Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Download or read book Competitive Authoritarianism written by Steven Levitsky and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-16 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a detailed study of 35 cases in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and post-communist Eurasia, this book explores the fate of competitive authoritarian regimes between 1990 and 2008. It finds that where social, economic, and technocratic ties to the West were extensive, as in Eastern Europe and the Americas, the external cost of abuse led incumbents to cede power rather than crack down, which led to democratization. Where ties to the West were limited, external democratizing pressure was weaker and countries rarely democratized. In these cases, regime outcomes hinged on the character of state and ruling party organizations. Where incumbents possessed developed and cohesive coercive party structures, they could thwart opposition challenges, and competitive authoritarian regimes survived; where incumbents lacked such organizational tools, regimes were unstable but rarely democratized.

Download or read book The Third Wave written by Samuel P. Huntington and published by University of Oklahoma Press. This book was released on 2012-09-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1974 and 1990 more than thirty countries in southern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe shifted from authoritarian to democratic systems of government. This global democratic revolution is probably the most important political trend in the late twentieth century. In The Third Wave, Samuel P. Huntington analyzes the causes and nature of these democratic transitions, evaluates the prospects for stability of the new democracies, and explores the possibility of more countries becoming democratic. The recent transitions, he argues, are the third major wave of democratization in the modem world. Each of the two previous waves was followed by a reverse wave in which some countries shifted back to authoritarian government. Using concrete examples, empirical evidence, and insightful analysis, Huntington provides neither a theory nor a history of the third wave, but an explanation of why and how it occurred. Factors responsible for the democratic trend include the legitimacy dilemmas of authoritarian regimes; economic and social development; the changed role of the Catholic Church; the impact of the United States, the European Community, and the Soviet Union; and the "snowballing" phenomenon: change in one country stimulating change in others. Five key elite groups within and outside the nondemocratic regime played roles in shaping the various ways democratization occurred. Compromise was key to all democratizations, and elections and nonviolent tactics also were central. New democracies must deal with the "torturer problem" and the "praetorian problem" and attempt to develop democratic values and processes. Disillusionment with democracy, Huntington argues, is necessary to consolidating democracy. He concludes the book with an analysis of the political, economic, and cultural factors that will decide whether or not the third wave continues. Several "Guidelines for Democratizers" offer specific, practical suggestions for initiating and carrying out reform. Huntington's emphasis on practical application makes this book a valuable tool for anyone engaged in the democratization process. At this volatile time in history, Huntington's assessment of the processes of democratization is indispensable to understanding the future of democracy in the world.

Download or read book Street Gangs written by Max G. Manwaring and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary thrust of the monograph is to explain the linkage of contemporary criminal street gangs (that is, the gang phenomenon or third generation gangs) to insurgency in terms f the instability it wreaks upon government and the concomitant challenge to state sovereignty. Although there are differences between gangs and insurgents regarding motives and modes of operations, this linkage infers that gang phenomena are mutated forms of urban insurgency. In these terms, these "new" nonstate actors must eventually seize political power in order to guarantee the freedom of action and the commercial environment they want. The common denominator that clearly links the gang phenomenon to insurgency is that the third generation gangs' and insurgents' ultimate objective is to depose or control the governments of targeted countries. As a consequence, the "Duck Analogy" applies. Third generation gangs look like ducks, walk like ducks, and act like ducks - a peculiar breed, but ducks nevertheless! This monograph concludes with recommendations for the United States and other countries to focus security and assistance responses at the strategic level. The intent is to help leaders achieve strategic clarity and operate more effectively in the complex politically dominated, contemporary global security arena.

