratio and risk free rate as predictive variables.
Download or read book Dividend Risk and the Cross Section of Equity Risk Premia written by Antonio Picca and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I study a novel data set of short-term dividend futures contracts for individual stocks. I combine this data with dividend forecasts from equity research analysts to construct a model-free measure of short-term equity risk premia. I provide the first description of the cross-section of risk premia on short-maturity dividend claims. My data on risk premia for cash flows at a specific horizon (one to two years) provide a more tractable setting for understanding the differences in asset pricing across firms compared to standard equity returns, which mixes risk premia for cash flows at infinitely many maturities. The first empirical fact that emerges is a strong positive association between dividend risk and risk premia for short maturity claims. This contrasts with well-known "low risk" anomalies for standard equity. Specifically, I find that firms with high dividend volatility have (i) higher risk premia, (ii) a strongly pro-cyclical slope in their term structure of risk premia, and (iii) an inverse risk-return relation in realized stock returns. Lastly, I develop an asset-pricing model with heterogeneity in dividend volatility and time-varying market price of risk that explains my empirical results.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
Download or read book Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets written by François M. Longin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Download or read book Knowledge Based Systems written by Rajendra Akerkar and published by Jones & Bartlett Publishers. This book was released on 2009-08-25 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a system that uses artificial intelligence techniques in problem-solving processes to support human decision-making, learning, and action. Ideal for advanced-undergraduate and graduate students, as well as business professionals, this text is designed to help users develop an appreciation of KBS and their architecture and understand a broad variety of knowledge-based techniques for decision support and planning. It assumes basic computer science skills and a math background that includes set theory, relations, elementary probability, and introductory concepts of artificial intelligence. Each of the 12 chapters is designed to be modular, providing instructors with the flexibility to model the book to their own course needs. Exercises are incorporated throughout the text to highlight certain aspects of the material presented and to simulate thought and discussion. A comprehensive text and resource, Knowledge-Based Systems provides access to the most current information in KBS and new artificial intelligences, as well as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and soft systems.
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
