Download or read book The Information Content of Individual Forecasts in the Combination of Forecasts written by Mark M. Moriarity and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Information Content of Individual Forecasts in the Combination of Forecasts written by Mark M. Moriarty and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Boundary Value Models for the Combination of Forecasts written by Mark M. Moriarity and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book Combining Ranked Mean Value Forecasts written by Mehdi Mostaghimi and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In modeling a combination of forecasts all the information related to the past performance of the individual forecasts, including accuracy and correlation, is considered. In this paper I have extended the modeling to incorporate a rank ordering of the forecasts by a decision maker. This ordering could be based on the expectations of a decision maker or on the judgment of an expert about the relative future performance of the forecasts. The problem is set up as a likelihood function of the individual forecasts given the combined forecast. It is shown that this likelihood function is approximately an exponential function of a relative entropy information measure. The maximum likelihood combined forecast is a weighted linear function of the individual forecasts, where the weights are a function of the past performance of the individual forecasts, the correlations between the forecasts and the decision maker's ranking of the forecasts. It is shown that ranking is effective only when the forecasts are correlated: the greater the correlation, the more effective the ranking. A sample application of this methodology to forecasting U.S. hog prices shows that ordering forecasts according to their individual performances produces a very robust and accurate combined forecast; however, this forecast is not the most accurate among the combined forecasts.
Download or read book Financial Analysts Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 1000 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Entropy Application for Forecasting written by Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows the potential of entropy and information theory in forecasting, including both theoretical developments and empirical applications. The contents cover a great diversity of topics, such as the aggregation and combination of individual forecasts, the comparison of forecasting performance, and the debate concerning the tradeoff between complexity and accuracy. Analyses of forecasting uncertainty, robustness, and inconsistency are also included, as are proposals for new forecasting approaches. The proposed methods encompass a variety of time series techniques (e.g., ARIMA, VAR, state space models) as well as econometric methods and machine learning algorithms. The empirical contents include both simulated experiments and real-world applications focusing on GDP, M4-Competition series, confidence and industrial trend surveys, and stock exchange composite indices, among others. In summary, this collection provides an engaging insight into entropy applications for forecasting, offering an interesting overview of the current situation and suggesting possibilities for further research in this field.
Download or read book Range Has It written by Michael (Minye) Tang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Range forecasts have emerged as the predominant form of management forecasts, but prior research has overlooked the information conveyed by forecast ranges. This study fills this void by examining the information content of the extent to which managers' forecast ranges overlap with the range of individual analysts' pre-existing estimates (i.e., overlap). We expect managers to signal their superior private information by issuing low-overlap forecasts. We predict and find that, compared with high-overlap forecasts, low-overlap forecasts are associated with stronger market reactions and higher accuracy of management forecasts relative to analyst estimates. Moreover, when responding to low-overlap management forecasts, analysts with prior estimates out of management forecast ranges are more likely to revise into the management forecast range, less likely to revise toward the consensus, and more likely to improve in revised forecast accuracy. Our findings suggest that investors and analysts view low-overlap management forecasts as signals of superior private information.
Download or read book Feature Papers of Forecasting written by Sonia Leva and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, forecast applications are receiving unprecedent attention thanks to their capability to improve the decision-making processes by providing useful indications. A large number of forecast approaches related to different forecast horizons and to the specific problem that have to be predicted have been proposed in recent scientific literature, from physical models to data-driven statistic and machine learning approaches. In this Special Issue, the most recent and high-quality researches about forecast are collected. A total of nine papers have been selected to represent a wide range of applications, from weather and environmental predictions to economic and management forecasts. Finally, some applications related to the forecasting of the different phases of COVID in Spain and the photovoltaic power production have been presented.
Download or read book Optimally Combining Individual Forecasts from Panel Data written by Tilman Ehrbeck and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-27 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Download or read book Ebook Business Forecasting and Modelling written by J. Holton Wilson and published by McGraw Hill. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 527 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sixth Edition of Business Forecasting is the most practical forecasting book on the market with the most powerful software—Forecast X. This edition presents a broad-based survey of business forecasting methods including subjective and objective approaches. As always, the author team of Wilson and Keating deliver practical how-to forecasting techniques, along with dozens of real world data sets while theory and math are held to a minimum. This Sixth Edition includes Forecast X software updated for Excel 2007 and Vista. Forecast X is the most comprehensive software tool available in this market and the new version is also backwards compatible for XP Excel 2003 systems. This Excel-based tool effectively uses wizards and many tools to make forecasting easy and understandable.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Forecasting in Military Affairs written by I︠U︡riĭ Vasilʹevich Chuev and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a rather broad review on an international scale of recent thinking on the subject of scientific planning, forecasting, and decisionmaking as it relates to the military. The scientific approach to these matters is observed to be highly essential in an age in which scientific and technical development gives rise to rapid changes in weapons and techniques. The results of the use of nuclear weapons are likely to be such as to deny decisionmakers the luxury approach to their task. Scientific forecasting is proposed as a means of ensuring the rapid production of soundly based information on which to make proper decisions in military affairs. It is not put forth as a substitute for the thinking of talented and experienced military experts but as a means for them to achieve their decisions in a more timely and scientific manner. The authors employ a mathematical-statistical approach in arriving at their hypothetical forecasts, and, particularly because of the numerous examples of forecasting situations to which these techniques are applied, those involved or interested in the activity should be able to confirm their understanding of the methods of arrival at the various conclusions.
