Download or read book Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model written by Alan A. Powell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up of millions of households and fIrms. International economic agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting in the private sector.

Download or read book Global Linkages written by Warwick J. McKibbin and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the 1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the United States went from being the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in international trade flows has had profound effects on the world economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood, they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S. fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad. "

Download or read book Observers and Macroeconomic Systems written by Ric D. Herbert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

Download or read book Global Linkages written by Warwick J. McKibbin and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the 1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the United States went from being the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in international trade flows has had profound effects on the world economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood, they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S. fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad.

Download or read book Empirical Models and Policy Making written by Mary Morgan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.

Download or read book Competitiveness Matters written by Candace Howes and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2010-08-27 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book argues, against the current view, that competitiveness--that is, the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector--matters to the long-term health of the U.S. economy and particularly to its long-term capacity to raise the standard of living of its citizens. The book challenges the arguments popularized most recently by Paul Krugman that competitiveness is a dangerous obsession that distracts us from the question most central to solving the problem of stagnant real income growth, namely, what causes productivity growth, especially in the service sector. The central argument is that, if the U.S. economy is to achieve full employment with rising real wages, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of its tradable goods sector. The book shows that current account deficits cannot be explained by macroeconomic mismanagement but are rather the consequence of an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. It finds that the long-term health of the manufacturing sector requires not only across-the-board policies to remedy problems of low or inefficient investment, but also sectoral policies to address problems that are strategic to resolving the balance of payments problems. Lessons are drawn from the experience of some European and Asian countries. This book will be of interest to economists, political scientists, and business researchers concerned with the place of the manufacturing sector in overall health of the U.S. economy, with issues of industrial policy and industrial restructuring, and with the conditions for rising standards of living. Candace Howes is Associate Professor, Barbara Hogate Ferrin Chair, Connecticut College. Ajit Singh is Professor of Economics, Queens College, Cambridge.

Download or read book Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance written by Aman Ullah and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Empirical Economics and Finance explores the latest developments in the analysis and modeling of economic and financial data. Well-recognized econometric experts discuss the rapidly growing research in economics and finance and offer insight on the future direction of these fields. Focusing on micro models, the first group of chapters describes the statistical issues involved in the analysis of econometric models with cross-sectional data often arising in microeconomics. The book then illustrates time series models that are extensively used in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The last set of chapters explores the types of panel data and spatial models that are becoming increasingly significant in analyzing complex economic behavior and policy evaluations. This handbook brings together both background material and new methodological and applied results that are extremely important to the current and future frontiers in empirical economics and finance. It emphasizes inferential issues that transpire in the analysis of cross-sectional, time series, and panel data-based empirical models in economics, finance, and related disciplines.

Download or read book Financial Markets and Monetary Policy written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The decade of the 1980s left many central bankers disillusioned with monetarism, so that the question of the optimal nominal anchor remains an open one. In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The fifteen papers are divided into three sections, each introduced by the author. They cover, respectively, optimal portfolio diversification, indicators of expected inflation, and the determination of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty. In the first section, Frankel explores what information the theory of optimal portfolio diversification can give the macroeconomist. In the second section, he considers what economic variables central bankers might use to gauge whether monetary policy is too tight or too loose. And in the final section, he looks at the range of uncertainty over policy effects and how that complicates coordination of macroeconomic policymaking. The book concludes with a sympathetic analysis of nominal GDP targeting.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-08-12 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

Download or read book North South Linkages and International Macroeconomic Policy written by David Vines and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-09-21 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers have begun to apply economic techniques initially developed to analyse the industrialised countries to analyse North-South interactions in the world economy. This volume, derived from a CEPR conference, brings together theoretical and empirical papers on fiscal, monetary and trade linkages between the North and South. The papers use the advances in the use of the major macroeconomic models to simulate global and inter-regional interactions, and to analyse the implications for the South of macroeconomic developments in the North. They also examine international policy questions in a genuinely global context, and consider the design of policy packages for the Third World (aid versus trade, growth-oriented adjustment) in an empirical context. This volume provides a useful overview of the flourishing research area relating to interactions between North and South, and highlights areas where future research is needed.

Download or read book How the Economic Transformations in Europe Will Affect the United States written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomic Policies in an Interdependent World written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-06-15 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Copublished with the Brookings Institution, Washington D.C. and the Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, and edited by Ralph Bryant, David Currie, Jacob A. Frenkel, Paul Masson, and Richard Portes, this volume considers economic interdependence among well developed countries as well as between them and the developing regions of the world.