Download or read book Paths for Cuba written by Scott Morgenstern and published by University of Pittsburgh Press. This book was released on 2019-02-02 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Cuban model of communism has been an inspiration—from both a positive and negative perspective—for social movements, political leaders, and cultural expressionists around the world. With changes in leadership, the pace of change has accelerated following decades of economic struggles. The death of Fidel Castro and the reduced role of Raúl Castro seem likely to create further changes, though what these changes look like is still unknown. For now, Cuba is opening in important ways. Cubans can establish businesses, travel abroad, access the internet, and make private purchases. Paths for Cuba examines Cuba’s internal reforms and external influences within a comparative framework. The collection includes an interdisciplinary group of scholars from around the world to explore reforms away from communism.

Download or read book Problems of Democratic Transitions in Multi Ethnic States written by Sandy Minsat and published by ibidem-Verlag / ibidem Press. This book was released on 2009-06-01 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Saw Myat Sandy’s study deals with theoretical and empirical analysis of the political transitions in former Yugoslavia and Burma, the present day Myanmar. It covers the transition period of both states from the late 1980s until present. The author examines the democratic transition in both states, where the process has been ‘unsuccessfully accomplished’, i.e. after a very promising beginning sooner or later undermined by the challenges of the transition, which threatened to reverse, what was gained by democratisation. In this dissertation, Saw Myat Sandy argues that the democratic transition in both states became an extended process of transition’ because of its multi-ethnic societies. The democratisation in former Yugoslavia led to disintegration, and in Myanmar it is proving to be an intractable one and has become almost un-resolvable to anyone’s satisfaction. Myanmar today suffers from on-going political instabilities that cause political and social fragmentations but does not demonstrate that it will fall into conventional Balkan scenarios. This dissertation analyses if Myanmar’s political transition will follow the former Yugoslavian fate by using the transition theoretical framework and highlighting the empirical facts on the problems of ethnicity and other political factors that relate to these democratisation processes. The theoretical approaches are based on the ‘democratic transition and consolidation theories’ argued by Juan J. Linz, Alfred Stepan and Samuel Huntington. As opposed to many quantitative studies, relevant dimensions will gradually appear in this qualitative case study. The theoretical perspectives that apply are equally significant and supplement each other and relate to its national experience. The study contributes to the conventional theoretical debate and aims to offer the understanding for the need to expand the link between ethnicity and political transitions in transition theories. It proposes a heuristic method to integrate the dynamic of ethnicity in political transition theories.

Download or read book Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics written by Todd Landman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on the strengths of the second edition, this highly regarded textbook continues to provide the best introduction to the strategies of comparative research in political science. Divided into three parts, the book begins by examining different methods, applying these methods to dominant issues in comparative politics using a wealth of topical examples from around the world, and then discusses the new challenges in the area. New to this edition: features explanation of regression analysis with accompanied briefing boxes new discussion of the assumptions, research design, and the use of statistics characteristic of many-country comparisons single and multi-country studies - how to compare countries and address problems of comparison, especially the principles for selecting countries new chapter on the intersection between international relations and comparative politics all chapters have been updated with new publications and research output relevant to the discussion. Balancing reader friendly features with high quality analysis makes this popular academic text essential reading for everyone interested comparative politics and research methods.

Download or read book Transitions to Democracy written by Kathryn Stoner and published by JHU Press. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fifteen case studies by scholars and practitioners demonstrate the synergy between domestic and international influences that can precipitate democratic transitions. As demonstrated by current events in Tunisia and Egypt, oppressive regimes are rarely immune to their citizens’ desire for democratic government. Of course, desire is always tempered by reality; therefore how democratic demands are made manifest is a critical source of study for both political scientists and foreign policy makers. What issues and consequences surround the fall of a government, what type of regime replaces it, and to what extent are these efforts successful? Kathryn Stoner and Michael McFaul have created an accessible book of fifteen case studies from around the world that will help students understand these complex issues. Their model builds upon Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead's classic work, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, using a rubric of four identifying factors that can be applied to each case study, making comparison relatively easy. Transitions to Democracy yields strong comparisons and insights. For instance, the study reveals that efforts led by the elite and involving the military are generally unsuccessful, whereas mass mobilization, civic groups, and new media have become significant factors in supporting and sustaining democratic actors. This collection of writings by scholars and practitioners is organized into three parts: successful transitions, incremental transitions, and failed transitions. Extensive primary research and a rubric that can be applied to burgeoning democracies offer readers valuable tools and information.

