Download or read book The Predictioneer s Game written by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
Download or read book The Dictator s Handbook written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2011-09-27 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the theory of political survival, particularly in cases of dictators and despotic governments, arguing that political leaders seek to stay in power using any means necessary, most commonly by attending to the interests of certain coalitions.
Download or read book Upgrading Leadership s Crystal Ball written by Jeffrey C. Bauer and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership’s Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future—forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today’s rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers’ understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership’s Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.
Download or read book European Community Decision Making written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This pathbreaking book illuminates the politics of issue resolution within the European community by evaluating and comparing competing models of decision making across twenty-two policy issues. Written by American and Dutch scholars in the field, the book will be of great interest to students of comparative politics, public policy analysts, mathematic modelers, and all those concerned with the development of the European Community. Contributors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Samuel Eldersveld, Jacek Kugler, A. F. K. Organski, Roy Pierce, Frans N. Stokman, Jan M. M. Van den Bos, Reinier Van Costen, John H. P. Williams
Download or read book The Spoils of War written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's striking how many of the presidents Americans venerate--Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy, to name a few--oversaw some of the republic's bloodiest years. Perhaps it's because they looked out for important political causes. Or maybe they just looked out for themselves. This ... book puts some of America's greatest leaders under the microscope, [positing that] their calls for war, usually remembered as brave and noble, were in fact selfish and convenient"--
Download or read book The Invention of Power written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the tradition of Why Nations Fail, this book solves one of the great puzzles of history: Why did the West become the most powerful civilization in the world? Western exceptionalism—the idea that European civilizations are freer, wealthier, and less violent—is a widespread and powerful political idea. It has been a source of peace and prosperity in some societies, and of ethnic cleansing and havoc in others. Yet in The Invention of Power, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita draws on his expertise in political maneuvering, deal-making, and game theory to present a revolutionary new theory of Western exceptionalism: that a single, rarely discussed event in the twelfth century changed the course of European and world history. By creating a compromise between churches and nation-states that, in effect, traded money for power and power for money, the 1122 Concordat of Worms incentivized economic growth, facilitated secularization, and improved the lot of the citizenry, all of which set European countries on a course for prosperity. In the centuries since, countries that have had a similar dynamic of competition between church and state have been consistently better off than those that have not. The Invention of Power upends conventional thinking about European culture, religion, and race and presents a persuasive new vision of world history.
Download or read book Reality Media written by Jay David Bolter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2021-11-16 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How augmented reality and virtual reality are taking their places in contemporary media culture alongside film and television. T This book positions augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) firmly in contemporary media culture. The authors view AR and VR not as the latest hyped technologies but as media—the latest in a series of what they term “reality media,” taking their places alongside film and television. Reality media inserts a layer of media between us and our perception of the world; AR and VR do not replace reality but refashion a reality for us. Each reality medium mediates and remediates; each offers a new representation that we implicitly compare to our experience of the world in itself but also through other media. The authors show that as forms of reality media emerge, they not only chart a future path for media culture, but also redefine media past. With AR and VR in mind, then, we can recognize their precursors in eighteenth-century panoramas and the Broadway lights of the 1930s. A digital version of Reality Media, available through the book’s website, invites readers to visit a series of virtual rooms featuring interactivity, 3-D models, videos, images, and texts that explore the themes of the book.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Kinds of Power written by James Hillman and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the boldest expose on the nature of power since Machiavelli, celebrated Jungian therapist James Hillman shows how the artful leader uses each of two dozen kinds of power with finesse and subtlety. Power, we often forget, has many faces, many different expressions. "Empowerment," writes best-selling Jungian analyst James Hillman, "comes from understanding the widest spectrum of possibilities for embracing power." If food means only meat and potatoes, your body suffers from your ignorance. When your idea of food expands, so does your strength. So it is with power. "James Hillman," says Robert Bly, "is the most lively and original psychologist we have had in America since William James." In Kinds Of Power, Hillman addresses himself for the first time to a subject of great interest to business people. He gives much needed substance to the subject by showing us a broad experience of power, rooted in the body, the rnind, and the emotions, rather than the customary narrow interpretation that simply equates power with strength. Hillman's "anatomy" of power explores two dozen expressions of power every artful leader must understand and use, including: the language of power, control, influence, resistance, leadership, prestige, authority, exhibitionism, charisma, ambition, reputation, fearsomeness, tyranny, purism, subtle power, growth, and efficiency.
Download or read book The Half Life of Facts written by Samuel Arbesman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-08-27 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New insights from the science of science Facts change all the time. Smoking has gone from doctor recommended to deadly. We used to think the Earth was the center of the universe and that the brontosaurus was a real dinosaur. In short, what we know about the world is constantly changing. Samuel Arbesman shows us how knowledge in most fields evolves systematically and predictably, and how this evolution unfolds in a fascinating way that can have a powerful impact on our lives. He takes us through a wide variety of fields, including those that change quickly, over the course of a few years, or over the span of centuries.
