Download or read book The Predicteds written by Christine Seifert and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2011 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Daphne is the new girl in town and is having trouble fitting in. At least she has Jesse--sort of. He wants to be more than "just friends," but there's something he's not telling her about his past. Something dangerous.
Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel Sarewitz and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2000-04-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The idea that predictive science can simplify the decision-making process by creating a clearer picture of the future is deeply appealing in principle, but deeply problematic in practice. Prediction offers a fascinating and wide-ranging look at the interdependent scientific, political, and social factors involved in using science-based predictions to guide policy making. Through ten detailed case studies, it explores society's efforts to generate reliable scientific information about complex natural systems and to use that information in making sound policy decisions. The book: provides an overview of predictive science from historical, scientific, political, and behavioral perspectives offers case studies of the use and misuse of scientific predictions on subjects ranging from asteroids to nuclear waste disposal proposes a practical analytical framework for the use of predictive science in setting policy recommends actions and policies that can increase the likelihood of effective decisions Contributors include Clark Chapman, Charles Herrick, William H. Hooke, Orrin Pilkey, Steve Rayner, Naomi Oreskes, Daniel Metlay, Stanley Changnon, Donald Gautier, Robert Moran, Joanne Nigg, and Thomas Stewart. Prediction is the first book to look at the numerous and varied scientific, social, and political factors involved in making and using predictions relevant to a wide range of current environmental controversies and challenges. It provides much-needed context for understanding predictions and scientific pronouncements, and is an important work for anyone concerned with interactions between science and policy making.
Download or read book Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future written by Gary Westfahl and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science fiction has always challenged readers with depictions of the future. Can the genre actually provide glimpses of the world of tomorrow? This collection of fifteen international and interdisciplinary essays examines the genre's predictions and breaks new ground by considering the prophetic functions of science fiction films as well as SF literature. Among the texts and topics examined are classic stories by Murray Leinster, C. L. Moore, and Cordwainer Smith; 2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequels, Japanese anime and Hong Kong cinema; and electronic fiction.
Download or read book Duck on a Bike written by David Shannon and published by Scholastic Inc.. This book was released on 2016-07-26 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this off-beat book perfect for reading aloud, a Caldecott Honor winner shares the story of a duck who rides a bike with hilarious results. One day down on the farm, Duck got a wild idea. “I bet I could ride a bike,” he thought. He waddled over to where the boy parked his bike, climbed on, and began to ride. At first, he rode slowly and he wobbled a lot, but it was fun! Duck rode past Cow and waved to her. “Hello, Cow!” said Duck. “Moo,” said Cow. But what she thought was, “A duck on a bike? That’s the silliest thing I’ve ever seen!” And so, Duck rides past Sheep, Horse, and all the other barnyard animals. Suddenly, a group of kids ride by on their bikes and run into the farmhouse, leaving the bikes outside. Now ALL the animals can ride bikes, just like Duck! Praise for Duck on a Bike “Shannon serves up a sunny blend of humor and action in this delightful tale of a Duck who spies a red bicycle one day and gets “a wild idea” . . . Add to all this the abundant opportunity for youngsters to chime in with barnyard responses (“M-o-o-o”; “Cluck! Cluck!”), and the result is one swell read-aloud, packed with freewheeling fun.” —Publishers Weekly “Grab your funny bone—Shannon . . . rides again! . . . A “quackerjack” of a terrific escapade.” —Kirkus Reviews
Download or read book The Road Ahead written by Bill Gates and published by Penguin Group. This book was released on 1996 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this clear-eyed, candid, and ultimately reassuring
Download or read book Is Jesus of Nazareth the Predicted Messiah written by Douglas D. Scott and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2019-02-04 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Christians in general—and preachers of prophecy in particular—attribute the fulfillment of hundreds of Old Testament messianic prophecies to Jesus of Nazareth. Often these claims arise in the uncritical environment of Christian churches or popular literature that is treating messianic prophecy. People with critical thinking abilities, and those endowed with a skeptical nature, often have key questions that remain unaddressed in such environments. These thinkers and skeptics are the people that will be most interested in this work. The primary question addressed is this: “Do critically acceptable historical-evidential reasons exist for believing that Jesus Christ is the direct fulfillment of some specific Old Testament messianic texts?” Approaching this question within a framework that eliminates any possibility of staged prophetic fulfillment, and those that may occur by mere chance or collusion, produces results that must be taken seriously. Even with these strict criteria, Jesus emerges as the only viable candidate to fulfill some of the prophecies included in this study. For other prophetic texts, the evidence is not as abundant or convincing. However, even these texts yield several minimal facts that directly impinge on New Testament claims about Jesus.
