Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation written by G. Hondroyiannis and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specifies a relationship between inflation and a forcing variable and the current period's expectation of future inflation. Most empirical estimates of the NKPC, typically based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, have found a significant role for lagged inflation, producing a “hybrid” NKPC. Using U.S. quarterly data, this paper examines whether the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC might be due to the spurious outcome of specification biases. Like previous investigators, we employ GMM estimation and, like those investigators, we find a significant effect for lagged inflation. We also use time varying coefficient (TVC) estimation, a procedure that allows us to directly confront specification biases and spurious relationships. Using three separate measures of expected inflation, we find strong support for the view that, under TVC estimation, the coefficient on expected inflation is near unity and that the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC is spurious.

Download or read book New Tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Jeremy Bay Rudd and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation a Case of Spurious Correlation George Hondroyiannis P A V B Swamy George S Tavlas written by George Hondroyiannis and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Jordi Galí and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Galí and Gertler (1999) developed a hybrid variant of the New Keynesian Phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost, expected future inflation and lagged inflation. GMM estimates of the model suggest that forward looking behavior is dominant: The coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation. While the latter differs significantly from zero, it is quantitatively modest. Several authors have suggested that our results are the product of specification bias or suspect estimation methods. Here we show that these claims are incorrect, and that our results are robust to a variety of estimation procedures, including GMM estimation of the closed form, and nonlinear instrumental variables. Also, as we discuss, many others have obtained very similar results to ours using a systems approach, including FIML techniques. Hence, the conclusions of GG and others regarding the importance of forward looking behavior remain robust.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

Download or read book Closed form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time varying Trend Inflation written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Sophocles N. Brissimis and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period 1970Q1-1998Q2 against the alternative of the Hybrid Phillips curve, which allows for a backward-looking component in the price-setting behavior in the economy. The results are compared to those obtained using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational expectations. The empirical evidence provides, in contrast to most of the relevant literature, considerable support for the standard forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation expectations are measured using official inflation forecasts. In this case, lagged inflation terms become insignificant in the hybrid specification. The usefulness of real unit labor cost as the preferred proxy for real marginal cost in recent empirical work on the Phillips curve is confirmed by our results.

Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations written by G. S. Tavlas and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A theoretical analysis of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is provided, formulating the conditions under which the NKPC coincides with a real-world relation that is not spurious or misspecified. A time-varying-coefficient (TVC) model, involving only observed variables, is shown to exactly represent the underlying “true” NKPC under certain conditions. In contrast, “hybrid” NKPC models, which add lagged-inflation and supply-shock variables, are shown to be spurious and misspecified. We also show how to empirically implement the NKPC under the assumption that expectations are formed rationally.

Download or read book Is There a Phillips Curve A Full Information Partial Equilibrium Approach written by Mr.Roberto Piazza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-08 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve have provided results often inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. To overcome the pitfalls of standard estimations on aggregate data, a Full Information Partial Equilibrium approach is developed to exploit sectoral level data. A model featuring sectoral NKPCs subject to a rich set of shocks is constructed. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural parameters are provided to allow sectoral idiosyncratic components to be linearly extracted. Estimation biases are corrected using the model's restrictions on the partial equilibrium propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. An application to the US, Japan and the UK rejects the purely forward looking, labor cost-based NKPC.

Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve sticky Price wage Model in the U S and Japan written by Masaaki Suzuki and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Dependent Pricing and New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Fang Yao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores what can be lost when assuming price adjustment is a time - independent (memoryless) process.I derive a generalized NKPC in an optinizing model with the non- constant hazard function and trend inflation. Memory emerges in the resulting Phillips curve through the presence of lagged inflation and lagged expectations. It nests the Calvo NKPC as a limitting case in the sense that the effect of both terms are canceled out by one another under the constant-hazard assumption. Furthermore, I find lagged inflation always has negative coefficients, thereby making it impossible to interpret inflation persistence as intrinsic to the model. The numerical evaluation shows that introducing trend inflation strengthens the effects of the increasing hazard function on the inflation dynamics . The model can jointly account for persistent dynamics of inflation and output, hump-shaped impulse responses of inflation to monetary shocks, and the fact that high trend inflation leads to more persistence in inflation but not for real variables.

Download or read book Can the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Explain Japanese Inflation Dynamics written by Ichiro Muto and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for Japan's economy. To obtain a better proxy of real marginal cost (RMC), we correct labor share by incorporating labor adjustment costs, material prices, and real wage rigidity. Our approach is unique in utilizing the information on firms' judgment about the labor gap, which implies the existence of labor adjustment costs. Our results show that the NKPC explains Japanese inflation dynamics quite well if we use the corrected proxy of RMC. Furthermore, we find that Japanese inflation persistence is mostly accounted for by the persistence of RMC itself rather than lagged inflation.--Publisher's description.

Download or read book The Phillips Curve Under State dependent Pricing written by Hasan Bakhshi and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper is related to a large recent literature studying the Phillips curve in sticky-price equilibrium models. It differs in allowing for the degree of price stickiness to be determined endogenously. A closed-form solution for short-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing originally developed by Dotsey, King and Wolman. This generalised Phillips curve encompasses the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on Calvo-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation, and current and expected future real marginal costs. The paper demonstrates that inflation dynamics generated by the model for a broad class of time and state-dependent price-setting behaviours are well approximated by the popular hybrid NKPC (with one lag of inflation) in a low-inflation environment. This provides an explanation of why the hybrid NKPC performs well in describing inflation dynamics across industrial countries. It implies, however, that the reduced-form coefficients of the hybrid NKPC may not have a structural interpretation"--Bank of England web site.

Download or read book Can the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Explain Inflation Gap Persistence written by Fang Yao and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whelan (2007) found that the generalized Calvo-sticky-price model fails to replicate a typical feature of the empirical reduced-form Phillips curve - the positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. In this paper, I show hat it is the 4-period-Taylor-contract hazard function he chose that gives rise to this result. In contrast, an empirically-based aggregate price reset hazard function can generate simulated data that are consistent with inflation gap persistence found in US CPI data. I conclude that a non-constant price reset hazard plays a crucial role for generating realistic inflation dynamics. -- Inflation gap persistence ; Trend inflation ; New Keynesian Phillips curve ; Hazard function

Download or read book Monetary Policy Under Neoclassical and New Keynesian Phillips Curves with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting written by Michael T. Kiley and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Inflation Dynamics written by Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-06 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.