Download or read book The Predictability of Monetary Policy written by Tobias Blattner and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current best practice in central banking viewsa high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to anticipate monetary policy decisions correctly over short horizons, the broader, ultimately more meaning ful concept of longer term predictability also encompasses the ability of the private sector to understand the monetary policy framework of a central bank, i.e. its objectives and systematic behaviour in reacting to different circumstances and contingencies. In this broader sense, longer-term predictability is also closely related to the credibility of the central bank. This paper reviews the main conceptual issues relating to predictability, both in its short and longer-term dimensions,and discusses how a transparent monetary policy strategy can be -and indeed has been- instrumental in achieving this purpose. This latter aspect is investigated in an overview of the empirical literature, high lighting how financial markets have been increasingly able to correctly anticipate monetary policy decisions for a number of large central banks, including the ECB. The paper also reviews several possible empirical proxies for the less-explored concept of longer-term predictability, which is inherently more diffi cult to measure.
Download or read book Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions written by Mr.Kevin Ross and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2002-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many surveys of the ECB's monetary framework emphasize the inability of financial markets to correctly predict monetary policy decisions. At the same time, these surveys of financial market participants have given relatively high marks to the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on their ability to be understood by financial markets. Against this background, this paper examines the ability of financial markets to correctly anticipate these three central bank policy decisions over the first 31⁄2 years of the ECB. The paper relies on calculations that market participants employ in anticipating policy changes and on term structure regressions that provide ex post evidence of market surprises. While the results suggest that all three central banks are broadly predictable, markets have had difficulty anticipating large changes and cuts in ECB policy interest rates. These surprises may be tied to the large number of policy meetings, particular characteristics of the EONIA money market, and the unique circumstances of the ECB. An added factor may be the absence of a consistent policy on communicating the current stance-if any-of the ECB's policy bias on the future direction of interest rates.
Download or read book Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions written by Kevin L. Ross and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Policy Predictability in the Euro Area written by Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Central Bank Transparency Private Information and the Predictability of Monetary Policy in the Financial Markets written by Menno Hugo Middeldorp and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Talking about Monetary Policy written by Alan S. Blinder and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Writing Clearly written by Mr.Martin Cihak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.
Download or read book Money and the Rule of Law written by Peter J. Boettke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contemporary monetary institutions are flawed at a foundational level. The reigning paradigm in monetary policy holds up constrained discretion as the preferred operating framework for central banks. But no matter how smart or well-intentioned are central bankers, discretionary policy contains information and incentive problems that make macroeconomic stability systematically unlikely. Furthermore, central bank discretion implicitly violates the basic jurisprudential norms of liberal democracy. Drawing on a wide body of scholarship, this volume presents a novel argument in favor of embedding monetary institutions into a rule of law framework. The authors argue for general, predictable rules to provide a sturdier foundation for economic growth and prosperity. A rule of law approach to monetary policy would remedy the flaws that resulted in misguided monetary responses to the 2007-8 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the case for true monetary rules is the first step toward creating more stable monetary institutions.
Download or read book Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile written by Mr.Andrea Pescatori and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Download or read book Background Studies for the ECB s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy written by Otmar Issing and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Policy Committees Learning and Communication written by Anke Weber and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers optimal communication by monetary policy committees in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. The main policy implications are that there may be costs to central bank communication if the public is perpetually learning about the committee's decision-making process and policy preferences. When committee members have heterogeneous policy preferences, welfare is greater under majority voting than under consensus decision-making. Furthermore, central bank communication under majority voting is more likely to be beneficial in this case. It is also shown that a chairman with stable policy preferences who carries significant weight in the monetary policy decision-making process is welfare enhancing.
Download or read book Money and the Rule of Law written by Peter J. Boettke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A novel argument that shows how rules work better than discretion when implementing monetary policy.
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Steering Money Market Rates During the Financial Crisis written by Puriya Abbassi and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis has deeply affected money markets and thus, potentially, the proper functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. Therefore, we analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in steering euro area money market rates looking at, first, the predictability of money market rates on the basis of monetary policy expectations, and second the impact of extraordinary central bank measures on money market rates. We find that during the crisis money market rates up to 12 months still respond to revisions in the expected path of future rates, even though to a lesser extent than before August 2007. We attribute part of the loss in monetary policy effectiveness to money market rates being driven by higher liquidity premia and increased uncertainty about future interest rates. Our results also indicate that the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures as of October 2008 were effective in addressing the disruptions in the euro area money market. In fact, our estimates suggest that non-standard monetary policy measures helped to lower Euribor rates by more than 80 basis points. These findings show that central banks have effective tools at hand to conduct monetary policy in times of crises.
Download or read book The Impact of Monetary Policy Communication in an Emerging Economy The Case of Indonesia written by Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-26 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the adoption of the inflation targeting framework by Bank Indonesia (BI), monetary policy communication has played an increasingly important role in BI’s policy toolkit. This paper assesses BI’s monetary policy communication from three perspectives: i) its transparency and clarity, ii) its ability to align market expectation and BI’s policy decisions (predictability), and iii) its impact on financial markets. In particular, we assess the impact of BI’s monetary policy practices by focusing on its monetary policy press releases and monetary policy reports. The results show that Bank Indonesia has made significant progress in the transparency of its communication as well as in the institutional framework to support this. Nonetheless, the results also suggest ways in which the impact of communication can be further improved, including by strengthening the clarity of policy messages, its consistency with the policy framework and the depth of the money market.
Download or read book Central Bank Communication Decision Making and Governance written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts analyze the recent emphasis on central communication as an additional policy and accountability device.
Download or read book Policymakers Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy written by Andrei Sirchenko and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Bank of Poland does not publish the Monetary Policy Council's voting records before the subsequent policy meeting. Using real-time data, this paper shows that a prompter release of the voting records could improve the predictability of policy decisions. The voting patterns reveal strong and robust predictive content even after controlling for policy bias and responses to in.ation, real activity, exchange rates and financial market information. They contain information not embedded in the spreads and moves in the market interest rates, nor in the explicit forecasts of the next policy decision made by market analysts in Reuters surveys. Moreover, the direction of policymakers' dissent explains the direction of analysts.forecast bias. These findings are based on the voting patterns only, without the knowledge of policymakers' names.
