Download or read book The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle written by Mark Gertler and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The market for high yield (below investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s. We show that, since this time, the high yield spread has had significant explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in the business cycle, along the lines suggested by the financial accelerator. We also show that over this period the high yield spread outperforms other leading financial indicators, including the term spread, the paper-bill spread and the Federal Funds rate. We conjecture that changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time may account for the reduced informativeness of these alternative indicators, all of which are tied closely to monetary policy.
Download or read book The Information in the High Bond Spread for the Business Cycle Evidence and Some Implications written by Mark Gertler and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Download or read book A U S Financial Conditions Index written by Andrew Swiston and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses vector autoregressions and impulse-response functions to construct a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI). Credit availability—proxied by survey results on lending standards—is an important driver of the business cycle, accounting for over 20 percent of the typical contribution of financial factors to growth. A net tightening in lending standards of 20 percentage points reduces economic activity by ¾ percent after one year and 1¼ percent after two years. Much of the impact of monetary policy on the economy also works through its effects on credit supply, which is evidence supporting the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy. Shocks to corporate bond yields, equity prices, and real exchange rates also contribute to fluctuations in the FCI. This FCI is an accurate predictor of real GDP growth, anticipating turning points in activity with a lead time of six to nine months. 15B
Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Download or read book Foundations of High Yield Analysis written by Martin S. Fridson and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2018-08-27 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the advent some 40 years ago of a vibrant primary market for speculative-grade corporate bonds, the high-yield market has evolved from a niche occupied by a small group of specialists into a full-fledged institutional investment category. Asset allocators and portfolio managers now have at their disposal the tools necessary for rigorous investment analysis, including financial statements of the issuers, indexes, trading prices, historical default rates, and time series on such credit factors as liquidity, ratings, and covenant quality. This research brief provides up-to-date techniques for extracting from the extensive data the information that can lead to sound investment decisions.
Download or read book The Statistical Analysis of Discrete Data written by Thomas J. Santner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Statistical Analysis of Discrete Data provides an introduction to cur rent statistical methods for analyzing discrete response data. The book can be used as a course text for graduate students and as a reference for researchers who analyze discrete data. The book's mathematical prereq uisites are linear algebra and elementary advanced calculus. It assumes a basic statistics course which includes some decision theory, and knowledge of classical linear model theory for continuous response data. Problems are provided at the end of each chapter to give the reader an opportunity to ap ply the methods in the text, to explore extensions of the material covered, and to analyze data with discrete responses. In the text examples, and in the problems, we have sought to include interesting data sets from a wide variety of fields including political science, medicine, nuclear engineering, sociology, ecology, cancer research, library science, and biology. Although there are several texts available on discrete data analysis, we felt there was a need for a book which incorporated some of the myriad recent research advances. Our motivation was to introduce the subject by emphasizing its ties to the well-known theories of linear models, experi mental design, and regression diagnostics, as well as to describe alterna tive methodologies (Bayesian, smoothing, etc. ); the latter are based on the premise that external information is available. These overriding goals, to gether with our own experiences and biases, have governed our choice of topics.
Download or read book Interest Rates Prices and Liquidity written by Jagjit S. Chadha and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-27 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many of the assumptions that underpin mainstream macroeconomic models have been challenged as a result of the traumatic events of the recent financial crisis. Thus, until recently, it was widely agreed that although the stock of money had a role to play, in practice it could be ignored as long as we used short-term nominal interest rates as the instrument of policy because money and other credit markets would clear at the given policy rate. However, very early on in the financial crisis interest rates effectively hit zero percent and so central banks had to resort to a wholly new set of largely untested instruments to restore order, including quantitative easing and the purchase of toxic financial assets. This book brings together contributions from economists working in academia, financial markets and central banks to assess the effectiveness of these policy instruments and explore what lessons have so far been learned.
Download or read book Proceedings of the 2nd Advances in Business Research International Conference written by Fauziah Noordin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-17 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the refereed proceedings of the 2nd Advances in Business Research International Conference (ABRIC2016). Chapters in the book address the theme of Advancing Knowledge, Connecting the World, reflecting on the emerging issues in various business management fields and the interconnections of multiple disciplines for creating knowledge advancement. Papers were carefully reviewed and selected and grouped into four main themes: economic and finance, marketing and communications, management, and information technology in business. The book serves as a helpful resource for students and researchers of business management, especially in understanding issues and cases of business in emerging economies and markets.
Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy s Risk Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Download or read book Beyond Junk Bonds written by Glenn Yago and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2003-03-27 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since financial myths exploded in the 1980s, the perspective of time creates a unique opportunity to update and expand the analysis begun in Glenn Yago's 1991 book, Junk Bonds: How High Yield Securities Restructured Corporate America (Oxford University Press). At the time of its publication, Junk Bonds drew controversial responses from the Federal Reserve and government agencies. In retrospect, the evidence clearly casts favorable light on the role of high yield securities. The research presented here demonstrates how financial innovations enabled capital access for industrial restructuring, capital and labor productivity gains, and improved global competitiveness. Enough time has now passed to allow this dispassionate empirical analysis to shear away the hype and hysteria that surrounded the Wall Street scandals, Washington controversies, and media frenzy of the time. Beyond Junk Bonds provides a one-stop data, reference and case study presentation of the firms and securities in the contemporary high yield market and the financial innovations that spurred growth in the nineties and will continue to finance the future. The high yield market incubated successive waves of financial technologies that now proliferate beyond junk bonds to all the dimensions and dynamics of global debt and equity capital markets. It charts the recovery of the market in the 1990s, the recent wave of fallen angels, distressed credits and defaults, and suggests how the high yield market will be recreated in the global market of the 21st century. It explicates the linkages between the high yield market, and other credit and equity markets in managing a firm's capital structure to execute its business strategy. The weakening of the U. S. economy in 2001 and the huge shock to Wall Street from the terrorist attacks of September 11 witnessed a historic increase in the yield to maturity of high yield bonds. Despite the volatility in the flow of funds to high yield mutual funds and occasionally sharp increases in non-investment grade debt yields, the asset class has been one of the best performing fixed income investments of the past decades. In fact, high yield bonds offer an attractive risk-reward ratio competitive with more traditional asset classes. Anyone active in corporate finance, financial institutions and capital markets will find this book a must read for interpreting and understanding the recent history both of the high yield marketplace and its interaction with private equity, public equity, and fixed income markets.
Download or read book A U S Financial Conditions Index written by Mr.Andrew Swiston and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses vector autoregressions and impulse-response functions to construct a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI). Credit availability—proxied by survey results on lending standards—is an important driver of the business cycle, accounting for over 20 percent of the typical contribution of financial factors to growth. A net tightening in lending standards of 20 percentage points reduces economic activity by 3⁄4 percent after one year and 11⁄4 percent after two years. Much of the impact of monetary policy on the economy also works through its effects on credit supply, which is evidence supporting the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy. Shocks to corporate bond yields, equity prices, and real exchange rates also contribute to fluctuations in the FCI. This FCI is an accurate predictor of real GDP growth, anticipating turning points in activity with a lead time of six to nine months. 15B
Download or read book Recent Developments in Cointegration written by Katarina Juselius and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-07-05 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Recent Developments in Cointegration" that was published in Econometrics
Download or read book Insurance Operations Regulation and Statutory Accounting written by Ann E. Myhr and published by Insurance Institute of America. This book was released on 2003 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Textbook for students of insurance that examines types of insurers, regulation, marketing, the underwriting process, ratemaking, claims adjusting, reinsurance, financial management, and strategic management.
Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
