Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Forecasting written by Steven Sabol and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) have brought attention to forecasting the labor market using the bathtub model. In addition Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) have made substantial advances to the spillover literature by introducing connectedness tables and plots. We blend the two works to answer two interrelated questions: Are measures of steady-state relationships as implied by gross flows data "connected" to their stock-based counterparts? And second, if the measures are related, how can we produce reliable forecasts with gross flows data? We propose a new method to exploit information embedded in labor flows data to forecast the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio. The forecast evaluation suggests that understanding flow-based methods pays off. In particular, we find forecasting performance to be superior at longer-horizons and conclude that some measures of the labor market become more connected at longer horizons.
Download or read book The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment written by Regis Barnichon and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education written by Hans Heijke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labour markets are differentiated by occupation and types of training, and these submarkets are seldom in equilibrium. This disequilibrium -- shortages and surpluses in labour markets -- is often attributed to a lack of flexibility in wage structures, the limited possibility for substitution between submarkets, and the high adjustment costs. In addition, market changes are difficult to foresee, thus making it equally difficult to respond appropriately. This book contains the results of research from three major European institutes -- the Research Centre for Education and the Labor Market (ROA) at the University of Limburg in the Netherlands, the Institute for Employment Research (IER) at the University of Warwick in the U.K., and Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) at the Bundesanstalt für Arbeit in Germany -- looking at how each institute conducts labour market forecasts by education and type of training. The common element of these institutes is their use of the manpower requirements method. The book is grouped into three parts -- Models and Methods, Forecasts, and Reflections -- with each institute presenting its results in each section.
Download or read book Hysteresis in Labor Markets Evidence from Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.
Download or read book Building America s Skilled Technical Workforce written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-06-04 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Skilled technical occupationsâ€"defined as occupations that require a high level of knowledge in a technical domain but do not require a bachelor's degree for entryâ€"are a key component of the U.S. economy. In response to globalization and advances in science and technology, American firms are demanding workers with greater proficiency in literacy and numeracy, as well as strong interpersonal, technical, and problem-solving skills. However, employer surveys and industry and government reports have raised concerns that the nation may not have an adequate supply of skilled technical workers to achieve its competitiveness and economic growth objectives. In response to the broader need for policy information and advice, Building America's Skilled Technical Workforce examines the coverage, effectiveness, flexibility, and coordination of the policies and various programs that prepare Americans for skilled technical jobs. This report provides action-oriented recommendations for improving the American system of technical education, training, and certification.
Download or read book Ukraine s Revolt Russia s Revenge written by Christopher M. Smith and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2022-03-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This firsthand account of contemporary history is key to understanding Russia's latest assault on its neighbor."—USA Today An eyewitness account by a U.S. diplomat of Russia’s brazen attempt to undo the democratic revolution in Ukraine Told from the perspective of a U.S. diplomat in Kyiv, this book is the true story of Ukraine’s anti-corruption revolution in 2013—14, Russia’s intervention and invasion of that nation, and the limited role played by the United States. It puts into a readable narrative the previously unpublished reporting by seasoned U.S. diplomatic and military professionals, a wealth of information on Ukrainian high-level and street-level politics, a broad analysis of the international context, and vivid descriptions of people and places in Ukraine during the EuroMaidan Revolution. The book also counters Russia’s disinformation narratives about the revolution and America’s role in it. While focusing on a single country during a dramatic three-year period, the book’s universal themes—among them, truth versus lies, democracy versus autocracy—possess a broader urgency for our times. That urgency burns particularly hot for the United States and all other countries that are the targets of Russia's cyber warfare and other forms of political skullduggery. From his posting in U.S. Embassy Kyiv (2012–14), the author observed and reported first-hand on the EuroMaidan Revolution that wrested power from corrupt pro-Kremlin Ukrainian autocrat Viktor Yanukovych. The book also details Russia’s attempt to abort the Ukrainian revolution through threats, economic pressure, lies, and intimidation. When all of that failed, the Kremlin exacted revenge by annexing Ukraine's territory of Crimea and fomenting and sustaining a hybrid war in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 13,000 people and continues to this day. Ukraine's Revolt, Russia’s Revenge is based on the author’s own observations and the multitude of reports of his Embassy colleagues who were eyewitnesses to a crucial event in contemporary history.
