Download or read book The Informational Content of the Implied Volatility Surface in Commodity Markets written by Jörg Stephan Cyriax and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis extends the findings on implied moments in equity markets to commodities and presents supporting evidence for demand-based option pricing and informed trading. Different implied moments measured by various metrics which are calculated based on a set of maturities and moneyness levels as well as their innovations are subject of the presented investigations. The sample comprises the 24 GSCI commodities in the period from January 2006 until June 2017. Several portfolio sorts and additional predictive fixed effects panel regressions confirm an economically and statistically significant negative predictive ability of innovations of relative implied skewness which increases with maturity and distance from at-the-money. This predictive ability is almost purely driven by the anticipation of lower returns, i.e. downside jump risk. A low-minus-high trading strategy based on innovations of implied skewness is constructed returning 11.90\% p.a. (after transaction costs of 0.033\% per trade and with 50\% collateralization) which cannot be explained by common commodity factors. The underlying predictive ability can be reasoned with better information of some market participants (informed trading) whose option demand causes the implied volatility smile to adjust accordingly. Eventually, concurrent and predictive effects of implied volatility and implied skewness for the commodity basis are found which may lay the foundation for extending the implied moments-related research to physical variables.
Download or read book The Informational Content of Implied Volatility written by Linda Canina and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Information Content of Implied Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets written by Pierre Giot and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting written by Henri Theil and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subjects covered include econometric macromodels, preliminary estimates of recent changes input-outputs, forecast applications of information concepts and various survey techniques dealing ...
Download or read book Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options written by Thi Le and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Download or read book The Volatility Smile written by Emanuel Derman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Volatility Smile The Black-Scholes-Merton option model was the greatest innovation of 20th century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models The first half of the book, Chapters 1 through 13, can serve as a standalone textbook for a course on option valuation and the Black-Scholes-Merton model, presenting the principles of financial modeling, several derivations of the model, and a detailed discussion of how it is used in practice. The second half focuses on the behavior of the volatility smile, and, in conjunction with the first half, can be used for as the basis for a more advanced course.
Download or read book Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Download or read book Volatility Trading website written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Download or read book Volatility Surface and Term Structure written by Kin Keung Lai and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides different financial models based on options to predict underlying asset price and design the risk hedging strategies. Authors of the book have made theoretical innovation to these models to enable the models to be applicable to real market. The book also introduces risk management and hedging strategies based on different criterions. These strategies provide practical guide for real option trading. This book studies the classical stochastic volatility and deterministic volatility models. For the former, the classical Heston model is integrated with volatility term structure. The correlation of Heston model is considered to be variable. For the latter, the local volatility model is improved from experience of financial practice. The improved local volatility surface is then used for price forecasting. VaR and CVaR are employed as standard criterions for risk management. The options trading strategies are also designed combining different types of options and they have been proven to be profitable in real market. This book is a combination of theory and practice. Users will find the applications of these financial models in real market to be effective and efficient.
Download or read book Option Pricing Models and Volatility Using Excel VBA written by Fabrice D. Rouah and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-06-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive guide offers traders, quants, and students the tools and techniques for using advanced models for pricing options. The accompanying website includes data files, such as options prices, stock prices, or index prices, as well as all of the codes needed to use the option and volatility models described in the book. Praise for Option Pricing Models & Volatility Using Excel-VBA "Excel is already a great pedagogical tool for teaching option valuation and risk management. But the VBA routines in this book elevate Excel to an industrial-strength financial engineering toolbox. I have no doubt that it will become hugely successful as a reference for option traders and risk managers." —Peter Christoffersen, Associate Professor of Finance, Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University "This book is filled with methodology and techniques on how to implement option pricing and volatility models in VBA. The book takes an in-depth look into how to implement the Heston and Heston and Nandi models and includes an entire chapter on parameter estimation, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Everyone interested in derivatives should have this book in their personal library." —Espen Gaarder Haug, option trader, philosopher, and author of Derivatives Models on Models "I am impressed. This is an important book because it is the first book to cover the modern generation of option models, including stochastic volatility and GARCH." —Steven L. Heston, Assistant Professor of Finance, R.H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Option Pricing written by Iain J. Clark and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-18 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers foreign exchange options from the point of view of the finance practitioner. It contains everything a quant or trader working in a bank or hedge fund would need to know about the mathematics of foreign exchange—not just the theoretical mathematics covered in other books but also comprehensive coverage of implementation, pricing and calibration. With content developed with input from traders and with examples using real-world data, this book introduces many of the more commonly requested products from FX options trading desks, together with the models that capture the risk characteristics necessary to price these products accurately. Crucially, this book describes the numerical methods required for calibration of these models – an area often neglected in the literature, which is nevertheless of paramount importance in practice. Thorough treatment is given in one unified text to the following features: Correct market conventions for FX volatility surface construction Adjustment for settlement and delayed delivery of options Pricing of vanillas and barrier options under the volatility smile Barrier bending for limiting barrier discontinuity risk near expiry Industry strength partial differential equations in one and several spatial variables using finite differences on nonuniform grids Fourier transform methods for pricing European options using characteristic functions Stochastic and local volatility models, and a mixed stochastic/local volatility model Three-factor long-dated FX model Numerical calibration techniques for all the models in this work The augmented state variable approach for pricing strongly path-dependent options using either partial differential equations or Monte Carlo simulation Connecting mathematically rigorous theory with practice, this is the essential guide to foreign exchange options in the context of the real financial marketplace.
Download or read book Principles of Financial Engineering written by Robert Kosowski and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-11-26 with total page 893 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Financial Engineering, Third Edition, is a highly acclaimed text on the fast-paced and complex subject of financial engineering. This updated edition describes the "engineering" elements of financial engineering instead of the mathematics underlying it. It shows how to use financial tools to accomplish a goal rather than describing the tools themselves. It lays emphasis on the engineering aspects of derivatives (how to create them) rather than their pricing (how they act) in relation to other instruments, the financial markets, and financial market practices. This volume explains ways to create financial tools and how the tools work together to achieve specific goals. Applications are illustrated using real-world examples. It presents three new chapters on financial engineering in topics ranging from commodity markets to financial engineering applications in hedge fund strategies, correlation swaps, structural models of default, capital structure arbitrage, contingent convertibles, and how to incorporate counterparty risk into derivatives pricing. Poised midway between intuition, actual events, and financial mathematics, this book can be used to solve problems in risk management, taxation, regulation, and above all, pricing. A solutions manual enhances the text by presenting additional cases and solutions to exercises. This latest edition of Principles of Financial Engineering is ideal for financial engineers, quantitative analysts in banks and investment houses, and other financial industry professionals. It is also highly recommended to graduate students in financial engineering and financial mathematics programs. The Third Edition presents three new chapters on financial engineering in commodity markets, financial engineering applications in hedge fund strategies, correlation swaps, structural models of default, capital structure arbitrage, contingent convertibles and how to incorporate counterparty risk into derivatives pricing, among other topics Additions, clarifications, and illustrations throughout the volume show these instruments at work instead of explaining how they should act The solutions manual enhances the text by presenting additional cases and solutions to exercises
