Download or read book The Logic of Intelligence Analysis written by Karl Spielmann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-06-12 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Download or read book Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts written by Noel Hendrickson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2018-03-29 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.
Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Download or read book Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis written by Gregory F. Treverton and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-02-27 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence Hypotheses and Arguments written by Gheorghe Tecuci and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.
Download or read book The Six Secrets of Intelligence written by Craig Adams and published by Icon Books. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some people have something to say in any conversation and can spot the hidden angles of completely unrelated problems; but how do they do it? So many books, apps, courses, and schools compete for our attention that the problem isn't a lack of opportunity to sharpen our minds, it's having to choose between so many options. And yet, more than two thousand years ago, the greatest thinker of Ancient Greece, Aristotle, had already discovered the blueprint of the human mind. Despite the fact that the latest cognitive science shows his blueprint to be exactly what sharpens our reasoning, subtlety of thought, and ability to think in different ways and for ourselves, we have meanwhile replaced it with a simplistic and seductive view of intelligence, education and the mind. Condensing that blueprint to six 'secrets', Craig Adams uncovers the underlying patterns of every discussion and debate we've ever had, and shows us how to be both harder to manipulate and more skilful in any conversation or debate – no matter the topic.
Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.
Download or read book Rigid Flexibility written by Pei Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-01 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the most comprehensive description of the decades-long Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS) project, including its philosophical foundation, methodological consideration, conceptual design details, implications in the related fields, and its similarities and differences to many related works in cognitive science. While most current works in Artificial Intelligence (AI) focus on individual aspects of intelligence and cognition, NARS is designed and developed to attack the AI problem as a whole.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Download or read book Artificial General Intelligence written by Ben Goertzel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-01-17 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Only a small community has concentratedon general intelligence. No one has tried to make a thinking machine . . . The bottom line is that we really haven’t progressed too far toward a truly intelligent machine. We have collections of dumb specialists in small domains; the true majesty of general intelligence still awaits our attack. . . . We have got to get back to the deepest questions of AI and general intelligence. . . ” –MarvinMinsky as interviewed in Hal’s Legacy, edited by David Stork, 2000. Our goal in creating this edited volume has been to ?ll an apparent gap in the scienti?c literature, by providing a coherent presentation of a body of contemporary research that, in spite of its integral importance, has hitherto kept a very low pro?le within the scienti?c and intellectual community. This body of work has not been given a name before; in this book we christen it “Arti?cial General Intelligence” (AGI). What distinguishes AGI work from run-of-the-mill “arti?cial intelligence” research is that it is explicitly focused on engineering general intelligence in the short term. We have been active researchers in the AGI ?eld for many years, and it has been a pleasure to gather together papers from our colleagues working on related ideas from their own perspectives. In the Introduction we give a conceptual overview of the AGI ?eld, and also summarize and interrelate the key ideas of the papers in the subsequent chapters.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Wayne Michael Hall and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2009-12-22 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.
Download or read book Intelligence Driven Incident Response written by Scott J Roberts and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2017-08-21 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a well-conceived incident response plan in the aftermath of an online security breach enables your team to identify attackers and learn how they operate. But, only when you approach incident response with a cyber threat intelligence mindset will you truly understand the value of that information. With this practical guide, you’ll learn the fundamentals of intelligence analysis, as well as the best ways to incorporate these techniques into your incident response process. Each method reinforces the other: threat intelligence supports and augments incident response, while incident response generates useful threat intelligence. This book helps incident managers, malware analysts, reverse engineers, digital forensics specialists, and intelligence analysts understand, implement, and benefit from this relationship. In three parts, this in-depth book includes: The fundamentals: get an introduction to cyber threat intelligence, the intelligence process, the incident-response process, and how they all work together Practical application: walk through the intelligence-driven incident response (IDIR) process using the F3EAD process—Find, Fix Finish, Exploit, Analyze, and Disseminate The way forward: explore big-picture aspects of IDIR that go beyond individual incident-response investigations, including intelligence team building
Download or read book Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence written by Katherine Hibbs Pherson and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2020-08-14 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? The Third Edition includes suggested best practices for dealing with digital disinformation, politicization, and AI. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.
Download or read book Prerational Intelligence written by Holk Cruse and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