Download or read book Cuba After Castro written by Edward Gonzalez and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2004-06-29 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the end of the Castro era arrives, the successor government and the Cuban people will need to answer certain questions: How is Castro's more than four-decade rule likely to affect a post-Castro Cuba? What will be the political, social, and economic challenges Cuba will confront? What are the impediments to Cuba's economic development and democratic transition? The authors examine Castro's political legacies, Cuba's generational and racial divisions, its demographic predicament, the legacy of a centralized economy, and the need for industrial restructuring.

Download or read book Sociological Abstracts written by Leo P. Chall and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CSA Sociological Abstracts abstracts and indexes the international literature in sociology and related disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. The database provides abstracts of journal articles and citations to book reviews drawn from over 1,800+ serials publications, and also provides abstracts of books, book chapters, dissertations, and conference papers.

Download or read book Cuba written by Rex A. Hudson and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2002 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Describes and analyzes the economic, national security, political, and social systems and institutions of Cuba."--Amazon.com viewed Jan. 4, 2021.

Download or read book Inequality and Democratization written by Ben W. Ansell and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on the economic origins of democracy and dictatorship has shifted away from the impact of growth and turned toward the question of how different patterns of growth - equal or unequal - shape regime change. This book offers a new theory of the historical relationship between economic modernization and the emergence of democracy on a global scale, focusing on the effects of land and income inequality. Contrary to most mainstream arguments, Ben W. Ansell and David J. Samuels suggest that democracy is more likely to emerge when rising, yet politically disenfranchised, groups demand more influence because they have more to lose, rather than when threats of redistribution to elite interests are low.

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2018-02-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.

Download or read book Problems of Post communism written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inside the Cuban Revolution written by Julia Sweig and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sweig shatters the mythology surrounding the Cuban Revolution in a compelling revisionist history that reconsiders the revolutionary roles of Castro and Guevara and restores to a central position the leadership of the Llano. Granted unprecedented access to the classified records of Castro's 26th of July Movement's underground operatives--the only scholar inside or outside of Cuba allowed access to the complete collection in the Cuban Council of State's Office of Historic Affairs--she details the debates between Castro's mountain-based guerrilla movement and the urban revolutionaries in Havana, Santiago, and other cities.

Download or read book Political Science Abstracts written by and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 846 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1996 Supplement of Political Science Abstracts contains 10,000 carefully prepared abstracts of materials from public affairs magazines, major newspapers, professional journals, and books devoted to politics and political analysis. The organization of the proceeding volumes has been retained intact, as has the recently added list of subdisciplinary descriptors. Users of earlier volumes will be on familiar ground, while those new to Political Science Abstracts will find the instructions on page ix easy to master. CONTENTS Volume 1 (This Volume) How to Use This Supplement . ix Political Science Subdisciplinary Descriptors xi Index of Terms ............... . xiii Abstracts of Documents in This Supplement. Volume 2 Bibliographic Index to the Abstracts (ABILITY-MINNESOTA) . 821 Volume 3 Bibliographic Index to the Abstracts (MINORITY-ZULU) 1565 Author Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2119 List of Periodicals Abstracted in This Supplement. 2121 HOW TO USE THIS SUPPLEMENT Three simple steps are all that are needed to introduce the user to this easily accessible indexing system. STEP 1: Turn to the Index of Terms and locate as many terms as possible that deal with your subject. If you are interested in coverage of a more generic nature, you may instead turn to the next page, where key descriptors are listed that are associated with the major subject areas in political science and with their subdivisions. Note that the index includes methodological as well as topical terms. Numerical listings (e.g., 24TH/PAR/C) are located at the end of the alphabetical listing.