Download or read book Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education written by and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1994-03-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: List of Figures. List of Tables. Foreword. Introduction; H. Heijke. Part I: Models and Methods. 1. Modelling and Forecasting the Structure of Employment in the United Kingdom; R. Wilson. 2. Medium and Long-Term Forecasting of Employment in Germany; J. Fuchs, M. Tessaring. 3. Indicating the Future Labour Market Prospects of Occupational Groups and Types of Education in the Netherlands; R. Dekker, A. de Grip, H. Heijke. Part II: Forecasts. 4. Policy Implications of Recent IER Assessments of the British Labour Market; R. Lindley. 5. Manpower Requirements by Levels of Qualification in the Federal Republic of Germany until 2010; M. Tessaring. 6. The Market Position of Occupations and Types of Education in the Netherlands; R. van der Velden, E. Willems. Part III: Reflections. 7. A Perspective on IER Forecasting Activities; R. Lindley. 8. IAB's Medium and Long Term Labour Market Projections -- Selected Aspects; G. KÃ1⁄4hlewind. 9. ROA's Activities and Plans relating to the Information System on Education and the Labour Market; H. Heijke.
Download or read book Occupational Employment Projections for Labor Market Areas written by Harvey A. Goldstein and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: USA. Report presenting a comparison of alternative methodologys for making occupational employment projections at the local level labour market level - considers use of econometric models, input output models and the employer survey approach, and includes recommendations. Bibliography pp. 49 to 51 and diagrams.
Download or read book A Template for Analyzing and Projecting Labor Market Indicators written by Mr.Ralph Chami and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion on how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators.
Download or read book Employment Forecasting written by Mike Hopkins and published by Burns & Oates. This book was released on 1988 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD Countries written by Michael Neugart and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines labour market trends in the 1990s, followed by a presentation of forecasting techniques used to estimate developments in emplyoment and unemployment up to the year 2010.
Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Download or read book Research on Future Skill Demands written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past five years, business and education groups have issued a series of reports indicating that the skill demands of work are rising, due to rapid technological change and increasing global competition. Researchers have begun to study changing workplace skill demands. Some economists have found that technological change is "skill-biased," increasing demand for highly skilled workers and contributing to the growing gap in wages between college-educated workers and those with less education. However, other studies of workplace skill demands have reached different conclusions. These differences result partly from differences in disciplinary perspective, research methods, and datasets. The findings of all of these strands of research on changing skill demands are limited by available methods and data sources. Because case study research focuses on individual work sites or occupations, its results may not be representative of larger industry or national trends. At a more basic level, there is some disagreement in the literature about how to define "skill". In part because of such disagreements, researchers have used a variety of measures of skill, making it difficult to compare findings from different studies or to accumulate knowledge of skill trends over time. In the context of this increasing discussion, the National Research Council held a workshop to explore the available research evidence related to two important guiding questions: What are the strengths and weaknesses of different research methods and data sources for providing insights about current and future changes in skill demands? What support does the available evidence (given the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and data sources) provide for the proposition that the skills required for the 21st century workplace will be meaningfully different from earlier eras and will require corresponding changes in educational preparation?
Download or read book Health Labor Market Analyses in Low and Middle Income Countries written by Richard M. Scheffler and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-10-19 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, produced jointly by the World Bank, the University of California, Berkeley, and the WHO, aims to provide decision-makers at sub-national, national, regional and global levels with additional insights into how to address their workforce challenges rather than describe them. In order to optimize and align HRH investments and develop targeted policy responses, a thorough understanding of unique, country-specific labor market dynamics and determinants of these dynamics is critical. Policies need to take into account the fact that workers are economic actors, responsive to different levels of compensation and opportunities to generate revenue found in different sub-labor markets. Policies need to take into account the behavioral characteristics of the individuals who provide health care, but also the individuals who consume health care services and the institutions that employ health personnel. In other words, it is necessary to understand the determinants of both the supply (numbers of health workers willing to work in the health sector) and the demand for health workers (resources available to hire health workers), how these interact, and how this interaction varies in different contexts. This interaction will determine the availability of health personnel, their distribution as well as their performance levels, thus ensuring stronger health systems capable to deliver universal health coverage. The book is structured to be of use to researchers, planners, and economists who are tasked with analyzing key areas of health labor markets, including overall labor market assessments as well as and more narrow and targeted analyses of demand and supply (including production and migration), performance, and remuneration of health workers. The chapters, written by a number of internationally renowned experts on Human Resources for Health, discuss data sources and empirical tools that can be used to assess health labor markets across high-, middle- or low-income countries, but draws primarily from examples and case-studies in LMICs.
Download or read book Concepts and Methodology for Labour Market Forecasts by Occupation and Qualification in the Context of a Flexible Labour Market written by Lex Borghans and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: 1.Introduction - 2.The interpretation of requirements - 3.Substitution processes on the labour market - 4.Modelling substitution processes - 5.Results - 6.Conclusions.
Download or read book Manpower Planning in a Market Economy with Labor Market Signals written by Arvil Van Adams and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Roles of the manpower planner; Abandoning manpower requirements forecasting; Introducing labor market signalling; Sources of labor market information.
Download or read book How to Forecast A Guide for Business written by James Morrell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2001. Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book offers a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. The author goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those that are, such as costs, prices, profits and product development.