Download or read book Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by John Williamson and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 1994 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.

Download or read book Trade and Investment Relations Among the United States Canada and Japan written by Robert Mitchell Stern and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1989-11-03 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic futures of the United States, Canada, and Japan are tightly linked by the extremely powerful trade network these nations share. Yet because of trade and domestic policies aimed at preserving economic and, some argue, cultural integrity, there has at times been considerable friction among the three nations. Much of the recent trade animus of the U.S. has been aimed Japan, the country with the largest trade surplus with the United States. Canada, the largest trade partner of the U.S., maintains fiscal policies which resemble those of Japan, but has not been the focus of similar concern. Since the actions of each nation reverberate throughout the network, a full and accurate understanding of these complex relations will be essential if ongoing trade negotiations, policymaking, and international relations are to be constructive. The papers in this volume were developed from a conference that addressed the need to discover which structural determinants and policies shape the close economic ties among these nations. Leading experts on trade and macroeconomics from all three countries examine disproportionate saving rates, exchange rate volatility, varying industrial policies and levels of financial innovation, the effects of present tax policies and proposed reforms, and the dynamism of major Pacific nations and the leadership role Japan may play in U.S. relations with that region. Several important conclusions are reached by the contributors. They assert that Japan's trade barriers are relatively low overall and are comparable to those maintained by the United States and Canada, and that divergent fiscal policies have been the major source of macroeconomic imbalances between the United States and other major countries in the 1980s. They also conclude that current trade imbalances may persist for some time. The analyses offered here are likely to prove influential in future policymaking and will be of interest to a wide audience, including academic economists, government officials, and students of theoretical and policy issues of international trade, investment, and finance.

Download or read book International Commercial Policy written by Mordechai Elihau Kreinin and published by Taylor & Francis US. This book was released on 1993 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selection from the papers presented at the International Trade and Finance Association Conference, held in Marseilles in 1991. The book is grouped into four themes: general commercial policy, regional integration, direct foreign investment and the

Download or read book International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations written by William H. Branson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the five largest industrial democracies concluded the Plaza Agreement in 1985, the theory and practice of international economic policy coordination has become the subject of spirited academic and public-policy debate. While some view policy coordination as crucial for the construction of an improved international monetary system, others fear that it risks delaying or weakening the implementation of macroeconomic and structural policies. In these papers and comments, prominent international economists consider past and present interpretations of the meaning of international policy coordination; conditions necessary for coordination to be beneficial both to the direct participants and the global economy; influential factors for the quantitative impact of coordination; obstacles to coordination; the most—and least—effective methods of coordination; and future directions of the coordination process, including processes associated with greater fixity of exchange rates. These studies will be readily accessible to policymakers, while offering sophisticated analyses to interested scholars of the global economy.

Download or read book International Aspects of Fiscal Policies written by Jacob A. Frenkel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together nine papers from a conference on international macroeconomics sponsored by the NBER in 1985. International economists as well as graduate students in the fields of global monetary economics, finance, and macroeconomics will find this an outstanding contribution to current research. It includes two commentaries for each paper, written by experts in the field, and Frenkel's detailed introduction, which serves as a reader's guide to the arguments made, the models employed, and the issues raised by each contributor. The studies analyze national fiscal policies within the context of the international economic order. Malcolm D. Knight and Paul R. Masson use an empirical model to show that fiscal changes in recent years in the United States, West Germany, and Japan have caused major disturbances in net savings and investment flows. Linda S. Kole uses a two-country simulation model to examine the effects of a large nation's expansion on exchange rates, interest rates, and the balance of payments. In other studies, Warwick J. McKibbin and Jeffrey D. Sachs discuss the influences of different currency regimes on the international transmission of inflation; Kent P. Kimbrough analyzes the interaction between optimal tax policies and international trade; Sweder van Wijnbergen investigates the interrelation of fiscal policies, trade intervention, and world interest rates; and Willem H. Buiter uses an analytical model to look at fiscal interdependence and optimal policy design. David Backus, Michael Devereux, and Douglas Purvis develop a theoretical model to investigate effects of different fiscal policies in an open economy. Alan C. Stockman looks at the influence of policy anticipation in the private sector, while Lawrence H. Summers shows the effects of differential tax policy on international competitiveness.