Download or read book The Logic of Surprise in International Conflict written by Alex Roberto Hybel and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1986 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Download or read book Why Not Preempt written by Rachel Bzostek and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-02-11 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anticipatory military activities, which include both preemptive and preventive military actions, are at the centre of American strategic doctrine - however, states rarely use these activities. Rachel Bzostek puts forward an integrated analysis to help understand why states have or have not undertaken such activities in the past. By exploring what kinds of strategic or structural elements compel states or leaders to take anticipatory military action, as well as how these concepts are viewed in both international law and the just war tradition, this book uses case studies to examine those elements that have played an influential role in the decision-making process. Ideal as a course reader for upper division undergraduate and graduates in security studies, international law, US foreign policy and those involved in the teaching and training of the military.
Download or read book Asymmetric Conflicts written by T. V. Paul and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-03-10 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines a question generally neglected in the study of international relations: why does a militarily and economically less powerful state initiate conflict against a relatively strong state? T. V. Paul analyses this phenomenon by focusing on the strategic and political considerations, domestic and international, which influence a weaker state to initiate war against a more powerful adversary. The key argument of deterrence theory is that the military superiority of the status quo power, coupled with a credible retaliatory threat, will prevent attack by challengers. The author challenges this assumption by examining six twentieth-century asymmetric wars, from the Japanese offensive against Russia in 1904 to the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982. The book's findings have wide implications for the study of war, power, deterrence, coercive diplomacy, strategy, arms races, and alliances.
Download or read book Millennial Reflections on International Studies written by Michael Brecher and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2002-08 with total page 714 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DIVCollection of essays that debate the question of progress in the discipline /div
Download or read book Seeing the Invisible written by Thomas Quiggin and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligence is critical to ensuring national security, especially with asymmetric threats making up most of the new challenges. Knowledge, rather than power, is the only weapon that can prevail in a complex and uncertain environment awash with asymmetric threats, some known, many currently unknown. This book shows how such a changing national security environment has had profound implications for the strategic intelligence requirements of states in the 21st century.The book shows up the fallacy underlying the age-old assumption that intelligence agencies must do a better job of connecting the dots and avoiding future failures. It argues that this cannot and will not happen for a variety of reasons. Instead of seeking to predict discrete future events, the strategic intelligence community must focus rather on risk-based anticipatory warnings concerning the nature and impact of a range of potential threats. In this respect, the book argues for a full and creative exploitation of technology to support ? but not supplant ? the work of the strategic intelligence community, and illustrates this ideal with reference to Singapore's path-breaking Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) program.
Download or read book The October 1973 War written by Asaf Siniver and published by Hurst Publishers. This book was released on 2013-09-30 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October War of 1973 (also known as the ‘Yom Kippur War’) was a watershed moment in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the modern Middle East more broadly. It marked the beginning of a US-led peace process between Israel and her Arab neighbours; it introduced oil diplomacy as a new means of leverage in international politics; and it affected irreversibly the development of the European Community and the Palestinian struggle for independence. Moreover, the regional order which emerged at the end of the war remained largely unchallenged for nearly four decades, until the recent wave of democratic revolutions in the Arab world. The fortieth anniversary of the October War provides a timely opportunity to reassess the major themes that emerged during the war and in its aftermath, and the contributors to this book provide the first comprehensive account of the domestic and international factors which informed the policies of Israel, Egypt, Syria and Jordan, as well as external actors before, during and after the war. In addition to chapters on the superpowers, the EU and the Palestinians, the book also deals with the strategic themes of intelligence and political economy, as well as the socio-political legacy of the war on Israeli and Arab societies.
Download or read book Decisionmaking on War and Peace written by Nehemia Geva and published by Lynne Rienner Publishers. This book was released on 1997 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviewing, comparing, and contrasting models of foreign policy, this volume focuses on the cognitive vs rational debate about decisionmaking on war and peace. It provides alternative models of foreign policy choice and identifies when one strategy is more appropriate than another.
Download or read book Power Over Rationality written by Alex Roberto Hybel and published by SUNY Press. This book was released on 1993-01-01 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To most Americans, the Gulf War symbolizes the culmination of a highly sophisticated decision-making process within the Bush administration. In this highly readable and challenging book, Hybel demonstrates the shortcomings of such a view by using cognitive models to examine how the administration defined problems, identified goals, assessed alternatives, and selected options during the seven months preceding the start of the war. This book will prove to be a critical contribution to the understanding of the Bush administration's thinking process during the Gulf crisis and of the value of cognitive models in explaining foreign policy making.