Download or read book The Death of Ben Linder written by Joan Kruckewitt and published by Seven Stories Press. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1987, the death of Ben Linder, the first American killed by President Reagan's "freedom fighters" -- the U.S.-backed Nicaraguan Contras -- ignited a firestorm of protest and debate. In this landmark first biography of Linder, investigative journalist Joan Kruckewitt tells his story. In the summer of 1983, a 23-year-old American named Ben Linder arrived in Managua with a unicycle and a newly earned degree in engineering. In 1986, Linder moved from Managua to El Cuá, a village in the Nicaraguan war zone, where he helped form a team to build a hydroplant to bring electricity to the town. He was ambushed and killed by the Contras the following year while surveying a stream for a possible hydroplant. In 1993, Kruckewitt traveled to the Nicaraguan mountains to investigate Linder's death. In July 1995. she finally located and interviewed one of the men who killed Ben Linder, a story that became the basis for a New Yorker feature on Linder's death. Linder's story is a portrait of one idealist who died for his beliefs, as well as a picture of a failed foreign policy, vividly exposing the true dimensions of a war that forever marked the lives of both Nicaraguans and Americans.
Download or read book A Little History of Economics written by Niall Kishtainy and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively, inviting account of the history of economics, told through events from ancient to modern times and the ideas of great thinkers in the field What causes poverty? Are economic crises inevitable under capitalism? Is government intervention in an economy a helpful approach or a disastrous idea? The answers to such basic economic questions matter to everyone, yet the unfamiliar jargon and math of economics can seem daunting. This clear, accessible, and even humorous book is ideal for young readers new to economics and for all readers who seek a better understanding of the full sweep of economic history and ideas. Economic historian Niall Kishtainy organizes short, chronological chapters that center on big ideas and events. He recounts the contributions of key thinkers including Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, and others, while examining topics ranging from the invention of money and the rise of agrarianism to the Great Depression, entrepreneurship, environmental destruction, inequality, and behavioral economics. The result is a uniquely enjoyable volume that succeeds in illuminating the economic ideas and forces that shape our world.
Download or read book The Logic of Political Survival written by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005-01-14 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.
Download or read book Scrambles in the Canadian Rockies 3rd Edition written by Alan Kane and published by Rocky Mountain Books Ltd. This book was released on 2016 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation Armed with first-hand information, Alan Kane describes over 170 scrambles in a clear, concise format. This includes equipment needed, when to go, how to get there, where to park and what to expect as you work your way to the summit. Photos showing the ascent line complement descriptions that include historical trivia, origins of placenames and summit views. Routes range from off-trail hiking suitable for strong hikers to challenging routes at the low end of technical climbing where use of specific handholds is required on steep, airy terrain.
Download or read book China s Futures written by Daniel C. Lynch and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's Futures cuts through the sometimes confounding and unfounded speculation of international pundits and commentators to provide readers with an important yet overlooked set of complex views concerning China's future: views originating within China itself. Daniel Lynch seeks to answer the simple but rarely asked question: how do China's own leaders and other elite figures assess their country's future? Many Western social scientists, business leaders, journalists, technocrats, analysts, and policymakers convey confident predictions about the future of China's rise. Every day, the business, political, and even entertainment news is filled with stories and commentary not only on what is happening in China now, but also what Western experts confidently think will happen in the future. Typically missing from these accounts is how people of power and influence in China itself imagine their country's developmental course. Yet the assessments of elites in a still super-authoritarian country like China should make a critical difference in what the national trajectory eventually becomes. In China's Futures, Lynch traces the varying possible national trajectories based on how China's own specialists are evaluating their country's current course, and his book is the first to assess the strengths and weaknesses of "predictioneering" in Western social science as applied to China. It does so by examining Chinese debates in five critical issue-areas concerning China's trajectory: the economy, domestic political processes and institutions, communication and the Internet (arrival of the "network society"), foreign policy strategy, and international soft-power (cultural) competition.
Download or read book Triumph Over Fear written by Jerilyn Ross and published by Bantam. This book was released on 2009-12-30 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Institute of Mental Health calls anxiety disorders the most common mental health problem in America. They are also among the most treatable. Yet tens of millions of people struggle with hidden fears and restricted lives because they have not received proper diagnosis and treatment. Triumph Over Fear combines Jerilyn Ross's firsthand account of overcoming her own disabling phobia with inspiring case histories of recovery from other forms of anxiety, including panic disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder; an post-traumatic stress disorder. State-of-the-art information is combined with powerful self-help techniques, together with clear indications of when to seek additional professional help and/or medication. Also included is the latest research on anxiety disorders in children, plus advice for dealing with family members and employers.
Download or read book Don t Bullsh t Yourself written by Jon Taffer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2018-03-13 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New York Times Bestseller and Wall Street Journal Bestseller! Bar Rescue's Jon Taffer presents a new guide to getting what you want in life and business--to stop making excuses so you can get back to winning. During his many years as an entrepreneur, consultant, and star of the Paramount Network's hit show Bar Rescue, Jon Taffer has witnessed the destruction that results when people bullsh*t themselves. Excuses are the root cause of nearly every business and personal problem, but fortunately, Jon knows how to fix your excuse habit for good. This book is almost as good as having Jon in your face on Bar Rescue, telling you the hard truths you've been avoiding. Don't Bullsh*t Yourself! is Jon Taffer's brutally honest, no-nonsense guide to help you kick those excuses to the curb. If you can stop bullsh*tting yourself and address your real issues, you will gain the power to turn your life around completely. Taffer breaks excuses down into six major categories, illustrating them with real-life examples such as Marcus Luttrell, the lone survivor of a SEAL team mission in Afghanistan who barely escaped Taliban territory, and Christine King, founder and CEO of Your Best Fit, who, despite being paralyzed in a horrific boating accident, went on to build a successful fitness company. These inspiring stories, combined with Taffer's own experiences, will give you the confidence to identify and face your own excuses head-on. It's Taffer Time! Time to stop bullsh*tting yourself and start crushing it!