Download or read book An Inquiry into the Predicted Character of Antichrist or the Antichristianism of the Church of Rome investigated A charge delivered April 23rd 1844 etc written by John Henry BROWNE and published by . This book was released on 1844 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Predicted Stability and Permanence of Christianity Illustrated by Historic Testimony A Sermon Delivered at Salters Hall November 3 1799 to the Supporters of the Sunday evening lecture at that Place By Thomas Morgan written by Thomas Morgan (LL. D.) and published by . This book was released on 1799 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Christology of the Old Testament and a Commentary on the Predictions of the Messiah by the Prophets written by Ernst Wilhelm Hengstenberg and published by . This book was released on 1839 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Numerical Methods for the Predictions of Welding Stresses and Distortions written by V. I. Makhnenko and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 1999-10 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Download or read book A Key to the Prophecies or a concise view of the predictions contained in the Old and New Testaments etc written by David SIMPSON (Minister of Christ Church, Macclesfield.) and published by . This book was released on 1852 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A D Vine Copula Based Quantile Regression Approach for the Prediction of Heating Energy Consumption Using Historical Data for German Households written by Rochus Niemierko and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-09-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1,0, University of Augsburg, language: English, abstract: The aim of this thesis is to add to the as of yet mostly missing literature on how a D-vine copula based quantile regression model can be used to predicte the accurate level of energy consumption. Energetic retrofitting of residential buildings is poised to play an important role in the achievement of ambitious global climate targets. A prerequisite for purposeful policy-making and private investments is the accurate prediction of energy consumption. Building energy models are mostly based on engineering methods quantifying theoretical energy consumption. However, a performance gap between predicted and actual consumption has been identified in literature. Data- driven methods using historical data can potentially overcome this issue. The D-vine copula-based quantile regression model used in this study achieved very good fitting results based on a representative data set comprising 25,000 German households. The findings suggest that quantile regression increases transparency by analyzing the entire distribution of heating energy consumption for individual building characteristics. More specifically, the analyses reveal the following exemplary insights. First, for different levels of energy efficiency, the rebound effect exhibits cyclical behavior and significantly varies across quantiles. Second, very energy-conscious and energy-wasteful households are prone to more extreme rebound effects. Third, with regards to the performance gap, heating energy demand of inefficient buildings is systematically underestimated, while it is overestimated for efficient buildings. Therefore, The remainder of this thesis is organized as follows. Section 2 presents a concise categorization of building energy models. Section 3 presents existing data-driven methods used for the pre-diction of heating energy consumption in the residential sector. Next, Section 4 elaborates on vine copula-based quantile regression. This is followed by a description of the data employed in Section 5. Section 6 presents the empirical results and Section 7 provides the practical im-plications and contribution of the quantile regression approach introduced. Finally, the conclu-sions and limitations of this thesis are discussed in Section 8.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Clinical Prediction Models written by Ewout W. Steyerberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies
Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future. Vecchi and Gatti link memory and prediction to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition, relying on recent empirical data to support theoretical reflections. They propose a new model of memory functions that comprises a system devoted to prediction, based in the cerebellum and mediated by the hippocampus, and a parallel system with a major role for cortical structures and mediated by the amygdala. Although memory is often conceived as a kind of storehouse, this storehouse is constantly changing, integrating new information in a continual process of modification. In order to explain these characteristics, Vecchi and Gatti argue, we must change our interpretation of the nature and functions of the memory system.
Download or read book The Prediction written by Darren Sugrue and published by KDC Publishing. This book was released on 2013-06-30 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: **Amazon Best Seller!** Reached #4 in Thrillers & Suspense ★★★★★ 'A captivating page-turner.' DOUGLAS WOLFE Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now. Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death, only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved. Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date he predicted. One more is due to die in six days: Daniel’s ex-lover Grace. The professor draws Daniel back into the world of mathematics where he is suddenly faced with the dilemma of allowing someone he once loved to die to be one step closer to proving his thesis and enjoying a prestige he once dreamed of… Set in the vibrant cities of Dublin and Amsterdam, The Prediction is a powerful story about coping with shattered dreams, the loss of a loved one, and an illustration of just how unpredictable the human heart can be. ____________________________________________ PRAISE FOR THE PREDICTION: 'Once you get hooked, you won't want to put the book down.' ALLISON JAMES 'There is something brilliant and enticing about a novel where one of the central conflicts is that you very much want for two mutually exclusive things to happen.' ANNE DOUCETTE 'I loved this book! It was emotionally intense, suspenseful, and so very touching and beautiful at the end. I cannot remember the last time a book brought me to tears...' JUDY SCHECHTER 'First Time Author Darren Sugrue hits the mark with a 5 star novel... This book is awesome.' L. FRIER 'The ending twist was just genius... I feel this is one of the few books anyone would enjoy no matter whether you are a romantic, thriller, horror or sci-fi reader.' GADGET GIRL REVIEWS 'Filled with suspense, peppered with a bit of romance and softened by tragedy, it is one of the best crime novels I have ever read... You will not hear this from me very often: this is a must-read! Readers of all genres, unite!' ANCA, REVIEWS WITH A TWIST BLOG 'Heart pounding suspense, lost love, regret, lost, murder, betrayal, it’s all there. Mind blowing plot twists that you have to pause to process... Drop everything, send the kids outside. This is an incredible read.' DOSEOFBELLA 'You really could not ask for more in a book. It is so well written it is hard to believe that this is Darren Sugrue's first book.' ANGIE, READAHOLIC ZONE 'The story is well written, moves at a good pace, with well-developed characters and a twist I really didn’t see coming.' JAMES WALSH
Download or read book Dire Predictions written by Michael E. Mann and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents findings from the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in easy to understand language and graphics.