Download or read book The Power of Ideology written by Alex Roberto Hybel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the Roman Empire, leaders have used ideology to organize the masses and instil amongst them a common consciousness, and equally to conquer, assimilate, or repel alternative ideologies. Ideology has been used to help create, safeguard, expand, or tear down political communities, states, empires, and regional or world systems. This book explores the multiple effects that competing ideologies have had on the world system for the past 1,700 years: the author examines the nature and content of Christianity, Islam, Confucianism, Protestantism, secularism, balance-of-power doctrine, nationalism, imperialism, anti-imperialist nationalism, liberalism, communism, fascism, Nazism, ethno-nationalism, and transnational radical Islamism; alongside the effects their originators sought to craft and the consequences they generated. This book argues that for centuries world actors have aspired to propagate through the world arena a structure of meaning that reflected their own system of beliefs, values and ideas: this would effectively promote and protect their material interests, and - believing their system to be superior to all others – they felt morally obliged to spread it. Radical transnational Islamism, Hybel argues, is driven by the same set of goals. This book will be of interest to students and scholars of international politics, international relations theory, history and political philosophy.
Download or read book International Conflict written by Jacob Bercovitch and published by CQ-Roll Call Group Books. This book was released on 1997 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique study of 50 years of conflict and resolution allows readers to understand every important conflict from 1945 to 1995, and to trace recurring or related conflicts throughout this period. Concise, insightful summaries reveal the context, management, and aftermath of nearly 300 international conflicts. Introductory chapters synthesize common elements and issues across the decades and around the globe. Arranged chronologically, summaries of nearly 300 conflicts describe the history, circumstances, players, management, and outcome of each incident. Introductory chapters set out basic elements and issues in international conflict and conflict management and analyze the underlying issues, the countries involved, and the management techniques employed. Illustrated with diagrams and detailed maps of many of the most conflictridden areas of the world, the book contains an extensive list of references, organized by region, that directs the reader to additional information. A thorough index and extensive cross references allow the reader to identify and follow related conflicts.
Download or read book Fool Me Twice Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism written by Thomas Copeland and published by BRILL. This book was released on 2007-07-30 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.
Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Download or read book The Yom Kippur War written by Asaf Siniver and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-10-01 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Yom Kippur War was a watershed moment in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the modern Middle East more broadly. It marked the beginning of a US-led peace process between Israel and her Arab neighbours; it introduced oil diplomacy as a new means of leverage in international politics; and it affected irreversibly the development of the European Community and the Palestinian struggle for independence. Moreover, the regional order which emerged at the end of the war remained largely unchallenged for nearly four decades, until the recent wave of democratic revolutions in the Arab world. The fortieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War provides a timely opportunity to reassess the major themes that emerged during the war and in its aftermath, and the contributors to this book provide the first comprehensive account of the domestic and international factors which informed the policies of Israel, Egypt, Syria and Jordan, as well as external actors before, during and after the war. In addition to chapters on the superpowers, the EU and the Palestinians, the book also deals with the strategic themes of intelligence and political of the war on Israeli and Arab societies.
Download or read book Paradoxes of War written by Zeev Maoz and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2020-12-22 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do reasonable people lead their nations into the tremendously destructive traps of international conflict? Why do nations then deepen their involvement and make it harder to escape from these traps? In Paradoxes of War, originally published in 1990, Zeev Maoz addresses these and other paradoxical questions about the war process. Using a unique approach to the study of war, he demonstrates that wars may often break out because states wish to prevent them, and continue despite the desperate efforts of the combatants to end them. Paradoxes of War is organized around the various stages of war. The first part discusses the causes of war, the second the management of war, and the third the short- and long-term implications of war. In each chapter Maoz explores a different paradox as a contradiction between reasonable expectations and the outcomes of motivated behaviour based on those expectations. He documents these paradoxes in twentieth century wars, including the Korean War, the Six Day War, and the Vietnam War. Maoz then invokes cognitive and rational choice theories to explain why these paradoxes arise. Paradoxes of War is essential reading for students and scholars of international politics, war and peace studies, international relations theory, and political science in general.
Download or read book Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts written by Mark F. Cancian and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.
Download or read book Strange Victory written by Ernest R. May and published by Hill and Wang. This book was released on 2015-07-28 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ernest R. May's Strange Victory presents a dramatic narrative-and reinterpretation-of Germany's six-week campaign that swept the Wehrmacht to Paris in spring 1940. Before the Nazis killed him for his work in the French Resistance, the great historian Marc Bloch wrote a famous short book, Strange Defeat, about the treatment of his nation at the hands of an enemy the French had believed they could easily dispose of. In Strange Victory, the distinguished American historian Ernest R. May asks the opposite question: How was it that Hitler and his generals managed this swift conquest, considering that France and its allies were superior in every measurable dimension and considering the Germans' own skepticism about their chances? Strange Victory is a riveting narrative of those six crucial weeks in the spring of 1940, weaving together the decisions made by the high commands with the welter of confused responses from exhausted and ill-informed, or ill-advised, officers in the field. Why did Hitler want to turn against France at just this moment, and why were his poor judgment and inadequate intelligence about the Allies nonetheless correct? Why didn't France take the offensive when it might have led to victory? What explains France's failure to detect and respond to Germany's attack plan? It is May's contention that in the future, nations might suffer strange defeats of their own if they do not learn from their predecessors' mistakes in judgment.
